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John Morrison 2013-14 NBA Thread

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#1261

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I've playing the 1-7-5 all season. I started with the filtered version then switched to the unfiltered after seeing Walco's past statistics. I just had my eleventh loss.

New Orleans 3 times
Orlando 2 times
Utah
New York
Sacramento
Miami
LA Lakers
Cleveland

Well I see a pattern here. All but Miami have losing records. I found that if I had only played teams over .500, with the Miami loss, I would be up 115 units for the season. Something to think about.
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#1263

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Quote Originally Posted by akell09 View Post
I've playing the 1-7-5 all season. I started with the filtered version










then switched to the unfiltered after seeing Walco's past statistics. I just had my eleventh loss.

New Orleans 3 times
Orlando 2 times
Utah
New York
Sacramento
Miami
LA Lakers
Cleveland

Well I see a pattern here. All but Miami have losing records. I found that if I had only played teams over .500, with the Miami loss, I would be up 115 units for the season. Something to think about.
What I have been doing for awhile now is fading the teams that have a below .500 percentage rating. These teams definitely have a better chance of losing 1 of 3 road games ATS than winning one.
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#1264

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Quote Originally Posted by akell09 View Post
I've playing the 1-7-5 all season.
Well I see a pattern here. All but Miami have losing records. I found that if I had only played teams over .500, with the Miami loss, I would be up 115 units for the season. Something to think about.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
How many Units per wager?
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#1265

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Quote Originally Posted by akell09 View Post
I've playing the 1-7-5 all season. I started with the filtered version then switched to the unfiltered after seeing Walco's past statistics. I just had my eleventh loss.

New Orleans 3 times
Orlando 2 times
Utah
New York
Sacramento
Miami
LA Lakers
Cleveland

Well I see a pattern here. All but Miami have losing records. I found that if I had only played teams over .500, with the Miami loss, I would be up 115 units for the season. Something to think about.
Sounds good, but way to small of a sample size. Would be curious to see if the 10 yr back test agrees.. Would be a ton of work to find out though.
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#1266

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I think its wise, regardless of what system or method you use, to always have a bank of toxic or poisonous teams.

However, its easy to go overboard where you end up missing out on some WINS as poor teams improve or pull through.

At this point in the season, of the teams mentioned above...I have Cle, Orl, and Utah in my list of toxic teams...will never bet for them, and most of the time I'm betting against them. It just doesn't make sense to poor $$ into a sh*t team expecting them to play well or even play hard.
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#1268

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Wallco NBA Chase 110
2013-14 System to Date: 49-3 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: -8.65 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 0


v1 Plays
(A) 30-22
(B) 11-11
(C) 4-7
(D) 4-3
Losses: NYK (-18.45 u), MIL (-20.76 u), ORL (-18.45 u)



There are no system plays for (2/5/14)



We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the play. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day if the lines do change. However, it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from the line in my post.
System rules and backtest can be found in posts #44 & #45.

Note: The lines I have listed were the current lines at the time of my post and may not reflect the final lines used to determine wins & losses.
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#1271

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Quote Originally Posted by Andy3568 View Post
Wallco,

The Cleveland series was postponed because it conflicted with the Lakers (Series #51). Since the Lakers bet won on 2/4 and Cleveland has continued its losing streak, shouldn't Cleveland be an "A" bet tonight?
Wallco's away from home at the moment and he might find it difficult to answer questions during the day.

You are right, Andy. Cleveland should be an A Bet tonight. Also, given that they have already lost what would have been the A & B Bets, and that their next 4 games are against average teams ATS, I'm going to play to win 5 units on them.

Kev
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#1273

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Quote Originally Posted by blerpblerp View Post
Oh boy....clev is one of he most toxic teams in the league right now. Hard to wager any money on them....BOL
You're right about them, which is why the bookies will gradually increase the spread as more and more bettors pile onto the opposing teams' spread lines. At some point the spread will be too great for the favs to beat. We haven't seen any team in 3 years get to a 9 losing game streak ATS. Clev are currently at 6....
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