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John Morrison 2013-14 NBA Thread

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#1156

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Wallco NBA Chase 110
2013-14 System to Date: 39-3 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: -18.65 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 0

(1/15/14):
#38 Milwaukee (+6) (D) - Win
#40 Orlando (+6) (B) - Win
#42 Philadelphia (M/L) (A) - Win


v1 Plays
(A) 25-17
(B) 8-9
(C) 2-7
(D) 4-3
Losses: NYK (-18.45 u), MIL (-20.76 u), ORL (-18.45 u)



There are no system plays for (1/16/14)



We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the play. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day if the lines do change. However, it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from the line in my post.
System rules and backtest can be found in posts #44 & #45.
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#1164

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Quote Originally Posted by PanamaKid View Post
I stayed away from the Miami bet as Wizards have been outperforming ATS and Miami has been way underperforming ATS and Miami at -6 seemed like BS to me. Soooooooo happy I did. I made all the other bets and finally got a great cash in!
Like yourself, I occasionally don't play the system. Most times its because I missed the bet. Very rarely will I choose not to. I don't think I know enough about the NBA to handicap games.

So, on those occasions when I don't play the system, I win some and I lose some. On those occasions I read many posts here that are telling us exactly the opposite of my good or bad fortune. If I lost out on a big 7 unit or 5 unit win, unlike the majority of the crowd here, I view that as my personal issue to deal with in my own private space. I know I would not feel any better by discussing my bad fortune here. On the other hand, when I either escape a major loss or I win something that the majority here has not won, I again view that as my personal issue to deal with, because I know I will not feel any better by discussing my good fortune here. In fact, I think I would feel less good about myself and I very much doubt that someone who might have lost thousands of dollars would be at all interested in my good fortune.
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#1166

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Quote Originally Posted by Kev the Brit View Post
Like yourself, I occasionally don't play the system. Most times its because I missed the bet. Very rarely will I choose not to. I don't think I know enough about the NBA to handicap games.

So, on those occasions when I don't play the system, I win some and I lose some. On those occasions I read many posts here that are telling us exactly the opposite of my good or bad fortune. If I lost out on a big 7 unit or 5 unit win, unlike the majority of the crowd here, I view that as my personal issue to deal with in my own private space. I know I would not feel any better by discussing my bad fortune here. On the other hand, when I either escape a major loss or I win something that the majority here has not won, I again view that as my personal issue to deal with, because I know I will not feel any better by discussing my good fortune here. In fact, I think I would feel less good about myself and I very much doubt that someone who might have lost thousands of dollars would be at all interested in my good fortune.
Understandable perspective. My reasoning was just to provide some logic behind my actions, but don't worry, I can take the hint
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#1168

Default New Morrison Published System Rules

A new pdf has been issued. Unfortunately, despite many attempts, I cannot attach it. The significant changes are as follows:

Season Start/End Points. At the beginning of the season do not play a team until it has played 3 games. Stop at the end of the regular season. My obvious recommendation is to check that there are 3 regular road games scheduled before starting the series.

Road Standings. Worst 3 road teams are now filtered out. The best team is also filtered out (but this is not new). See my comment below.

Most Efficient Player Injury. A player's injury filter is now valid only for the first 5 games during the injury. The next player on the list becomes the most efficient player when the filter is lifted while the original player remains injured.

Previous In-Conference Road Game Performance. The team must lose all games SU.

Options when Team is -3 ATS or Better. 4 options: play ML, or buy the points but stop if the ML bet won. Reduce size of bet. Pass on the bet.

I strongly suspect that there is an element of "record-rigging" going on here. However, I do not mind this if he does not change the current season's record up to the change. I've checked the records and there is no doubt that Orlando would have been filtered out as the 2nd worst road team when they started their last (losing) series on 1/6. Also, I wouldn't object if he now publishes an improved "historical" record with the changes incorporated, as long as the record indicates that retrospective changes have been made. However he markets this changed system to new people is not my business.

I will not be changing the Published System's record in retrospect this season. I will publish a comparison at the end of the season, not forgetting that some of the winners might have been filtered out.

Regards
Kev
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#1169

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Wallco NBA Chase 110
2013-14 System to Date: 39-3 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: -18.65 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 0


v1 Plays
(A) 25-17
(B) 8-9
(C) 2-7
(D) 4-3
Losses: NYK (-18.45 u), MIL (-20.76 u), ORL (-18.45 u)



Games for (1/17/14):
#43 Miami (M/L) @ Philadelphia (A) (7:05 pm EST)



We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the play. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day if the lines do change. However, it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from the line in my post.
System rules and backtest can be found in posts #44 & #45.

Note: The lines I have listed were the current lines at the time of my post and may not reflect the final lines used to determine wins & losses.
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#1170

Default Morrison V1 Recovery Plan - Orlando

Hi Folks,

My earlier Post #889 (linked) describes the principles behind my recovery plan. Indeed, that very post also outlined the strategy to recover the 22.17 units lost by Sacramento in Dec, which was successful. However, due to various filters, the 6 recovery series spanned nine V1 scheduled series and it came very close to incorporating the disastrous Orlando series. However, the latest change to the Published System would have filtered Orlando out, so I'm now even more confident that future recovery plans will be more robust.

Kev's Orlando Recovery Plan. Subject to the (new) published filters, my plan is to recover Orlando's lost 23.17 units (22.17 units lost, plus 1 original unit target), while simultaneously winning 1 unit per series as normal. The plays are as follows:

#1: 1/17: #78. V1. L.A. Clippers bet to win 4.87 units (today)
#2: 1/20: #83. V1. Dallas bet to win 4.87 units
#3: 1/20: #84. V1. Indiana bet to win 4.87 units
#4: 1/24: #87. V1. Washington bet to win 4.87 units
#5: 1/26. #89. V1. Phoenix bet to win 4.87 units
#6: 1/29. #92. V1. Charlotte bet to win 4.82 units

There will be some overlapping recovery series together with the other scheduled V2 & V3 series, so the BR has to be sufficient to accommodate some big bets.

The teams do not have any potential filters (road performance and in-conference games). Player injuries will be checked when required.

The recovery should be complete by 2/1.

Regards
Kev
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