Tgm - nrl 2014
Due to popular demand, I've decided to start my own topic.
Here is a link to the 2013 season:
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/more-sport...em-2013-a.html
For those on twitter, check out: @NRLProphets
Good luck to everyone and let's make some serious cash!
Week 1
#1 Bulldogs/Broncos UNDER 39.5 @ $1.90 (BET 365) - 1 UNIT [WIN]
#2 Bulldogs ML @ $2.00 (TOM WATERHOUSE) - 1 UNIT [LOSS]
#3 Cowboys/Raiders OVER 41.5 @ $1.91 (SPORTSBET) - 1 UNIT [WIN]
#4 Panthers/Knights UNDER 42.5 @ $1.91 (BET 365) - 1 UNIT [WIN]
#5 Storm +6 @ $1.93 (PALMERBET) - 1 UNIT [WIN]
#6 Knights +2 @ $1.93 (PALMERBET) - 1 UNIT [LOSS]
#7 Sharks/Titans UNDER 40 @ $1.91 (BET 365) - 0.5 UNIT [WIN]
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Bets Placed: 7
Bets Won: 5
Bets Lost: 2
Strike Rate: 71%
Units Wagered: 6.5
Units Profit: 2.1
ROI: 32%
Week 2
#8 Broncos +2.5 @ $1.90 (TAB) - 1 UNIT - [WIN]
#9 Dragons +10 @ $1.94 (LUXBET) - 1 UNIT - [WIN]
#10 Storm/Panthers UNDER 42 @ $1.91 (5 DIMES) - 0.5 UNIT - [WIN]
#11 Panthers TT UNDER 15.5 @ $1.90 (BET 365) - 0.5 UNIT - [LOSS]
#12 Roosters/Eels UNDER 46 @ $1.91 (BET 365) - 0.5 UNIT - [LOSS]
#13 Titans/Tigers UNDER 48 @ $1.91 (BET 365) - 0.5 UNIT - [LOSS]
#14 Tigers +10.5 @ $1.92 (SPORTSBET) - 1 UNIT - [WIN]
#15 Knights/Raiders OVER 41.5 @ $2.00 (LADBROKES) - 0.5 UNIT - [WIN]
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Week
Bets Placed: 8
Bets Won: 5
Bets Lost: 3
Strike Rate: 62%
Units Wagered: 5.5
Units Profit: 2.215
ROI: 40%
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YTD
Bets Placed: 15
Bets Won: 10
Bets Lost: 5
Strike Rate: 66%
Units Wagered: 12
Units Profit: 4.32
ROI: 36%
Week 3
#16 Bulldogs +4.5 @ $1.92 (SPORTSBET) - 1 UNIT - [WIN]
#17 Sharks +5.5 @ $1.92 (SPORTSBET) - 1 UNIT - [WIN]
#18 Titans +7.5 @ $1.92 (LUXBET) - 1 UNIT - [WIN]
#19 Broncos/Roosters OVER 37.5 @ $1.90 (SPORTSBET) - 1 UNIT - [WIN]
#20 Sharks/Dragons UNDER 41.5 @ $1.90 (SPORTSBET) - 1 UNIT - [WIN]
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Week
Bets Placed: 5
Bets Won: 5
Bets Lost: 0
Strike Rate: 100%
Units Wagered: 5
Units Profit: 4.56
ROI: 91%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
YTD
Bets Placed: 20
Bets Won: 15
Bets Lost: 5
Strike Rate: 75%
Units Wagered: 17
Units Profit: 8.88
ROI: 52%
genial amigo!!! i follow
Good Stuff mate I'll be checking in Before the League tonight.
I was waiting all weekend for a +12, but the line has stuck at 10 and 10.5.
Luxbet have Knights+11.5 at $1.94, so I am taking that.
I believe the weekend's trend will continue tonight where the underdog covers the line - making it 8/8.
I also think that for the knights to win the game will have to stay under. I expect them to look for touch as much as possible and wind the clock down. The poor handling evident so far this round will continue making the under more appealing. So far this round6 of 7 games have stayed under.
The Knights have a good record in Melbourne and beat the Storm there last year in the semis.
The Storm are also coming off a grueling match last week which they arguably should have lost and I think will be a little flat.
They also have an interstate game next week wich they will be looking ahead to.
UNDER 42 @ $1.91 (BET 365) - 1 UNIT
KNIGHTS+11.5 @ $1.94 (LUXBET) - 1 UNIT
Its gone up a point at sports bet 11.5 there as well
Good job starting off the season Mander.
I'm winning where it counts but I totally goofed my thread whilst you have just flat out owned.
Also on under 42 tonight, good luck.
Good luck TGM. Killing it so far.
Agree with the look ahead, Storm have a short rest before Bulldogs on Saturday.
Is it back bad move to buy the point for this one? 1.94 for +11.5 1.76 for +12.5
Pretty confident that the knights can keep it within 10 but very confident they can keep it within 2 converted tries
line has just gone up to 12 on luxbet @1.92
Unless you know that it's +EV don't ever buy points.Originally Posted by snufflyjoe
Is it back bad move to buy the point for this one? 1.94 for +11.5 1.76 for +12.5
Pretty confident that the knights can keep it within 10 but very confident they can keep it within 2 converted tries
Nowadays the regular line is almost always better.
well, you can get +12 @ 1.95 at pinnacle
Unders was looking great until BJ Leilua lost the ball from a scrum win and the Storm scored from the mistake. No wonder the Roosters let him go. He is prone to some brain explosions.
The floodgates opened after that.
The knights and the refs did their best to help the storm cover the start near the death, but it stayed at 8 and we didn't need the extra .5 points.
1-1 on the night.
All underdogs won at the spread this round.
