Had to come and post after that one. Had a terrible bad beat with a total earlier this year and now another absolute shocker. Went from being a big winning night to a losing one with scores almost doubling in the last quarter. Unbelievable.Originally Posted by Coopertrooper
Play #2 - Collingwood 1st Quarter lead 1-18, $2.20 X 1.5 units (Bet365) WIN
Play #3 - Richmond/Collingwood Under 172.5, $1.91 X 2 units (Bet365) LOSS
Round 4: 1-1 -0.20 units
will carltom destroy melbourne?
Unlucky on the over play last night. I actually had the over and was pissed I did not play the under in those conditions throughout the game.
Round 4: 3-3 +0.85 units
Play #1 - Fremantle H2H, $2.00 X 1 unit (Centrebet/Sportingbet) WIN
Play #4 - Western Bulldogs 1st Quarter lead 1-18, $2.30 1 unit (Bet365) LOSS
Play #5 - Western Bulldogs 1-39, $2.30 X 1 unit (Sportsbet) WIN
Play #6 - Parlay: Total Odds $25.50 X 0.25 units (Bet365) LOSS
-Collingwood 1-18 1Q, $2.20
-Western Bulldogs 1-18 1Q, $2.30
-Hawthorn 1-18 1Q, $2.10
-Adelaide 1-18 1Q, $2.40
Frustrating round. The shocking beat on the total starting things off, then the dogs started poorly which was the only leg of the parlay to miss. The dogs proved too good in the end, while the dockers smashed the bombers after losing a couple of key players on match day. The round at least ended in a profit.
YTD: 22-17 +5.64 units
I'll be adding an ROI figure when I get some time, but I've been super busy. I think it should be around 12-15% so far.
Round 5
Very late Monday lines:
Brisbane +21.5/Richmond -21.5
Collingwood -1.5/North Melbourne +1.5
Sydney +4.5/Fremantle -4.5
West Coast -1.5/Port Adelaide +1.5
Essendon -47.5/St Kilda +47.5
Adelaide -30.5/GWS +30.5
Melbourne +23.5/Gold Coast -23.5
Western Bulldogs -12.5/Carlton +12.5
Geelong +10.5/Hawthorn -10.5
Play #1 - Fremantle -4.5, $1.92 X 3 units (Sportsbet)
Play #2 - Port Adelaide H2H/ML, $2.00 X 1 unit (Sportsbet)
Play #3 - Parlay: Total Odds $14.16 X 0.5 units (Sportsbet)
-Richmond -21.5, $1.92
-Fremantle -4.5, $1.92
-Port Adelaide H2H, $2.00
-Carlton +12.5, $1.92
I'm flat out for time right now, so write-ups will have to come later in the week. I will say that I think Fremantle are being seriously underrated even with a weakened side, while Port are just being flat out underrated (despite the poor effort they showed in round 3, which was redeemed in round 4).
Why are Pies only -1.5? They had 2 days extra rest too.
Maybe because North beat Collingwood last year and are in slightly better form with three straight wins.
Not sure about the last couple of years, but a 6 day break V an 8 day break was +EV backing the 6 day sides to win for the 3 years before then. The travel home will add in another factor with that short break, but their form looks good now, after their shocking start (the bombers formline looks pretty good) against the bombers.
However, I won't be betting against Collingwood this week.
Fremantle come up against the swans... while the swans are at home, how did this sit at -4.5 (It has currently moved to -6.5 at most books, -5.5 is up at Luxbet)? The dockers are definitely below full strength at the moment, but have lost to only one side (clearly the best side in the comp) and are playing an out-of-sorts swans outfit that doesn't look like clicking in the short-term. Franklin isn't clicking, the midfield looks slow and key players are unable to have an impact. Why would this suddenly change, just because they face a dire situation of 1-4? The dockers are the major contender to challenge the hawks for the flag, so they aren't going to accept a 3-2 start. They have the better side on paper and the better form. This line was crazily low, I would have set it closer to 15.5, and would not be surprised to see it hit double figures (provided there are no massive team shocks).Play #1 - Fremantle -4.5, $1.92 X 3 units (Sportsbet)
Play #2 - Port Adelaide H2H/ML, $2.00 X 1 unit (Sportsbet)
Play #3 - Parlay: Total Odds $14.16 X 0.5 units (Sportsbet)
-Richmond -21.5, $1.92
-Fremantle -4.5, $1.92
-Port Adelaide H2H, $2.00
-Carlton +12.5, $1.92
Next up is port... who come in as underdogs? The power have played 1 poor game (a small loss to the roos, which is also looking like a favourable form reference) and were sluggish at times in 2 of their 3 wins, but have rebounded with hunger. Their form is good and they play the eagles, who also sit 3-1 - however, their run has been easy thus far. 3 wins against the dogs, dees and st kilda does not suggest much more than the eagles being a middle of the table side. They were dismantled last week by Geelong (who, despite doing little wrong, haven't been blistering in all of their games either) completely. They get to travel home to try and re-group, but there is a big question on their form. Taking port at even money ($2 is still available with some books) is too tempting to refuse, so playing 1 unit.
Lastly, the parlay bet. 2 of the legs have been explained above. I like the tigers here, and if I had had more time I would have likely made them a play too. The -21.5 locked in for the parlay is no longer available (-26.5 is now the line). Richmond are clearly better than the lions, who are losing players to injury after losing players to trades over the off-season. With brown appearing to struggle on his last legs, the lions are ripe for the picking. This type of match-up comes at the perfect time for the tigers, who desperately need a good win. this could get ugly. The last leg is on the blues at +12.5, which has trimmed slightly to 11.5. The blues form is horrid, with little going right. However, they are likely to bring some key players back in (Waite and Garlett should play). The dogs have rebounded strongly from a heavy round 1 defeat, but this match-up screams of being a let-down spot for the dogs to me. Their defensive style has not been all that effective thus far (conceding 83 in a low scoring game, 98 and 83 to GWS in their past 3 games), and their leaders have had to bring them from behind to win games. I don't think Carlton will let one go, but an extra 2 goals insurance at $1.92 looks to be the play.
Like the under in the tigers v lions game. Lions will struggle to score and both teams on a six day back up
agree with the port Adelaide pick as well.
A very high total for 2 underish teams is a giveaway imo.
Round 5: 1-2 -2.5 units
Play #1 - Fremantle -4.5, $1.92 X 3 units (Sportsbet) LOSS
Play #2 - Port Adelaide H2H/ML, $2.00 X 1 unit (Sportsbet) WIN
Play #3 - Parlay: Total Odds $14.16 X 0.5 units (Sportsbet) LOSS
-Richmond -21.5, $1.92
-Fremantle -4.5, $1.92
-Port Adelaide H2H, $2.00
-Carlton +12.5, $1.92
Tough round, with Fremantle not showing up until it was too late. Another big play goes down, not having much luck with them this year. Hopefully Fremantle will only cost us the 3 units and not be the only leg of the parlay to fail. Getting sick of getting 3/4 legs very quickly.
Sure enough, Fremantle were the only leg to miss. Near on being a 13 unit turnaround if they cover, damn.
YTD: 23-19 +3.14 units
Round 6
I am going to struggle to get any early lines up for a while now. With the extended round for easter and early games for ANZAC day, there isn't much point now anyway.
Play #1 - West Coast -5.5, $1.91 x 3 units (Centrebet/Sportingbet)
Play #2 - Port Adelaide 1-39, $2.70 x 1 unit (Sportsbet)
Play #3 - Parlay: Total Odds $5.18 x 0.5 units (Sportsbet)
-West Coast -6.5, $1.92
-Port Adelaide 1-39, $2.70
Hoping luck turns around this week and the first 3 unit play can hit. West Coast pushed port at home, who are a very good side. While they have to travel to Melbourne for this game (and lose Glass to suspension), they come with much better form than the blues, who won their first match against fellow straggler the dogs. Carlton lose Judd and Curnow (Bell is said to be injured too) and simply look a much weaker side, so I'm surprised the line is this low. Unlike the dockers last week, the West Coast should not fail us here, not against such poor opposition.
The other match is port hosting the cats. While undefeated, history says the cats will be fatigued from another epic battle with the hawks. Port managed to get a good grinding win out in the west, where they were able to outlast their opponents. Back at home, where they are playing some good football, port should be very competitive. The cats are not going to roll-over, so I see very good value in the 1-39 margin, with port playing good football. Much of my fortunes this year will lie with the power standing up in these types of games, but as with the season bet for them to make the top 4, I expect them to be doing so!
Pretty sure port played away last week??Round 6
I am going to struggle to get any early lines up for a while now. With the extended round for easter and early games for ANZAC day, there isn't much point now anyway.
Play #1 - West Coast -5.5, $1.91 x 3 units (Centrebet/Sportingbet)
Play #2 - Port Adelaide 1-39, $2.70 x 1 unit (Sportsbet)
Play #3 - Parlay: Total Odds $5.18 x 0.5 units (Sportsbet)
-West Coast -6.5, $1.92
-Port Adelaide 1-39, $2.70
Hoping luck turns around this week and the first 3 unit play can hit. West Coast pushed port at home, who are a very good side. While they have to travel to Melbourne for this game (and lose Glass to suspension), they come with much better form than the blues, who won their first match against fellow straggler the dogs. Carlton lose Judd and Curnow (Bell is said to be injured too) and simply look a much weaker side, so I'm surprised the line is this low. Unlike the dockers last week, the West Coast should not fail us here, not against such poor opposition.
The other match is port hosting the cats. While undefeated, history says the cats will be fatigued from another epic battle with the hawks. Port managed to get a good grinding win out in the west, where they were able to outlast their opponents. Back at home, where they are playing some good football, port should be very competitive. The cats are not going to roll-over, so I see very good value in the 1-39 margin, with port playing good football. Much of my fortunes this year will lie with the power standing up in these types of games, but as with the season bet for them to make the top 4, I expect them to be doing so!
Bell won't play either he is having surgery on his hand. Having said that west coast's tall forwards will be too much for our small and poor back line.
I do like the port pick and considering the cats are only going to have a 6 day break compared to ports 8. Port should be too fresh for the cats
The 'at home' refers to West Coast, but I can see how it looks fairly ambiguous.
I heard the confirmation about Bell, had only heard a suggestion of it last night, it seemed like he wouldn't play with it surgery or not. It looks like it will be pretty tough to stop Kennedy, Darling and co, I'm surprised the line is looking solid at -5.5 now (although Bet365 have the line at -7.5).
