Coopertrooper's 2014 AFL Thread

Thanks mate, good to see the forum as a whole is turning out profits again on AFL markets!

Finals Week 2

Play #1 - Geelong -7.5, $2.00 X 2 units (Topsport)

Taking advantage of the early $2 line. Geelong come into this match off a somewhat competitive match against the hawks, while the roos fought hard to sneak past the bombers. The more telling game for me was that of the roos and bombers. Essendon were able to get well on top and should not have lost the lead they have - they crumbled when momentum went against them. The roos don't posses a purely skilled team that can dominate a final, but showed they are capable of playing in patches. The fact that the bombers wilted under the pressure was telling, as the pressure was a notch lower than in the game that Geelong was able to hang in for, for at least a half. Geelong will not let up with their pressure, nor will they allow a side to control the game with a run of such momentum. They have the experience to slow the game when required. History already suggests it is difficult for sides outside the top 4 to make the prelims. I don't see the roos as being a side which is capable of breaking such a trend, particularly not against the team they will be facing.

Coop, one Q for u. What about the stadium for this game? I see it listed as MCG. Any reason this game is NOT being played at Geelong home site?

Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Coop, one Q for u. What about the stadium for this game? I see it listed as MCG. Any reason this game is NOT being played at Geelong home site?

I guess my Q is: Is this truly a Neutral-site game?

SCarred that johnson and mctosh is out but im with u on the cats

The ground: There has been quite a bit of discussion in recent years (particularly last year) that Geelong shouldn't ever have home finals because of the stadium size and a perceived home ground advantage that is larger than any other. They got one last year in a qualifying final (the only non-elimination games in the finals) in Geelong, and it caused plenty of controversy. For an elimination game, it is not realistically on the cards. And given the roos play few home games at the MCG, it isn't a big deal. The qualifying final was also against a non-Victorian side, so the expected crowd was low, whereas a game between 2 Victorian sides is usually expected to draw a good crowd.

In terms of Johnson/McIntosh: Johnson was in doubt all week and the mail was always that he would miss. I made this play assuming he was out. McIntosh I wasn't sure about, but I personally am unconvinced about his impact in big games anyway. I don't see it having a major impact, I think this Geelong side on paper is much better than the roos side.

Thx, Coop. Great answer. Good luck!

Thanks mate.

Geelong play their worst final in a long time (their lowest possession count in EIGHT years) and still were only possibly 2 seconds away from sending it to extra time. I haven't seen Geelong's midfield dominated like that in a long time.

Finals week 2: 0-1 -2 units

I love AFL. Great sport. One rule I don't like = shots that go thru (but were TIPPED) only count 1. Doesn't make sense. That's like saying a Field Goal that's tipped shouldn't count, even if it goes thru. A goal should be 6, even if it's tipped.

It is a very different dynamic though. The fact that it is the ultimate mode of scoring means it needs to meet strict criteria (I usually compare this to a try in rugby as I don't know NFL well; they need to keep control, can't have multiple movements, it can't come off someone else, etc.), whereas if the ball goes through for a behind (the only minor scoring option) then it doesn't matter what or whom it came off (as a touched/tipped field goal wouldn't).

I don't like it, man. How many soccer goals score via deflection? Just part of the game. Salud, pal.

YTD: 43-3-47 +2.62 units

Finals Week 3

Play #1 - Hawthorn 1-39, $2.25 X 1 unit (Lad)

The hawks have had the week off and are primed to launch their bid for back-to-back premierships. The hawks have a habit of playing close prelim finals in recent times, and despite port's upset win against freo, they are good enough to be a top 4 side in most seasons. I expect them to make this a tough contest, but ultimately the hawks should prevail. They are the better side on paper, they get to play at home, are rested and in form. port have struck some form, but will have a few more km's in the legs after travelling to just run down the dockers. I like the hawks 1-39 for 1 unit.

Hawks almost fell over at the end, but just did enough to hold on!

Finals Week 3: 1-0 +1.25 units

YTD: 44-4-47 +3.87 units

With 2 futures plays running, there are 2.5 units currently staked, so there is a guaranteed profit to this point in time. With a 10 unit payout if the hawks win next week (more if Ablett wins the brownlow), there is a possibility to hedge out, which I may consider during the week. I may also post some brownlow medal plays if time permits.

I think the line is fairly sharp for the grand final, so not many plays for me. Will have a bit of a hedge out of the Hawthorn year bet:

Grand Final

Play #1 - Sydney Win, $1.63 X 5.5 units (Beteasy)

With 2 units on the hawks @ $5, this ensures a profit on the grand final. So, we can use some of those guaranteed profits to try and make this season's result a reasonable one:

Play #2 - Norm Smith Medal: J Kennedy, $8.50 X 1 unit (Beteasy)

Just a shot for the medal on a very good player.

Good luck to all and enjoy the day!

Also need to add the draw, to ensure there is no chance of a loss today:

Play #1B - Draw, $67 X 0.15 units (SB)

Having trouble quoting, but with the grand final bets and 2 other season bets:

Remaining bets: 1-3 +0.85 units

YTD: 45-4-50 +4.72 units

Despite a tough middle patch, the year ends in profit. My time was chewed up, so I struggled to make many plays through the second half of the year. I will hopefully be back, but time issues will bite me again next season I fear. I will atempt to add an ROI at some time if possible.

Well done to the hawks and to everyone who had a good season!