AylukeAy's AFL thread.

Hello guys.
I have been running a thread in the cricket forum and posting AFL plays in their over this NAB cup so far.
Feel that its a better idea to separate the 2 and post AFL bets in this section where their seems to be a decent little community of AFL punters.

I have been successful betting AFL for a number of years, go to 2 matches per week (already been to one NAB cup game this year), AFL member and its my best sport money wise $$$ although i have been loving my results on the Horses lately, but in winter AFL takes full focus.
I specialise in handicapping the line and pricing up the h2h markets but have also had a lot of success with player prop markets like goals/disposal markets so will look to continue smashing those markets in the season proper.
I will not be posting any 'futures bets' until after the NAB cup season when i finalise list assessments and draw analysis, but until then lets try and build the bank a little with some small bets on the NAB cup.


Regular season betting 1 to 5 units per match usually in the middle, but on NAB maximum bet is 3 units, small stake plays in exhibition games is the order of the day.

looking forward to some afl actions.

pie supporters here

I am a bombers man myself, but try not to be too biased

These are the bets I have posted in the cricket forum for the NAB cup

Results:
Geelong 2.5 units @ 1.62 to beat collingwood Win +1.55 units
Hawks (-36.5) 2 units @ 1.91 to beat Brisbane Win +1.82 units
Richmond (1-39) 1.82 units @ 2.20 to beat Melbourne Loss (-1.82 units)
North Melbourne (1-39) 1.55 units @ 2.20 to beat Carlton Loss (-1.55 units)
Adelaide 3 units @ 1.65 to beat Port Win + 1.95 units
Essendon +9.5 2 units @ 1.92 to beat Goldcoast win +1.82 units


Current p/l +3.77 units

Pending:

West Coast 3 units @ 2.11 to beat Freo (betezy)



Placed the 3 unit play on Saturday night after reading article about WCE's likely team..come today their are articles from the coach saying he expects the game to be a bit messy as they adjust to the new game plan which is not ideal....But the strength of the eagles team is ideal, as they are a month ahead in their prep compared to freo- and wce players are playing for spots, freo for practice. So still happy with the play, but if i was betting now instead of locking in 2 nights ago, i would perhaps decrease my bet to a slightly less confident play at bigger odds for 2 units instead of 3 in a perfect world.
This price has gone against me, but back myself to be right more often than not with early prices, which worked a treat for Ade and Geelong matches...But since we have locked and loaded the bet 48 hours ago happy to ride it out on a good underdog

Lets go!!!!

Goodluck. Jumped in at $2.40 ml. Bol for the season proper.

Good luck. I played the dockers but not looking good for me.

Originally Posted by the tross

Goodluck. Jumped in at $2.40 ml. Bol for the season proper.

Thanks mate! Bol to you also, $2.40 looks pretty nice at halftime with an 11 goal lead, well played!

Dockers not really having a real red hot crack that half, not ideal for you aussieH, but as a west coast backer i am loving it, naturally.

Jeeeus wtf. Great call bruv. Your write up was spot on. Thanks for sharing the play.

Thanks mate. Nice to get a maximum bet home especially when its an underdog...

Tonights game I have looked at a number of options. Stk to win as a big under dog. Bulldogs 1-39 hoping saints keep it close.
But at the end of the day none of them really appeal to me so its a no bet game for me.

Happy to sit on our +7.1 unit profit and wait for a better spot.


last nights match:

West Coast 3 units @ 2.11 to beat Freo win+3.33 units

Total p/l + 7.10 units

Very small play on tonight's game. GWS are pretty much at full strength here and will be looking to put on a good competitive show, Syd missing Buddy, Tippet and Goodes will perhaps hopefully lack some scoring power up forward which will hopefully keep the scores on the lower side and keep GWS in with a good chance of staying close. Always keen to fade Syd in pre season as they are serial non triers in this micky mouse stuff and will be more focused on getting games into the kids.




GWS +22.5 1.6 Units @ 1.92 to beat Sydney (Sportsbet)

Not sure what to take from tonight's match, GWS where okay for parts and very rusty for others, Syd where far from full strength and far from good but simply just got the job done. in the 3rd qtr we looked like a real chance of winning the line but after the break syd dominated the first 7 minutes of the last qtr and then both teams put the cue in the rack.
Still tracking nicely with 5.5 unit profit, and to be honest any profit made in the pre season even as low as 1 unit is a decent start to start the real stuff just building that bank ready to go round 1, and if we keep making +ev plays the winning % on turnover will take care of itself.

Interesting matches the next two nights, will want to wait until the final squads are announced and 3 emergency non players named as one team resting 2-3 of their best players that you expected to line up could change everything.


GWS +22.5 1.6 Units @ 1.92 to beat Sydney Loss (-1.6 units)



Total P/L +5.5 Units

After watching both teams last week more than happy to be on the hawks here, brent harvey out forthe roo's is a bonus, and i am convinced Brad Scott does not care about winning in nab cup at all, which can make them a team to fade especially without their captain against a superior team in hawks who very sharp last week albeit playing a weak Bris.


Hawks 3 units @ 1.57 to beat North Melbourne (palmerbet)

Im in at 1.50 for 2 units.
Lets get this.

Coll 1-39 points 1.71 units @ 2.30 (sportsbet)


just a small play on a market i think can occur 50% of the time, Richmond all most full strength but still i have big ? over their team fwd problems!

Hawks 3 units @ 1.57 to beat North Melbourne win +1.71 units
Coll 1-39 points 1.71 units @ 2.30 loss (-1.71 units)


Total P/L + 5.5 Units

early play for Tue


Essendon 2.5 units @ 1.60 to beat Port Adelaide (betstar)



Ess pretty much full strength here with Jobe, BJ, Chapman, Fletch etc included for this match- only 2 'unknown' players Thurlow who did a decent job as back up ruck, and Gleeson who despite being a rake impressed at half back in the first practice match. Port also a much stronger side than their last match but still playing a lot of kids and their is a clear gulf in class in these 2 squads.