got bored while watching quaifing on sunday. made a list of winners for the year and thus chase drivers. drivers with at least 1 win...
48,20,18,5,4,24,11,2,99,41,15,16. so 12 drivers make it on wins. could be 14 if 1, or 9 hit the board. leaves either 2 or 4 spots on points. lean towards 88,14,22,78 for points. if amrose doesnt win on road coarse then i think final spot comes down to jamie or truex.
with that said, lets look at first 3 chase races. winners have bonus points so feel that based on points those would be the 12 that advance, however of the 12 id say 16 would be most liekly not to advance since nh is a bad track for the biff. however, if he gets chicago or dover could still advance. first four out would be 1(or 9) 16, 22 and 88 (unless jr can get a win in first 26)
next 3 as croney said may define championship. of 12 left andpoints now all equal, this is where kyle better get thru kansa or is going to need a win at charlotte. jj must be carefull as well as charlotte dont good for him lately. with that i project next four out as 22, 41, 14 and 99.
and then there was 8...if jj get to here could be lights out. 3 tracks of martinsville, tx and pho got his name all over the place. should get a win to advance. others (again if they get here) would be 24 and 11. all are very good at the 3 tracks and could be race winners. if not 1 will make it on points or 2 if we have multi winner. (choices for that would be 48, or 11)..think its time for 5,4,2 and 20 to go home. list changes if klye is out then i think 4 goes thru.
last race? ill take 11 in a trhilling finish over 18 and 24.
so with that i got 6 units on hamlin @15 from wynn bet back in december before all changes came out, all my other early bets seem worhless at this point, but i do have some 5,4,16 and 22 (again bet back in december with the thought that they will at least make chase 12. now with 16 should make chase but the throw out formatt makes it a little tougher on these guys)
william hill props found a few plays. jr elimited in challenger round 7/1. gordon out in championship round +3.5. kurt out in contender round +150. and kahne out in eliminator round +2.40