Be hilarious if this one goes under too then public give up and pound the under in Manly game only for it to go over.
AND it went under by 1 on the closing price of 42.5 so the moral of the story is the people who took the opener of 40.5 wonOriginally Posted by Tim Gerry Mander
Stats support it and I had pencilled this in during the week.
Only concern is the new coach and the Warriors should come out better in defence.
The Bulldogs have also come off a very physical match last week.
And it is being played in a different country.
Plenty of points scored in the NYC.
The NSW cup game was a grindfest though.
7 of the last 10 at all venues have gone over this total.
8 of the last 10 in NZ have gone over this total.
Money pushes lines , if you miss you the value has gone. No better indicator of this then here. I myself was on the closer ( lack of urgency costs money )
Keep going TGM you are the Premier NRL capper on SBR
Week 6
#31 Roosters -6 @ $1.90 (BET 365) - 2 UNITS - [LOSS]
#32 Sharks +10.5 @ $1.92 (IASBET) - 1 UNIT - [LOSS]
#33 Panthers/Rabbitohs OVER 36 @ $1.90 (BET 365) - 1 UNIT - [LOSS]
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Week
Bets Placed: 3
Bets Won: 0
Bets Push: 0
Bets Lost: 3
Strike Rate: 0%
Units Wagered: 4
Units Loss: (4)
ROI: -100%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
YTD
Bets Placed: 33
Bets Won: 21
Bets Push: 1
Bets Lost: 11
Strike Rate: 63%
Units Wagered: 32
Units Profit: 8.33
ROI: 26%
Absolutely awful week last round.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing.
Obviously the Roosters are struggling for combinations this year and I picked the wrong time to play a 2 unit on them.
Unlucky on the Panthers total play - they had so much ball in Souths 20m zone and couldn't post any points.
The greasy conditions did not help but I still think it was the right play.
Round 7 plays to follow.....
Yep, exaclty!AND it went under by 1 on the closing price of 42.5 so the moral of the story is the people who took the opener of 40.5 won
Money pushes lines , if you miss you the value has gone. No better indicator of this then here. I myself was on the closer ( lack of urgency costs money )
Keep going TGM you are the Premier NRL capper on SBR
Couldn't have said it better myself Angelo.
Thanks for your kind words.
Just to reiterate the point.
I really like the Broncos this week @ Newcastle.
Of the last 3 games in Newcastle, the Broncos are 2 wins and 1 draw.
Of the last 6 games overall, the Broncos are 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss.
Broncos record in Newcastle is excellent.
They opened at +4, but are now into +2 at most books.
NEVER take a worse line.
It is now a NO PLAY for me, now matter how appealing the game looks.
You'll be surprised how many times you get done by a worse line.
Round 7
#34 Sharks +8 @ $1.92 (IASBET) - 1 UNIT
#35 Tigers +7.5 @ 1.92 (IASBET) - 1 UNIT
#36 Sea Eagles/Cowboys UNDER 38.5 @ $1.90 (IASBET) - 1 UNIT
#37 Dragons/Warriors OVER 42 @ $1.91 (BET 365) - 1 UNIT
Sharks have a decent record at home and they've fared very well against the Roosters there.
They are 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss against the Chooks in their last 6 games at Shark Park.
Catching +8 here is a great spot, especially at home where they at least have been competitive.
The Roosters have the ANZAC day game against the Dragons to look forward to, so there may be a look ahead spot.
Their form has been off - they are losing close games that last year they were winning.
They are still getting caned by the referees and this season it is affecting their performances.
The Sharks are a dismal 2-4 ATS this season, but the Roosters are a horrible 1-5 ATS.
The Roosters should win but i expect a tight tussle between two desperate teams which means a big start like this will help the hapless Sharks.
Both teams are also UNDERS magnets and I would not be surprised if this stays under too.
For today going for two overs and the under in the broncos game.
Broncos line back to +3.5 TGM
I like UNDER in all 3 games today.For today going for two overs and the under in the broncos game.
I saw the Cowboys team at the airport yesterday.
Spoke to a few of the players.
Their defence has been great this season - they are fully aware that they need to do more in attack.
I just think that with DCE out for Manly and the game being at Gosford, it becomes a grind so I am expecting a very close game.
As for Bulldogs/Rabbits - these games are notoriously close, especially the Good Friday clash.
Both teams are great defensive teams and are good at choking opposition.
I can see something like 18-12 or 14-8
Four is the key number mateBroncos line back to +3.5 TGM
Is someone out for Broncos?
EDIT - Thaiday in doubt for Broncos
Last edited by Tim Gerry Mander; 04-17-14 at 07:08 PM. Reason: Add info
Perfect day in Sydney for attacking football, should be a good crowd. I expect Souths and Bulldogs to go over and think Souths at nearly even odds here is a play also despite their outs.
No solid read on the other games, lean towards Manly. NQ are a terrible away team and Manly easily accounted for them by 20 same venue last year.
The reason the total wasn't lower was because of the weather.
It should have been around 36.
What game are refs watching?
FFS
Forward pass not called, then try given for blatant obstruction
2 refs, 2 touch judges, video refs and they still can't get it right
Hard to watch/ bet on games like that, took under 114.5 on all Friday games that cashed by half a point so I wasn't too upset. Not sure how but refereeing seems to be even worse than seasons past.
Geez that's close
I don't mind the 50-50 calls, but it's blatant things they are getting wrong
Clear forward passes, clear obstructions, basic calls they are getting wrong
Classic case of too many cooks spoil the broth - need to go back to 1 ref, 1 video ref and 2 touch judges who control the 10m
