John Morrison 2013-14 NBA Thread

Originally Posted by Maxi_EV

Hey tonywayne

Can't handle downswings?
Get a regular job!

Or go back to school to study some simple maths. You might learn interesting things about probabilities, ROI, expected value, VARIANCE, standard deviation, LONG TERM expectations & Risk of Ruin.

Good Luck!

I'm a professional accountant and statistical analyst. I'm not questioning the "stats" of any of the systems in this thread. The betting & the systems are at least consistent in their picks. My issue is with the blind scheduling of the JM system, and with the results of the Wallco system. I think some simple tweaks are in order - EVERY system can use a little nudging from time to time to make sure it's keeping up with the game & the books.

You want to talk risk of ruin? What would these guys do if Vegas decided to start moving spreads by 1 1/2 points because they were losing too many games? With a blind system (JM), as a bettor, you end up ruined because you didn't recognize the shift and make the necessary adjustment. Wallco's & others reactions tell me they have far too much pride/ego to actually do anything about losing money. They will shrug, soldier on, and keep citing a 10+ year average. Smart & sharp bettors make adjustments. Plain & simple.

Who said I'm on a downswing? I'm following these threads, not currently betting these systems. Chase systems, especially, interest me. I just wanted to have some dialogue to find out if anyone is actually at the wheel or not. It doesn't sound like it.

Originally Posted by tonywayne

I'm a professional accountant and statistical analyst. I'm not questioning the "stats" of any of the systems in this thread. The betting & the systems are at least consistent in their picks. My issue is with the blind scheduling of the JM system, and with the results of the Wallco system. I think some simple tweaks are in order - EVERY system can use a little nudging from time to time to make sure it's keeping up with the game & the books.

You want to talk risk of ruin? What would these guys do if Vegas decided to start moving spreads by 1 1/2 points because they were losing too many games? With a blind system (JM), as a bettor, you end up ruined because you didn't recognize the shift and make the necessary adjustment. Wallco's & others reactions tell me they have far too much pride/ego to actually do anything about losing money. They will shrug, soldier on, and keep citing a 10+ year average. Smart & sharp bettors make adjustments. Plain & simple.

Who said I'm on a downswing? I'm following these threads, not currently betting these systems. Chase systems, especially, interest me. I just wanted to have some dialogue to find out if anyone is actually at the wheel or not. It doesn't sound like it.

It's not dialogue, it's you asking others to test theories for you because you don't want to spend the time. Anybody can throw a hundred scenarios out there, test them then tell me you have a better way. Until I see that, there is no better way.

Originally Posted by Wallco99

It's not dialogue, it's you asking others to test theories for you because you don't want to spend the time. Anybody can throw a hundred scenarios out there, test them then tell me you have a better way. Until I see that, there is no better way.

Go back and re-read those 2 or 3 posts. I was very clear that I'd made an assumption that Disciple had his data set up to make a slight tweak. Why would I spend time on someone else's system when they SHOULD be able to change a single variable and look at the results?

As well, I'm not telling you your system is "bad" or "wrong". I'm ASKING if there are any tweaks to consider. If you could set your pride & ego aside for a minute, you'd likely be able to see something new/fresh. SOMETHING is knocking these systems off their expected trajectory. That you don't seem to care about it or want to do anything about it says more about YOU, not about those of us making reasonable inquiries.

I spent a lot of time testing my own systems or those where I have access to the full data set. I'm not going to waste my time piece-mealing things together from within this thread when SOMEONE should be able to go to a database, select some variables, and spit out a report. If that's now how you're keeping track of your data, then you're even more amateurish than we're seeing in these conversations...

Originally Posted by tonywayne

Go back and re-read those 2 or 3 posts. I was very clear that I'd made an assumption that Disciple had his data set up to make a slight tweak. Why would I spend time on someone else's system when they SHOULD be able to change a single variable and look at the results?

As well, I'm not telling you your system is "bad" or "wrong". I'm ASKING if there are any tweaks to consider. If you could set your pride & ego aside for a minute, you'd likely be able to see something new/fresh. SOMETHING is knocking these systems off their expected trajectory. That you don't seem to care about it or want to do anything about it says more about YOU, not about those of us making reasonable inquiries.

I spent a lot of time testing my own systems or those where I have access to the full data set. I'm not going to waste my time piece-mealing things together from within this thread when SOMEONE should be able to go to a database, select some variables, and spit out a report. If that's now how you're keeping track of your data, then you're even more amateurish than we're seeing in these conversations...

Speaking of reading, I already said I was doing that yesterday, for things I wish to check, not the other suggestions. Bored with you and this topic. Have a nice day.

So sterile...

Originally Posted by Maxi_EV

Hey tonywayne

Can't handle downswings?
Get a regular job!

Or go back to school to study some simple maths. You might learn interesting things about probabilities, ROI, expected value, VARIANCE, standard deviation, LONG TERM expectations & Risk of Ruin.

Good Luck!

Sounds like hes doing fine on his own turning $10 units into $100 over 2 years. He made a good point not everyone has been playing this system for 10 years and dont have the cushion for those who have a dedicated bankroll to just sports or 200+ units in their roll, especially those who just started this year. Should not be so stubborn with educating ourselves. Both wallco and him make good points. No one should be spoon fed nor should we just follow blindly when things are changing. As Hagball said teams are tanking for better draft picks, its a business not just entertainment. Adapt and move forward.

Tony... I know you're upset the system is failing but there aren't any tweaks to make. You're talking about adapting, we are, when we see proper evidence (like adding in the A bets as plays at the beginning of this season after proper testing was made to ensure they added units season to season). We don't just put in a flavor of the month tweak whenever something doesn't go as planned. Some people in here say to play teams only better than .500 well that's great but it's impossible to test and therefor not a good change to make just because we hit a few losses this month. This is not a dead, irrecoverable, unprofitable system. Right now the filtered 1-7/5 system is about ~8 B/C wins from breaking even, and there's still 2 months of plays to make. The system the 1-7/5 was adapted from, the traditional John Morrison system, is further in the hole than the 1-7/5 is.

Whether or not you started playing this year is irrelevant, if you're using proper management of your bankroll, which is laid out with the system at the start of every season, you should be okay right now. If this season finishes poorly, I'm sorry, but it's not like it was never going to happen, no system is perfect and it can and will fail every few years or so. It is a constant struggle to fix this but it's a sad reality for the time being. That still doesn't effect the long term gains of this system and it still remains fact that the 1-7/5 is one of the most profitable NBA systems you can play.

"

Originally Posted by hagball52

So I presume that even when the A bet wins you still just straight bet both the B and C bets no matter what?

Hi,
Would be very nice if anyone here could confirm/answer this question.
I also wondered if the exterminator system says anything about doubling up your stakes if the B bet lost?
And does the system say that you bet both B and C bet or just B bet if B bet wins.
And if A bet win do you still bet B bet? Or you just leave that serie and go to the next one where the A bet lost?
Many thanks for your help

Originally Posted by petermans23

Hi,
Would be very nice if anyone here could confirm/answer this question.
I also wondered if the exterminator system says anything about doubling up your stakes if the B bet lost?
And does the system say that you bet both B and C bet or just B bet if B bet wins.
And if A bet win do you still bet B bet? Or you just leave that serie and go to the next one where the A bet lost?
Many thanks for your help

[B]The A game must lose under the original system in order for the B game to be a play.
If B bet wins, series is over.
If the B bet loses you DO try to recover your units lost on the B bet plus the number of units you want to wager on the C bet.
If the A bet wins you DO NOT wager on the B game. Move on to next series.
His money management is this. Bet a fixed amount for every bet under the system. For a conservative better that would be 5% - 10% of your bankroll. 10 - 15% for average bettor. 15 - 20% for the very aggressive risk taker. Calculate these percentages after each and every win or loss. The actual amount you are risking should lower after every loss and rise after every win.
He also has an option that he says can be a very profitable betting strategy. If you have the ability to buy 3 points in the NBA at -170 juice, then you can bet on all A games from the original SBC system while buying 3 points. He suggest betting a very small percentage of your bankroll (no more than 5%) if you do.

This is the Exterminator system in a nutshell.
(1) Follow all the system bets for the Sports Betting Champ system.

(2) Skip all [A] bets from the SBC system. Bet on all qualifying [B] bets from the SBC system with a percentage of your bankroll mentioned above. Bet on the point spread without buying any points.
follow the "When your team is a favorite of -3 points or greater" rule from the SBC system.

(3) if your bet loses (even if it would have won on the SBC system due to buying points), then bet on the [C] game with the same percentage of your bankroll as mentioned above. Again, bet on the point spread without buying points, unless your team is in a rare occasion where they are a favorite of -3 points or greater.

(4) Follow all the injury filters and road performance rules in the SBC system.

"

Thank you kdavis!
Much appreciated.
Tried to give you some points but it said that I couldnīt for some weird reason and that you were not allowed to receive points for some other weird reason.
Once again thanks and have a nice day.

Originally Posted by kdavis

[B]The A game must lose under the original system in order for the B game to be a play.
If B bet wins, series is over.
If the B bet loses you DO try to recover your units lost on the B bet plus the number of units you want to wager on the C bet.
If the A bet wins you DO NOT wager on the B game. Move on to next series.
His money management is this. Bet a fixed amount for every bet under the system. For a conservative better that would be 5% - 10% of your bankroll. 10 - 15% for average bettor. 15 - 20% for the very aggressive risk taker. Calculate these percentages after each and every win or loss. The actual amount you are risking should lower after every loss and rise after every win.
He also has an option that he says can be a very profitable betting strategy. If you have the ability to buy 3 points in the NBA at -170 juice, then you can bet on all A games from the original SBC system while buying 3 points. He suggest betting a very small percentage of your bankroll (no more than 5%) if you do.

This is the Exterminator system in a nutshell.
(1) Follow all the system bets for the Sports Betting Champ system.

(2) Skip all [A] bets from the SBC system. Bet on all qualifying [B] bets from the SBC system with a percentage of your bankroll mentioned above. Bet on the point spread without buying any points.
follow the "When your team is a favorite of -3 points or greater" rule from the SBC system.

(3) if your bet loses (even if it would have won on the SBC system due to buying points), then bet on the [C] game with the same percentage of your bankroll as mentioned above. Again, bet on the point spread without buying points, unless your team is in a rare occasion where they are a favorite of -3 points or greater.

(4) Follow all the injury filters and road performance rules in the SBC system.

Pretty much describes the 0-3-3 system whereby the 3 units, being the same for B & C, can be any % of the BR (ie 0-1-1). I'm surprised he has dropped point buying. My stats have shown that B & C bets have so far bombed this season, and if there are no A bets to recoup some of the losses, it isn't working at the moment.

Thank you kdavis!
Much appreciated. and i was allowed 2 point u

Originally Posted by hardy4

Thank you kdavis!
Much appreciated. and i was allowed 2 point u

Then why didn't you?