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John Morrison 2013-14 NBA Thread

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#106

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Hey Wallco, thanks for the good work! Read a lot about the systems during offseason and im looking forward to tail in NBA, already tailing in hockey

Just want to make sure i got this right: When you play the chase 110 system you play a team that has lost 3x in a row ATS&SU to win over a 4 game chase, and the JM 1-7-5 Fades a team whenever they start a 3 game road trip. correct?

What do you think of using filters for the chase 110? Having big money on the Bobcats or magic never feels good, and especially this season with teams like Philly and the Suns tanking hard for wiggins, i could easily see them losing a series each
#107

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for chase110 the system will never feel good hence your following a team that has lost 3Su and 3ATS. Most likely its an under .500 team. If you only play favorites though the system does much worse ATS. Its these losing streaks that actually create the system.

As for BoBcats and Magic for the JM system you can remove the bottom 1-3 teams that have the worse ATS record on the road or just worse road record in general. There are some that applied this filter with chase110 removing teams who suck ATS and they showed a profit with chase110 last year.

I am sure wallco will note, system was not backtested with filters and will invite you to test it yourself with filters and let us all know. But that is likely not going to happen. No one forces anyone to bet here, so if you do not like magic or bocats than do not play them on that series.

We are following a road team for 3 straight games, not fading them.
#108

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Thank you for clearing that up.

Ive read a lot of your posts on the different subforums here, and really like your idea of playing many different systems for small, steady profits from each, making downswings in 1 system way more manageable, and with a BR of ~150-200 units, i should be able to handle a few losses. Currently i have my eyes on NBA, NHL and NFL, JM/chase 110 and NFL halftime plays, Any other systems you'd recommend?
#109

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Quote Originally Posted by Kankerganker View Post
Thank you for clearing that up.

Ive read a lot of your posts on the different subforums here, and really like your idea of playing many different systems for small, steady profits from each, making downswings in 1 system way more manageable, and with a BR of ~150-200 units, i should be able to handle a few losses. Currently i have my eyes on NBA, NHL and NFL, JM/chase 110 and NFL halftime plays, Any other systems you'd recommend?
I am following crusher as well. Hes on quite a bit of a heater. Ive only had one losing day past two weeks I recall. Pending Vancouver tonight ill be just over 57 units, 58 if they win. I did hit a couple small parlays... I would estimate parlays amount to 15-20 units of profit. Rest has been from systems. I am just flat betting everything to win 1 unit and if there is a losing day I add it to labby lines. I keep them as fresh lines until I have a losing day. With systems like Wallco Gold hitting 23-3 (88%) this season there has not been many losing days where I need to increase my wagers.

I missed out on quite a few wins as well avoiding teams that are below .500. Like Washington today I did not play because of their record. I am not sure if I should keep doing this, but i have plenty of action still, so doesn't hurt I guess.
#113

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Quote Originally Posted by samcro1 View Post
Hi, I'm new here, I have a question. I just read the JM v3 PDF file, and most of your examples mentioned buying 3 points. Do we really need to buy the 3 points in order to make the system work? Or is it alright if we just play the line?
I play the line, not buying points, and betting series 1-7-5 method. This has not been thoroughly backtested, but it works for me. Description of 1-7-5 and the other four bet strategies can be found in last year's JM NBA thread in many posts.
#115

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Quote Originally Posted by samcro1 View Post
Hi, I'm new here, I have a question. I just read the JM v3 PDF file, and most of your examples mentioned buying 3 points. Do we really need to buy the 3 points in order to make the system work? Or is it alright if we just play the line?
Go to Wallco's post 100 for link...start at the beginning and go to about post 250 or so, all the info is there. There's a lot of BS you can skip over but that's where the bulk of the info is.
#120

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I went back to read the thread last year. and found out this records. we all are aware that it was a short season. and I also picked up some comments that it was a horrible season. if the records below are correct.

JM Traditional


4/3/2013


V1


Current chase record W/OUT buying points: 41-3-2
Current chase record WITH buying 3 points: 43-3
Current series pending: 0


V2


Current chase record W/OUT buying points: 29-4
Current chase record WITH buying 3 points: 29-4
Current series pending: 0


V3


Current chase record W/OUT buying points: 63-5-4
Current chase record WITH buying 3 points: 69-3
Current series pending: 5 (Dallas B Bet)


1. Houston Rockets A Bet -3.5 @ Sacramento Kings
Houston Rockets A Bet (since > -3 play ML) @ Sacramento Kings


2. Memphis Grizzlies A Bet -4 @ Portland Trailblazers
Memphis Grizzlies A Bet (since > -3 play ML) @ Portland Trailblazers


3. New Orleans Hornets A Bet +7 @ Golden State Warriors
New Orleans Hornets A Bet (if buying 3 points) +10 @ Golden State Warriors


4. Philadelphia 76ers A Bet -5 @ Charlotte Bobcats
Philadelphia 76ers A Bet (since > -3 play ML) @ Charlotte Bobcats

I will think it was profitable since. there are more series win than loss. if any one can explain . why it was a terrible season. this may guide us to a better decision this year.

from what I am thinking if you wage to make 500 in each series and one series went 42 - 3 that should bue 39 * 500 for the season. please correct me here.