John Morrison 2013-14 NBA Thread

Wallco really another c loss? And this system blew last year too!
Please stop posting this crap.

Originally Posted by KennyM10

Wallco really another c loss? And this system blew last year too!
Please stop posting this crap.

at least this system is kinda predictable unlike jm system!

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Wallco NBA Chase 110
2013-14 System to Date: 55-3 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: -2.65 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 2 (-11.89 units)

(2/19/14):
#57 Atlanta (M/L) (C) - Loss


v1 Plays
(A) 34-26
(B) 13-13
(C) 4-8
(D) 4-3
Losses: NYK (-18.45 u), MIL (-20.76 u), ORL (-18.45 u)



Games for (2/20/14):
#57 Resumes (D) on 2/21/14
#58 Denver (M/L) @ Milwaukee (C) (8:05 pm EST)



We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the play. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day if the lines do change. However, it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from the line in my post.
System rules and backtest can be found in posts #44 & #45.

Note: The lines I have listed were the current lines at the time of my post and may not reflect the final lines used to determine wins & losses.

Think I will just have to lick my wounds and wait for next season. I'm looking at a few things for NCAA Basketball next season also. They seem to be a little more predictable. Anyway, good luck and thanks to Kev, Wallco, thelimit and Hagball for all the hard work you guy's have put into this thread. See ya next season.

Brutal

I've been able to stay afloat by betting the live lines this season.
I bet live lines when the teams have spreads between 1 to 3 points, ML plays, or when my knowledge of basketball comes into play.
If you're going to start betting the live lines, you better know everything about the game and the teams as well.
NBA games have some of the biggest swings I have ever seen when it comes to sports betting. Teams can blow a 10 point lead within a minute after a timeout which can cause the line to shift dramatically.
Sometime you can get a few points added onto the spread, sometimes you can get a money line play with less juice.
(Example: Last night I grabbed Brooklyn +2 early in the second quarter when the original line was -3.5)
It's like day trading, you have to know when to pull the trigger in the market.
This is a strategy that has worked for me this year but it's not for everyone.
Good luck, I hope everyone recovers well.

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2013-14 System to Date: 56-3 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: -1.65 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 1 (-8.48 units)

(2/20/14):
#58 Denver (M/L) (C) - Win


v1 Plays
(A) 34-26
(B) 13-13
(C) 5-8
(D) 4-3
Losses: NYK (-18.45 u), MIL (-20.76 u), ORL (-18.45 u)



Games for (2/21/14):
#57 Atlanta (**) @ Detroit (D) (7:35 pm EST)
#61 Atlanta @ Detroit (**) (A) (7:35 pm EST)
#62 N.Y. Knicks @ Orlando (M/L) (A) (7:05 pm EST)

** Denotes line not available at time of post.


We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the play. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day if the lines do change. However, it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from the line in my post.
System rules and backtest can be found in posts #44 & #45.

Note: The lines I have listed were the current lines at the time of my post and may not reflect the final lines used to determine wins & losses.

"

Kevin, Boston is a (B) bet for 1-7-5 tonight as well. They lost the (A) bet on the 19th. They lost the game by 6 points and the line was only +5.5. Covers.com was used for all 1-7-5 backtesting, not vegasinsider. Neither site had them winning (A) bet anyway.

Originally Posted by Wallco99

Kevin, Boston is a (B) bet for 1-7-5 tonight as well. They lost the (A) bet on the 19th. They lost the game by 6 points and the line was only +5.5. Covers.com was used for all 1-7-5 backtesting, not vegasinsider. Neither site had them winning (A) bet anyway.

Yes, while I was constructing the results post I noted the published system had won its bet due to the point buy, but the 1-7-5 System didn't win. I then got distracted and didn't properly record the results. I've now corrected the post, thanks. The on-going P/L balance has also been adjusted accordingly.

Originally Posted by cambertos

This system is has under performed so badly this year. Gotta get off now, best of luck everyone

Originally Posted by kdavis

Think I will just have to lick my wounds and wait for next season. I'm looking at a few things for NCAA Basketball next season also. They seem to be a little more predictable. Anyway, good luck and thanks to Kev, Wallco, thelimit and Hagball for all the hard work you guy's have put into this thread. See ya next season.

To all of you who are bailing on the systems right now. I don't think that that is the best strategy right now. I know it has been brutal but there is still a fair amount of profit to be made yet this season. About a month ago I decided to labby the all of the systems together (JM, 1-7-5 filtered and unfiltered and Wallco's chase 110) and I'm climbing the ladder again. I know Wallco and Kev don't play it that way and I don't usually either but this is an unusual year. I am filtering some of the really bad teams like Milwaukee, Philly and a few others but due to some personal handicapping I will even play them occasionally and have profited on some of them also. Just think of it like investing in a mutual fund. It doesn't have the roller coaster ride of the stockmarket and can be stagnant at times but over time it just grows gradually. I sleep much better at night and have taken all of the emotion out of it. I run a labby similar to what On3 did in football this past season and can adjust my numbers anytime things get a little dicey. Just wanted to share. Good luck to all of you.

Hagball is correct about the potential for recovery. We have another 50 (approx.) plays to go and there will certainly be a lot of B & C Bet winners in that 50 series.

During the back tests, it would have been very time-consuming for Wallco to run a trial BR to check the size of the BR highs and lows. For all we know, this current BR balance might be a typical low point of a winning season.....

As a fellow past labbier I would just chime and and say I posted some results last season with a labby using a single line. It can get quite heavy but season to season it does make a profit. I would say you still need 200 units in your bankroll to be safe with the labby. I would also say I do not think the labby will make the most profit compared to 1-7-5 overall, but some people just want consistent profit over maximum profit. I know just about everything there is to know about the labby as we have had many discussions about it over the past three seasons in JM forums. The 1-7-5 beats the labby long run. What I was implementing last year was labbying all the A bets and playing the 7/5 on the side which I considered to make more money.

I would also say if you do not have the bankroll for the system then go ahead and jump ship. No point in taking out loans for sports betting. We may lose 200 units this season no one really knows for sure. When I seen it down 50 units I jumped back in thinking it would climb back up because the worst filter version of 1-7-5 only lost like 50 units and climbed back out. If you still have a bankroll just readjust your unit size and do some of your own testing. I still think the .500 filter will help with some consistent profits. Those who are able to write formulas and stuff when they pull data can do this pretty easily I would think. That is not my specialty though so it would be too tedious for me.

Good luck to everyone. Next season I hope to have a nice action packed system which will crush all other systems just using a simplified labby betting totals. With the help of buckeye recently I have been able to start testing some and it definitely looks promising even during rough stretches most it has been down is only 29 units, but will still need a full 100 units for the system to bet all the games. I dont want to start a thread at the middle of the season with it also not until its fully tested.

Anyways goodluck!

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