Morrison 2/10 Results & 2/11 Plays
"
analyzer gave Kev the Brit 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.
Mrscofield25 gave Kev the Brit 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.
Boyne gave Kev the Brit 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.
Where did you get the data from?Originally Posted by J.M. Disciple
Very tedious testing stuff like this.
Wallco NBA Chase 110
2013-14 System to Date: 52-3 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: -5.65 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 1 (-1.10 units)
(2/10/14):
#56 Philadelphia (+15) (A) - Loss
v1 Plays
(A) 32-24
(B) 12-11
(C) 4-7
(D) 4-3
Losses: NYK (-18.45 u), MIL (-20.76 u), ORL (-18.45 u)
Games for (2/11/14):
#57 Atlanta (+2) @ Chicago (A) (8:05 pm EST)
We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the play. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day if the lines do change. However, it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from the line in my post.
System rules and backtest can be found in posts #44 & #45.
Note: The lines I have listed were the current lines at the time of my post and may not reflect the final lines used to determine wins & losses.
Maxi_EV gave Wallco99 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.
Mrscofield25 gave Wallco99 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.
covers and just tested team by team given the spread sheet on page 3. Just physically count the record. Some teams are .500 to start the season but later drop below .500 so stats are deceiving if you look at the teams that are currently under .500. That is why there is a huge difference between 115 units and 19 units.Where did you get the data from?
Of course it's tedious - that's just the nature of stat mining.Very tedious testing stuff like this. I posted the excel file and which teams were above .500 I am not going back and testing .400 because of curiosity.
The reason I suggested "you" testing .400 teams is because the spreadsheet you posted doesn't contain enough data for anyone else to do such a test. I made the assumption that your data source was something you could recalculate relatively painlessly (why on earth would you do it manually?).
I'll take a look at the .400 data myself later this week if I have time (the All-Star break is a great time for some stat gathering without worrying about any daily betting deadlines). I'm already doing some backtesting of a couple of patterns I saw recently.
This is true if you are just using numerical data or some program/system to beat the books.I was testing this year trying to fade a road team, but end up with 17 losses which is worse then following. So if you follow you lose and if you fade you lose. Freakin bookies are unbeatable it seems.
You have to balance the objective data with the subjective information you have at hand, and is why you need to actually follow the sport.
For example last night Indiana was off a loss, avenging a loss to Denver earlier in the year, Denver was without their point guard, and the all-star break is coming up (perhaps teams lay off the gas and are on cruise control until the break, we all do this in our jobs, right?)
Or look at Atlanta, yes they have three straight road games, however I prefer to look at it as two road games and then the all star break. (they will go back home before hitting the road for the third game)
We are not robots and it is not as easy and checking off all the boxes to see if they pass the criteria outlined. We need to consider the human factor in all of this and use our own intuition and wit to beat the books. They have more numerical information then we could possibly ever have.
Thank you all for your help in compiling the data however, it is the starting point for making a play, not the end point.
Last edited by million2one; 02-11-14 at 11:24 AM.
PanamaKid gave million2one 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.
When I came up with the 115 units I had just assumed that New Orleans was under .500 all season and I was wrong. But they should have only been two losses, not three.
Nov. 10 New Orleans was 3 - 3 (system loss)
Dec. 15 New Orleans was 11-10 (system loss)
Jan. 1 New Orleans was 14-15 (no play under .500)
And Denver just added another loss giving a total of four losses. But that still puts the over .500 filter at 44 units won.
which loss is in accurate in the spread sheet?When I came up with the 115 units I had just assumed that New Orleans was under .500 all season and I was wrong. But they should have only been two losses, not three.
Nov. 10 New Orleans was 3 - 3 (system loss)
Dec. 15 New Orleans was 11-10 (system loss)
Jan. 1 New Orleans was 14-15 (no play under .500)
And Denver just added another loss giving a total of four losses. But that still puts the over .500 filter at 44 units won.
Your spread sheet is correct, you do have New Orleans's third series as under .500. But your earlier post had:
A) 29-23
B) 14-9
C) 5-5
Your spread sheet only has 4 losses, but your record for 'C' bets show 5. With only 4 losses, the units won would be around 44. My four losses are New Orleans twice, Miami, and Denver. Am I missing one?
I must of looked at a loss twice and inputted it that way. The errors of doing it manually... I am not sure how to do all the data mining people are talking about. I guess I am old school at a young ageYour spread sheet is correct, you do have New Orleans's third series as under .500. But your earlier post had:
A) 29-23
B) 14-9
C) 5-5
Your spread sheet only has 4 losses, but your record for 'C' bets show 5. With only 4 losses, the units won would be around 44. My four losses are New Orleans twice, Miami, and Denver. Am I missing one?Thanks for double checking though, always appreciated. Thats like a 70 unit difference from current season, but only small sample size. ATL not looking good at over .500 tonight. On another guys picks as well. Hes at 69-38 ATS this season called "nothing is for sure..." Hopefully didn't jump in on a bad day. This all star break might be the cause of all this drama.
another c loss!
another total losing streaks.
this is like nba baskeball run!
I can't wait for the winter olympics to be done.
Wallco's NHL system has treated me well for balancing out NBA losses.
Wallco NBA Chase 110
2013-14 System to Date: 52-3 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: -5.65 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 2 (-2.20 units)
(2/11/14):
#57 Atlanta (+1½) (A) - Loss
v1 Plays
(A) 32-25
(B) 12-11
(C) 4-7
(D) 4-3
Losses: NYK (-18.45 u), MIL (-20.76 u), ORL (-18.45 u)
Games for (2/12/14):
#56 Philadelphia (+7½) @ Utah (B) (9:05 pm EST)
#57 Atlanta (+6½) @ Toronto (B) (7:05 pm EST)
#58 Denver (+6) @ Minnesota (A) (8:05 pm EST)
#59 Denver @ Minnesota (M/L) (A) (8:05 pm EST)
#60 Sacramento (+5) @ N.Y. Knicks (A) (7:35 pm EST)
We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the play. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day if the lines do change. However, it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from the line in my post.
System rules and backtest can be found in posts #44 & #45.
Note: The lines I have listed were the current lines at the time of my post and may not reflect the final lines used to determine wins & losses.
Last edited by Wallco99; 02-12-14 at 03:30 PM.
Mrscofield25 gave Wallco99 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.
Morrison 2/11 Results & 2/12 Plays
"
Last edited by Kev the Brit; 02-13-14 at 12:14 AM.
Mrscofield25 gave Kev the Brit 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.
Boyne gave Kev the Brit 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.
analyzer gave Kev the Brit 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.
Time to give up on system or ride it out till end of season? It's down a ton of units now. I've been following it since the beginning but losses have drained my bank account even using it as 1 unit. Down 1600 from 1-7-5 system. I can't afford to lose another 80 units. What is everyone else doing?
