Coopertrooper's 2014 AFL Thread

Busy few weeks coming up at the moment, only the one play I really want to get on at this stage.

Round 13

Play #1 - North Melbourne H2H/ML, $2.00 X 3 units (Any book)

Despite having to travel to Adelaide for this match, the roos look to be the form side. Despite also being up and down throughout this season, north can smell a finals spot and will look to sow it up by virtually eliminating one of the few remaining threats for a finals spot. The crows have played some good football at Adelaide Oval in recent weeks, however, the roos have travelled well this season and will not be put off. If this game were at a neutral venue, north would almost certainly be favourites. One of the bigger pays this year, 3 units.

Well that is as bad as the roos have played all year, despite quite a bit of support for them in the end. Can't stop my ice cold run right now.

Round 13: 0-1 -3 units

Need to update the overall record: YTD: 29-1-38 -12.44 units

Round 15

There is again a special for leading at any break but losing, so will be taking advantage of it. I don't think this round has any major upsets coming, so will jump on 8 teams with this special:

Play #1-8, Each team H2H/ML, 1 unit each:

Geelong $1.40
Hawthorn $1.18
Richmond $1.15
Fremantle $1.25
Sydney $1.06
North Melbourne $1.16
Port Adelaide $1.36
Collingwood $1.26

Not a big week here, just a good chance at clawing some of the losses back. I hope to have the time for more plays and write-ups soon, but the outside world is determining that at the moment I'm afraid! Hopefully the season-long bets will provide enough of a late boost to bring this year back into the green.

Originally Posted by Coopertrooper

Play #1-8, Each team H2H/ML, 1 unit each:

Geelong $1.40
Hawthorn $1.18
Richmond $1.15
Fremantle $1.25
Sydney $1.06
North Melbourne $1.16
Port Adelaide $1.36
Collingwood $1.26

Overall 6 win and 2 get money back after leading at quarter time.

Round 15 +1.3 units

YTD: 30-1-38 -11.14 units

Round 16

Play #1 - Collingwood H2H/ML, $1.92 X 1.5 units (TAB)

I think Collingwood are turning up today. After a frustrating loss to the suns last year, there is again plenty on the line, with the chance for the pies to sew up a top 8 spot and dream of the top 4. With a number of defensive players back in the side, only the defensive general Maxwell is missing. The suns don’t have the most potent attack, so will rely heavily on their midfielders to kick goals. If the pies can get on top in the middle, they can attack while also drying up the suns scores. While the suns have everything to play for, they are already getting the best from their guns and I don’t see them stepping up again today. 1.5 unit play.

Sums up my year, getting within a kick and Young dropping a mark directly in front in the most crucial play of the game. A pathetic showing from the pies, the worst month of football in at least 5-6 years.

Round 16: 0-1 -1.5 units

YTD: 30-1-39 -12.64 units

Sorry for the late play, but I've been flat out!

Play #1 - Hawthorn H2H, $1.70 X 1 unit

Play with the great promo of money back if your side loses by 20 or less. Will be a few more of these to come.

Play #2 - West Coast H2H, $1.47 X 1 unit

Play #3 - Port Adelaide H2H, $1.54 X 1 unit

Play #4 - Collingwood H2H, $1.55 X 1 unit

All plays with the money back promo. No time for big write-ups, but I think these 4 can get it done or will at the least turn up to play. The promo makes these plays.

Round 17: 2-1-1 +0.17 units

YTD: 32-2-40 -12.47 units

Disappointing result with Collingwood continuing it worst run of football in this decade and Port also falling into a serious slump, putting at risk the season bet on them after being 2 games clear on top not long ago.

The same special is on this week, so there are some more bets.

Round 18

Play #1 - West Coast H2H, $1.52 X 1 unit

Play #2 - North Melbourne H2H, $1.24 X 1 unit

Sticking with these 2 sides for now. North should account for the blues on Friday night, despite a better form patch from them, while West Coast hosting Richmond provides the tasty opportunity to get what looks like a safe $1.52 bet. Hopefully some more losses will be clawed back this week!

Round 18: 0-1-1 -1 unit

North Melbourne somehow managed to get beaten (and well beaten) by Carlton (23 points, just over the money back range). West Coast also managed to lose at home to the tigers, but fell into the money back zone. A round with a lot of upsets out of the way, leaving another unit lost. There is still some time to cut into this deficit for the year, but results continue to be very rocky, so I will continue to make few plays. The year has not evened out at all.

YTD: 32-3-41 -13.47 units

I apologise that I have been unable to post many plays in the past few months for any of those that were following. I have some plays for tonight and may have more over the weekend:

Round 20

Play #1 – Essendon 1-39, $2.25 X 2 units (Lad)

Essendon has quite a tricky run into the finals, needing more wins to secure a finals spot. With upcoming games against 9^th, 11^th, 12^th and 13^th, they need to keep clear of those sides, which makes it vital for them to hit the next month hard. I expect to see that tonight, with the 12^th placed tigers holding onto only the slimmest of finals dreams. Richmond have started to find a little bit of form, but is in no better form than the bombers, while the bombers have the better side on paper. The money has come for the tigers, blowing out the odds to an interesting position. I’m taking the bombers to get the job done, but the tigers form is too good to let this blow out. 2 unit play.

Essendon were so wasteful. Won the midfield battle for most of it but butchered the ball forward of centre. These weird results where sides are on top but can't put it on the board are killers.

Round 20 0-1 -2 units

YTD: 32-3-42 -15.47 units

Despite such an ugly season I will still post plays when I can. I like one play for tonight:

ROUND 21

Play #1 - Geelong 1-39, $2.30 X 3 units (Lad)

I haven't had many 3 unit plays this year, but I'm making this one of them. Carlton have hit a little bit of form, but the cats are playing for a home final (and to sure up a top 4 spot, not that theirs is really in danger). They are warming up for a tilt at the flag, so it would be shocking to see a drop in effort. The game is at Etihad, which suits the blues, so it is hard to see Geelong dominating. Percentage is a non-issue for a top 2 spot, as the gap is too great to the swans and hawks, so they don't need to over-extend themselves if they have a comfortable lead. Everything is pointing towards the cats winning but not dominating, so am going with one of the equal-largest plays of the year.

Geelong should win tonight

Bit of a late update, but the cats got home by 6. Carlton made it a little too close for comfort near the end, but thankfully a big play finally hits.

Round 21: 1-0 +3.9 units

YTD: 33-3-42 -11.57 units

A small update on the season bets - With port likely needing a good win in the last game against freo to make the 4, there may be a chance to at least hedge out of that bet. The hawks still have work to do to win the premiership, while Gaz's injury has brought him right back to the pack for the Brownlow. I'll most likely be riding out all 3 bets and seeing whether they can find a way to hit.

I still need to find the time to figure out the years ROI, I may well do this at the end of the season when I have a bit more time.