John Morrison 2013-14 NBA Thread

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2013-14 System to Date: 58-4 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: -18.57 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 0

(2/21/14):
#57 Atlanta (+3½) (D) - Loss
#61 Detroit (M/L) (A) - Win
#62 Orlando (+3½) (A) - Win


v1 Plays
(A) 36-26
(B) 13-13
(C) 5-8
(D) 4-4
Losses: NYK (-18.45 u), MIL (-20.76 u), ORL (-18.45 u), ATL (-18.91 u)



Games for (2/22/14):
#63 N.Y. Knicks @ Atlanta (M/L) (A) (7:35 pm EST)
#64 Boston (+8) @ Sacramento (A) (10:05 pm EST) **

** Boston will only be a play if Atlanta wins their game tonight. If Atlanta loses, Boston series will be suspended until conclusion of Atlanta series. Teams are scheduled to face each other in their respective (C) bets.



We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the play. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day if the lines do change. However, it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from the line in my post.
System rules and backtest can be found in posts #44 & #45.

Note: The lines I have listed were the current lines at the time of my post and may not reflect the final lines used to determine wins & losses.

In my original testing for the 7/5, I didn't think too much about series that continue past the road trip. In fact I want to say that I dropped the series after the road trips completed regardless if the bet had won or not, though I can't remember that many situations where that was the outcome (this season has had a lot of rare events happen, and this is the biggest the system has ever lost in over a decade). A lot of people may say that it was foolish to drop those series, but for situations like a few days ago, where the home games just did not have a chance of coming through, maybe it was the best road to take. I definitely want to look into fixing those types of situations one way or another.

Anyways keep chugging guys, I'm confident that at least a large portion of these losses will be recovered by season's end.

Originally Posted by thelimit0310

In my original testing for the 7/5, I didn't think too much about series that continue past the road trip. In fact I want to say that I dropped the series after the road trips completed regardless if the bet had won or not, though I can't remember that many situations where that was the outcome (this season has had a lot of rare events happen, and this is the biggest the system has ever lost in over a decade). A lot of people may say that it was foolish to drop those series, but for situations like a few days ago, where the home games just did not have a chance of coming through, maybe it was the best road to take. I definitely want to look into fixing those types of situations one way or another.

Anyways keep chugging guys, I'm confident that at least a large portion of these losses will be recovered by season's end.

I did check that with my 1-7-5 testing, and playing the home game on a continuation of a series with a push was profitable, in fact, I believe there were no losses in my back test with this strategy. That is why it was implemented as a rule. Not for one particular instance that happened to lose this season, but for standings as a whole, as any filter in any back test is treated.

JM Disciple, maybe you could help me with a labby line problem I'm having. I'm using a labby line on an NBA m/l dog plays of which I have multiple plays a day. I am hitting about 45%, which isn't bad considering I'm playing dogs. But some days I've had up to 6 plays and I just want to use one line. I'm afraid to break it up into multiple lines because I nothing that determines what game goes to line one and what goes to line two. And I'm afraid one of the lines could take a long losing streak. Maybe you could give me an example of playing multiple games on one labby line.

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2013-14 System to Date: 60-4 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: -16.57 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 0

(2/22/14):
#63 Atlanta (M/L) (A) - Win
#64 Boston (+8½) (A) - Win


v1 Plays
(A) 38-26
(B) 13-13
(C) 5-8
(D) 4-4
Losses: NYK (-18.45 u), MIL (-20.76 u), ORL (-18.45 u), ATL (-18.91 u)



There are no system plays for (2/23/14)



We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the play. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day if the lines do change. However, it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from the line in my post.
System rules and backtest can be found in posts #44 & #45.

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Originally Posted by akell09

JM Disciple, maybe you could help me with a labby line problem I'm having. I'm using a labby line on an NBA m/l dog plays of which I have multiple plays a day. I am hitting about 45%, which isn't bad considering I'm playing dogs. But some days I've had up to 6 plays and I just want to use one line. I'm afraid to break it up into multiple lines because I nothing that determines what game goes to line one and what goes to line two. And I'm afraid one of the lines could take a long losing streak. Maybe you could give me an example of playing multiple games on one labby line.

Why dont you just divide the amount of money on your line by 6 games that you were choosing. If you had $120 on your line ($15 x 8 #s) just take each game and bet $20 per game. Because you are betting dogs you could technically cross 3#s when you win and add 1# when you lose that way you only need to hit 25%. Choosing how many numbers to cross off is not a science, but I would just suggest if you did have 15-15-15-15-15-15-15-15 as your labby line split it up to $10 x 12 for today and choose to cross off 3 #s for your wins and add 1# for your losses.

Hope this helps.

I like the idea of crossing off three numbers for each win. It should work for me since I'm playing very small units because I have never tracked this before this season. And since all plays are dogs or at least even money it should be affordable.

Thanks!

Originally Posted by akell09

I like the idea of crossing off three numbers for each win. It should work for me since I'm playing very small units because I have never tracked this before this season. And since all plays are dogs or at least even money it should be affordable.

Thanks!

Not just for small unit size but because of your +odds. The tradtional labby was based on even or -110 odds and for systems that hit at least 50% even though its 2:1 and needs a 34+% win rate in theory a 50%+ system is much better. I have tested different methods from 2strike to 4 strike (cross four add 1), but in reality when you are doing such large cross outs it basically becomes a martingale. I suggested 3 strike because you will have a lower win rate with plus odds. Also because if you divide your line creating more #s you will want to cross off more #s as well.

One thing I have been working out with Buckeye which I am greatly appreciated for is another betting method which I think will work given the appropriate system. We were testing betting every single under for NBA of every single game and using a hybrid labby. In the (2010-2011) season which buckeye tested though we reached a peak profit of 79u in Jan, but by end of February your bankroll would be nearly wiped out.

I just wanted to share this with you all and this betting method which I will describe in a second because the labby is not invincible. So betting method goes as follows.

First day of betting say there are 10 games you bet every game to go under for 1u each. If you win the next day you repeat the process for 1u each again. If the 2nd day goes 4-6 for example the following day you would bet 1.5u per game until your peak profit is reached on the season. If that day loses the following day you would bet 2u per game once again until the peak profit is reached on the season. During this season using this strategy it went from betting 1u per game all the way to 11.5 after a streak of overs which blew my mind. Once the peak profit is reached you would bet 1u per game again.

Still working out some little kinks or maybe testing different method such as NHL favorites or MLB favorites with this betting strategy. I believe it just needs a more consistent win rate to be profitable. Its very similar to the labby where losing days you increase your labby line a little bit until you clear all the numbers on your line and start back over. Instead of getting exact numbers though you are just increasing your bet size by 1/2 a unit for each losing day. I guess its more of a simplified labby.

I thought about using this strategy for MLB favorites, NHL favorites, or maybe an already proven system such as wallco's gold which has a high win rate. We would have to run the numbers and try it out. I do like the betting method, but would just try and implement having 200u in our bankroll to start or creating a stop loss of 30-50u before resetting the bet size back to 1u.

This could be a method you use for your dog system as well.

Just food for thought
Austin

Believe me, I know the labby line is not invincible. I have a play that I have been tracking for 3 years in the NBA. I find the all the road favorites for the day and play the road favorite with the current best record. It's one play a day. And I've been using the labby line for which I won around 50 units for each of last two years but this year has been a different story. Since Dec. 29, I have 17 wins and 25 losses. But the worst part was the first 16 games of this stretch I only won 3 and lost 13. The bets got way too big and I had to add extra numbers to my line. Now I'm in the hole and trying to play catch up.

I like your idea where when you play multiple games and lose to add 1/2 unit to the next day and so on. I'll have to take a closer look at that.

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2013-14 System to Date: 60-4 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: -16.57 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 0


v1 Plays
(A) 38-26
(B) 13-13
(C) 5-8
(D) 4-4
Losses: NYK (-18.45 u), MIL (-20.76 u), ORL (-18.45 u), ATL (-18.91 u)



There are no system plays for (2/24/14)



We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the play. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day if the lines do change. However, it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from the line in my post.
System rules and backtest can be found in posts #44 & #45.

All of the suggestions of modifications to the "system" and how to bet and play it make me firmly believe it is a losing proposition.

Good luck to people who believe in this crazy way of wagering.

Hi Guys, I have a massive apology to make to those of you who play the Currently Published System. I posted Orlando as a play yesterday. Orlando is the worst road team in the NBA and should have been filtered out before the A Bet. I have now edited the post for stats reasons only. If you played Orlando and lost 1.8 or more units, please accept my sincere apology for the error. If you wish, you can recover the small loss by adding it to the recovery plan.

Regards
Kev

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