This is my first post, I've been reading the forum for a while.
I'm not a pro-handicapper by any means, but I've been on a hot steak with playoff basketball, and figured I'd start putting it on record.

1Q Nuggets 1.5 5U - To start obviously the Nuggets just absolutely need this game. Carmello is looking to attack the basket early. Kobe seems to try to get the team involved, and it seems Pao Gasol gets a lot of touches. The less Kobe Shoots the better. It usually takes him(Gasol) a little bit to get started. I'm looking for the Nuggets to start strong, most likely hitting from downtown early. The Nuggets have shot to well from downtown to keep quiet like they did last game. The Nuggets have had the lead in the 1Q 2 out of the first 3 games. The only worry here is that there is either a layover from game 3, or that Melo gets into foul trouble early if he decides to cover Kobe. However I'm still loving the Nuggets in the 1Q because they just NEED this.

Over/Under 210, UNDER 10 U - I see this game going two ways. Either the Nuggets win handily, or its very close. Either way it favors the under. If the Lakers decide to roll over and die like they did against the Rockets than the Nuggets may get to 110, but I don't see the lakers getting to 100. If its close defense comes to premium and it still remains under. We haven't seen anything out of either team to expect a back and fourth shootout.

Nuggets 10 U -4.5 - It's a lot of points considering its a close series. The Lakers are Notoriously bad on the road in game 4's when Phil Jackson is the coach. This just isn't an important game for the Lake Show. The lakers time and time again have proven they aren't a tough team. The Nuggets have proven they are tough. If we look at the books most of the money is going to the lakers yet the line is moving towards the nuggets. The books want money on the lakers here. Its a trap if I've ever seen it. The books want to ride the emotions of betters who just saw Kobe "The Closer" dominate game 3. How quickly people forget that previous to game 3 the Nuggets were 12-0 against the spread. Some important notes. Carmello was a Ghost in the second half, does that really happen again? The Nuggets big 3 point shooters Billups, Melo, and J.R. Smith shot 5-24 from downtown. That will not happen again. The Nuggets went away from the Clayza at the 4 spot which was money for them in spreading the court. Look to them to go back to this and put pressue on the lakers perimeter D. The Lakers have terriblely soft frontcourt play. Look for Denver to Solidify the paint, opening up the 3 point shots. The lakers got good numbers from Pao in the second half. Look for that to end as well. Nene needs to play more physical while staying out of foul trouble. And the Birdman just feeds off home court.


Big problem with my bets is that lang is with me on some of this. I don't like that one bit. Good Luck