Round 8: 0-3 -3 unitsOriginally Posted by Coopertrooper
Play #2 - Hawthorn -6.5, $1.93 X 1 unit (B365) LOSS
Play #3 - Sydney/Hawthorn Under 181.5, $1.91 X 1 unit (B365) LOSS
Play #4 - Parlay: Total Odds $3.69 X 1 unit (B365) LOSS
-Hawthorn -6.5, $1.93
-Sydney/Hawthorn Under 181.5
Not sure how only a few players out for the hawks can rattle the minds of other teammates. They looked scared, haven't seen that in many years. Not sure what to think about the hawks right now.
Round 8: 1-3 -0.27 units
Play #1 - Port Adelaide -7.5, 1.91 X 3 units (CB) WIN
Port continue to impress, they are unstoppable at home at the moment.
Last edited by Coopertrooper; 05-10-14 at 05:35 AM. Reason: .
YTD: 26-28 -3.06 units
Will likely not have time to make any plays this week, but this comes at a good time. The bye rounds are a good time to step back and ease up! Will hopefully be back to having a lot more spare time on my hands in a month or so.
Bye's are a great time to sit back and reassess, no doubt you will be back. What do you think of your Pies heading to Adelaide tomorrow?YTD: 26-28 -3.06 units
Will likely not have time to make any plays this week, but this comes at a good time. The bye rounds are a good time to step back and ease up! Will hopefully be back to having a lot more spare time on my hands in a month or so.
Thanks mate. Have barely had a chance to think about it, although I have not thought highly of the crows this year (wasn't expecting too much from them this year anyway), so I think we should get the job done. I've been surprised with how well our backline has held up.
Bye's are a great time to sit back and reassess, no doubt you will be back. What do you think of your Pies heading to Adelaide tomorrow?
Round 10
Still very busy and am happy to take it easy again this week. Just the one game I've looked at:
Play #1 - Collingwood -22.5, $1.92 X 1 unit (Lux)
Play #2 - Collingwood 1-39, $2.10 X 1 unit (CB)
I think the pies will respond fiercely at home and I think West Coast can be suspect on the road (I also think a side that has a bad game after the bye is likely to bounce back the next week when the line is softer). I like the chance of a middle here, 1 unit on each.
Unlucky to have both key backs go down injured in the first half, but lucky that the pies somehow dug deep to ensure this one wasn't a wipeout.
Play #1 - Collingwood -22.5, $1.92 X 1 unit (Lux) LOSS
Play #2 - Collingwood 1-39, $2.10 X 1 unit (CB) WIN
[b]Round 10: 1-1 +0.10 units
Unlikely to make any plays tomorrow, will try and make some time for next week if possible. Can't wait until I have more time on my hands again in a few weeks to really analyse some plays.
YTD: 27-29 -2.96 units
Round 11
Play #1 - Sydney 1-39, $2.20 X 2 units (Lad)
Play #2 - Carlton -15.5, $1.92 X 1.5 units (Lux)
Play #3 - Gold Coast +7.5, $1.92 X 1 unit (Lux)
Play #4 - West Coast -8.5, $1.92 X 1 unit (SB)
Play #5 - Sydney H2H/ML, $1.42 x 1 unit (SB) *This match has a money back special
Play #6 - Carlton H2H/ML, $1.42 x 1 unit (SB) *This match has a money back special
Play #7 - Gold Coast H2H/ML, $2.15 X 1 unit (SB) *This match has a money back special
Play #8 - West Coast H2H/ML, $1.62 X 1 unit (SB) *This match has a money back special
Play #9 - Parlay: Total Odds $4.20 X 0.5 units (Lad)
-Sydney 1-39, $2.20
-Carlton -16.5, $1.91
Play #10 - Parlay: Total Odds $17.04 X 0.25 units
-Sydney 1-39, $2.15
-Carlton -16.5, $1.92
-Gold Coast H2H, $2.15
-West Coast -8.5, $1.92
Finally had some time this week to look over some plays. With a good special on offer (money back if team leads at the end of a quarter but lose the match), there are a number of plays this week.
The swans should simply be too strong. Geelong are starting to taper just a little, while the swans have their forwardline clicking quickly and their midfield back into good form. The loss of 2 key cats backmen (Lonergan and Enright) hurts, despite the return of Johnson. The cats are not a side to get blown away often, so the $2.20 available for the 1-39 margin looks very juicy. It is my favourite play of the week, hence the 2 unit play. Another unit on the win with the special.
The other play I am quite keen on are Carlton. They've found a way to get output out of key players and will be keen to put some demons to rest against the lions. Brisbane are playing horrible football, back to the lazy side we saw in the first 1/3 of last year. They should be blasted away. 1.5 units on Carlton at the line (you can never be too careful with the blues, they are still an ordinary side) and 1 on the win.
The suns have been impressive thus far, although their draw has been very soft. With a tough 6 weeks ahead, the suns need to keep winning games. Despite having to travel to Adelaide, I think they will get over the crows, whom I still don't see as a real chance to play finals football. There seems to be an a train of thought going around that the suns will have been too distracted by Ablett being looked at by the MRP, with the suns odds drifting ever since he got off (as surprising as that sentence is!). But don't be fooled - the suns would have been expecting him to get off that charge, as did most of the football road. Their focus is on securing their first finals spot and giving themselves the best shot at a top 4 finish as they can. Getting a 7.5 start is too juicy to let pass, as well as the win bet special. 1 unit on the line and 1 unit on the win.
West coast fly home to play the roos, after a disappointing display, where they could not capitalise on a shattered backline, despite their huge amount of tall forward talent. They'll want to atone and are back at home. The roos have been Jekyll and Hyde all season, but they have been good on the road, with big wins against the swans and freo. Can they strike to make it 3/3? I don't see it happening, with West Coast eager to ensure they keep touch with the 8, while the roos again appear to be drifting along without any real sense of purpose. 1 unit at the line and 1 unit the win.
I've also parlayed up my favourite 2 plays (Sydney 1-39 and Carlton -16.5) with the best combined odds I can see, and also a parlay of all 4 games, expending 0.5 and 0.25 units respectively.
Always important to get a good feel of things early after the bye, so hopefully it will be a good start as we head towards the second half of the season!
Shocking start to the week. Can't believe I put faith in the cats keeping it close instead of taking the line. Painful way to continue a frustrating season at the moment. Hopefully the rest of the weekend will be better!
Play #1 - Sydney 1-39, $2.20 X 2 units (Lad) LOSS
Play #5 - Sydney H2H/ML, $1.42 x 1 unit (SB) WIN
Play #9 - Parlay: Total Odds $4.20 X 0.5 units (Lad) LOSS
-Sydney 1-39, $2.20
-Carlton -16.5, $1.91
Play #10 - Parlay: Total Odds $17.04 X 0.25 units LOSS
-Sydney 1-39, $2.15
-Carlton -16.5, $1.92
-Gold Coast H2H, $2.15
-West Coast -8.5, $1.92
Round 11: 1-3 -2.33 units
Last edited by Coopertrooper; 05-29-14 at 10:35 PM. Reason: Round update added
Play #11 - Collingwood -10.5 First Quarter, $1.90 X 1.5 units (SB)
Collingwood should come out of the blocks strongly tonight. They know this is a game where they need to make up some percentage and I expect to see it from the outset. -10.5 is a good line, the $1.90 may not be around for long. Every other book has it below $1.90, so there has been some money around for it already.
Good start to finish performance.Play #11 - Collingwood -10.5 First Quarter, $1.90 X 1.5 units (SB) WIN
Round 11: -0.98 units
Hey Coop, haven't been around SBR for awhile but was just checking in at my thread and noticed that comment you left about me. Very kind words mate, thank you.
I don't quite recall what I said haha, but you are most welcome sando.Hey Coop, haven't been around SBR for awhile but was just checking in at my thread and noticed that comment you left about me. Very kind words mate, thank you.
Wow, what a disaster. Carlton were pathetic, rolling over after leading by enough to cover with 10 minutes to go to BRISBANE. West Coast got completely rolled at home, their season is done. The suns lost such a vital game, their spot in the 8 will now be eyed off by sides like the bombers and crows. I got it terribly wrong on the suns and eagles.
Play #2 - Carlton -15.5, $1.92 X 1.5 units (Lux) LOSS
Play #3 - Gold Coast +7.5, $1.92 X 1 unit (Lux) LOSS
Play #4 - West Coast -8.5, $1.92 X 1 unit (SB) LOSS
Play #6 - Carlton H2H/ML, $1.42 x 1 unit (SB) PUSH
Play #7 - Gold Coast H2H/ML, $2.15 X 1 unit (SB) LOSS
Play #8 - West Coast H2H/ML, $1.62 X 1 unit (SB) LOSS
Round 11: 2-1-8 -6.48 units
YTD: 29-1-37 -9.44 units
Taking it on straight after the bye round ended in a smashing. poor luck earlier in the year is being compounded by the last few months. I'll have to think about what types of plays I'll be making in the future.
Don't worry mate you weren't the only one who had a poor week! Get back on it next week and trust your instincts
Thanks mate. Hopefully it was just a one-off week.
This season can still be rescued, with the pre-season bets looking like returning a profit. Just need to undo the damage from round 11 quickly!
