Grinder's Iteration on Stiflers NBA Chase

I've been a system player for 50+ years and loving following other people system. Problem is most systems fail after one great year - HOWEVER - there are always parts of the systems that did not fail and I take those - tweak them a little and carry on.

Anybody play played Stiflers NBA chase system last knows how it did - HOWEVER - there were parts that worked great not ONLY chasing - but in standard wagering. That is the key!

SO - I'll post the good parts of his system. I'll do a few things differently though.

I will not play a team that is going against it self. Won't even post it. There is zero reason to bet ON a team AND bet against a team. It won't happen a lot but happens on the fist first night (tomorrow night - go figure).

In case you are wondering S3Follows and all S4s.

You do not have to chase - they make money as is - but chasing will double your profits . . . or not, at least last year it would have.

First games are tomorrow - I'll post them in the morning and I'll figure out the bast format as we go.

Standard betting you should win about 14 units
Chase betting with MUCH more risk - on average about 37 units - this is not a get rich quick system, but remember - 99% of all sports wagerers lose money in the long run.

And yes - I did clear this with Stif.

GL this season Grinder.

Prelim games - no real lines yet

Nov 1
1A Oklahoma City +2

good stuff! 4 game chase or 3 game chase

Some are 4 game chases, some will be 3 game with an option for single standard bets. I'll post that when impost the game.

11/2013 0-0 +0.00 units won

1A(4*) Oklahoma City 1.10u +2.5 Locked

Explanation - Example (1A(4*) Oklahoma City 1.10u +/-?? ) +2 waiting
1A = game designation so we don't get confused, 2nd game will be 1B and so forth
(4) = 4 game chase
(4*) = 4 game chase but with a straight bet option
(3) = 3 game chase
CITY = this is the team to wager on - I will not post the other team
1.10u = units wagered
+/-?? = this is the line that will be used - typically the line I got. Might not be the BEST line available. This is ALWAYS a problem with point spreads just like roads are always a problem in towns. Just gotta deal with it. I'll be fair with no weirdo line. Some days I can wait and some I can't.
+2 waiting = line at posting and my personal strategy - NOT the final line

What is a chase? You are ALWAYS trying to win 1 unit per chase.

A Bet: risk 1.10 units to win 1 unit
B Bet: risk 2.31 units to win 2.10 units [the lost amount on A bet (1.10u) + 1 unit]
C Bet: risk 4.85 units to win 4.41 units [the lost amount on A bet (1.10u) + B bet (2.31u) + 1 unit]
D Bet: risk 10.19 units to win 9.26 units [the lost amount on A bet (1.10u) + B bet (2.31u) + C Bet (4.85u) + 1 unit]

U will win 1 unit on every series overall. Losing a D Bet will cost a TOTAL of 18.45 units.

This is a high risk high reward system.

Straight bet option means in the past the straight bets have won over 62% of the time so if you do not like chases this is a valid option.

Make sense? changes?? opinions? (no flames LOL)

good stuff

In case anyone is wondering I'm taking Stiflers S4. the good parts of S3 and I tweaked the S1s that should perform far better (at least they did last year and in the last 10 years).

My goal is to NOT lose money

My vision is to WIN win 99.7 units

Sounds great Grinder. What time will you usually post the system plays?
Thanks

Grinder, I like what you are doing. As we talked privately, I know you have the goods!

Thanks so much Grinder! Really appreciate you posting your findings. The straight bet option is also very interesting.

I'll try to get the games posted early morning Central Time -6. Tuesdays will be problematic for timing and a road trip to Dallas, Thanksgiving week will be a problem also but I'm working on logistics.

Straight bets - we all love and hate chases and for the most part I hate them. The straight bets are just that, if you can win 60% of the time why Chase.

One thing I'll be straight about - if this goes belly up I am losing money AND confidence. I thought Stiffler was fantastic last year for keeping up and I appreciate it because I could gather more information. HOWEVER, like lemmings I fear some people could not stop, if a game was posted MAYBE it would win.

ME? If things don't feel right I'll stop before I bleed to death.

One more thing I do differently with chases - I do not have a separate column for my bankroll for finished series. It's all one bankroll. If I got hit by a car THAT is what would be in my bankroll, not some magical thing with open chases not being part of my bank. It does not look as pretty but it's truthful.

I notice the line is down to +2. I've gotten pretty good at getting lines over the years, that is something that can really help your game. Go up to the ODDS tab on this site and when you have a chance during the days watch what is happening.

Today 5Dimes had OKC +2 -102 MINN -2 -108 this told me they were trying to pressure people into taking +2 because it was cheap. That is why I waited for +2.5. Now the smart money might boost it back to +2.5 just before game time, I doubt it. I don't see any pressure of it going to -1.5 though.

Snark and others - I know there are a group in the Philippians that have time issues. I'll TRY to post PRELIMINARY games at night (for me). Might not be ALL games but at least you might have more to work with.

That's it - I'm done!

LOL

Upcoming games (that I know of at the moment)
MM/DD/YY
11/2/13 2A(4) Philadelphia
11/3/13 1B(4*)New York Knicks

I tell ya - Orlando is a pain in the butt already. They are going against themselves for the next week it seems canceling themselves out! Who will finally win, bad Orlando or good Orlando. You have the Overtime FADE Orlando, The 4 games at home Follow Orlando(they won) and now they have won three in a row (ATS) Follow Orlando.

Thank you, Grinder. I'll be following.