Championship Futures

got bored while watching quaifing on sunday. made a list of winners for the year and thus chase drivers. drivers with at least 1 win...

48,20,18,5,4,24,11,2,99,41,15,16. so 12 drivers make it on wins. could be 14 if 1, or 9 hit the board. leaves either 2 or 4 spots on points. lean towards 88,14,22,78 for points. if amrose doesnt win on road coarse then i think final spot comes down to jamie or truex.

with that said, lets look at first 3 chase races. winners have bonus points so feel that based on points those would be the 12 that advance, however of the 12 id say 16 would be most liekly not to advance since nh is a bad track for the biff. however, if he gets chicago or dover could still advance. first four out would be 1(or 9) 16, 22 and 88 (unless jr can get a win in first 26)

next 3 as croney said may define championship. of 12 left andpoints now all equal, this is where kyle better get thru kansa or is going to need a win at charlotte. jj must be carefull as well as charlotte dont good for him lately. with that i project next four out as 22, 41, 14 and 99.

and then there was 8...if jj get to here could be lights out. 3 tracks of martinsville, tx and pho got his name all over the place. should get a win to advance. others (again if they get here) would be 24 and 11. all are very good at the 3 tracks and could be race winners. if not 1 will make it on points or 2 if we have multi winner. (choices for that would be 48, or 11)..think its time for 5,4,2 and 20 to go home. list changes if klye is out then i think 4 goes thru.

last race? ill take 11 in a trhilling finish over 18 and 24.

so with that i got 6 units on hamlin @15 from wynn bet back in december before all changes came out, all my other early bets seem worhless at this point, but i do have some 5,4,16 and 22 (again bet back in december with the thought that they will at least make chase 12. now with 16 should make chase but the throw out formatt makes it a little tougher on these guys)

william hill props found a few plays. jr elimited in challenger round 7/1. gordon out in championship round +3.5. kurt out in contender round +150. and kahne out in eliminator round +2.40

after yesterdays score, put 8 units on harvick at 12 and 10/1 to win cup. still think he has to get thru the first 3 (which should be easy with points, dont think he will win any of those) but after that he is top 4 at least

Weird seeing jj hold steady at around +225 considering you likely can get him for that the day of the last race

Originally Posted by homervdoh

Weird seeing jj hold steady at around +225 considering you likely can get him for that the day of the last race

Agree. But I suppose it does mean the odds are better on others because of it.

Ambrose 500-1 seems high considering hes gotta be 30-40% to win one race this year, I know his chase chances would still be way slim but not 500-1 slim

I'm growing to like you homer.

Go #9 Go!

Originally Posted by Optional

I'm growing to like you homer.


Go #9 Go!

He stays out of trouble first 3 races, lucks a top 5 at Talladega, suddenly hes 4 races from a cup amirite

I got Harvick at 20-1 before the season started and doubled it up at 20-1 before the Phoenix race. That's the only one I've got out there so far...I like the bet :-)

I got carl 23-1, kurt 25-1, and bowyer 33-1 so far in addition to Ambrose, bet kurt before gimmicky points setup was announced

Truex and austin sitting there 300-1, dillon way up there in points but hasnt come close to a win, 78 a dumpster fire so far but they gotta turn it around right?

To me if youre getting more than 100-1 on a guy and he even makes the chase its worth it, they're resetting the points every 3 races for penetrate's sake

Originally Posted by homervdoh

To me if youre getting more than 100-1 on a guy and he even makes the chase its worth it, they're resetting the points every 3 races for penetrate's sake

Agree, value wise. meh about either's real chance though.

I'm hoping Tony Stewart keeps drifting. He's the one I think will definitely pop up and win a race eventually, as well as being capable of actually winning it. No matter how poor the rest of his season has looked.

So the field is set now and biffle and newman are still 200-1and 250-1. Sewer money?

Comparison of odds.

If you think 5Dimes know more than other books... Looks like Harvick, Logano and Kurt Busch are worth a bet, and JJ and the 3 JGR guys are a good fade.

Love the 100/1 on Edwards at Carbonsports (Sportsbook group)

	5Dimes	Carbon	Greek	B365
Kevin Harvick	325	500	400	450
Jeff Gordon	425	350	400	450
Brad Keselowski	450	400	400	450
Jimmie Johnson	600	400	500	450
Joey Logano	750	800	900	900
Dale Earnhardt Jr	775	700	700	700
Kyle Busch	1400	1200	1200	1200
Matt Kenseth	1400	1200	1200	1200
Kurt Busch	1500	2500	2000	2200
Denny Hamlin	2100	1800	1800	1800
Kasey Kahne	2250	2000	2000	1800
Carl Edwards	5000	10000	4000	4000
Greg Biffle	20000	20000	7500	8000
Ryan Newman	25000	20000	7500	10000
Aric Almirola	25000	25000	20000	20000
AJ Allmendinger	NA	25000	20000	20000
Theoretical Hold	23.00%	25.67%	26.15%	23.75%

Got harvick at 20, 15, 12,11 for about 24k.
Got brad at 8 for 13k
Got joey at ironicly 22 for 12k
Got hamlin at 15 for 10k
Kahne at 18 for 10k
Biffle at 40 for 9k
Jj for a cover at 4.5 for 4k

Only need some gordon i think. But like crony said months ago..talledaga as the last race of segment 2 could be a killer. If any top dog wins kansas or charlotte..you can bet a little heavier as the 3 segment should offer little or no surprises.