I'm a Dallas fan and I do think they will lose that game. Just not enough to fade them. I only fade my team when I'm really sure of what I'm doing cause I feel like a real prick when I lose (like I did when I recently faded them v detroit).
Like you said Indiana will destroy them on the glass. That much I can all but guarantee.
Dirk could go off on Indiana's bigs though. Indy struggle with big men who can pick and pop I think. Wouldn't swear by it though.