Good luck this week Cooper!
Thanks mate, same to you.
With a line of 8.5 tonight, the ability to go for a middle is now starting to look tempting, but I think I'll hold my fire here.
The swans line has come in, seemingly because the public rates the exclusion of Sam Reid as a big loss. I think the value against a weak crows team here is fantastic. Can't understand why the power are -0.0 now though, am I missing some team news (I've been out today)? They had money coming for them, but now a dramatic swing against. No idea how the roos can be close to becoming favourites for this one.
A well followed service must have tipped North is the only explanation i can think of
so weird.
Personally I think Sam Reid being omitted is a bonus for Sydney, they no longer have to try and juggle their big forwards and Buddy can do what he does best.Originally Posted by Coopertrooper
Thanks mate, same to you.
With a line of 8.5 tonight, the ability to go for a middle is now starting to look tempting, but I think I'll hold my fire here.
The swans line has come in, seemingly because the public rates the exclusion of Sam Reid as a big loss. I think the value against a weak crows team here is fantastic. Can't understand why the power are -0.0 now though, am I missing some team news (I've been out today)? They had money coming for them, but now a dramatic swing against. No idea how the roos can be close to becoming favourites for this one.
Busy weekend for me so I'll post an update at the end of the round. Just posting one more play for the weekend.
Play #7 - GWS first quarter lead 1-18, $2.10 X 1 unit (Bet365)
The giants start a match at the shortest odds they have ever been, against a weak dees side. I think both sides know that this is one of their best remaining chances for a win this year, so they'll play fairly tight football early. I'm expecting GWS to have the forward power to out score the dees, without getting well ahead, so playing this for 1 unit.
Round 3: 3-4 -2.93 unitsPlay #1 - Hawthorn 4th Quarter Only +1.5, $1.87 X 1 unit (Sportsbet) LOSS
Play #2 - Western Bulldogs/Richmond Under 192.5, $1.88 X 1.5 units (Sportsbet) LOSS
Play #3 - Sydney -6.5, $1.91 X 1.5 units (Bet365) WIN
Play #4 - Port Adelaide -3.5, $1.92 X 3 units (Sportsbet) LOSS
Play #5 - Parlay: Total Odds $6.93 X 1 unit (Sportsbet) LOSS
-Western Bulldogs/Richmond Under 192.5, $1.88
-Sydney -7.5, $1.92
-Port Adelaide -3.5, $.192
Play #6 - Hawthorn +1.5, $2.10 X 1 unit (Centrebet) WIN
Play #7 - GWS first quarter lead 1-18, $2.10 X 1 unit (Bet365) WIN
Tough round. The dogs winning goal killed the over, the hawks big start helped to cover the game line, but meant they switched off in the last quarter and port were well below their best against the roos, despite leading for large parts of the match and being run over (very unlike port) despite looking to have it covered. Frustrating that it happened on the biggest play of the year to date.
YTD: 19-14 +4.79 units
Will try and put some plays up soon, but I've been very busy and unable to look at the markets yet.
Round 4
Looking at a fairly quiet week for me - have not had a chance to look at the markets at all. I likely will be low on plays for the next month or so, but will still be putting a few through. I didn't see much value when I did look this week anyway.
Play #1 - Fremantle H2H, $2.00 X 1 unit (Centrebet/Sportingbet)
Think I'll be alone with this play, but the dockers are still clearly the second best team in my eyes. They may be missing a number of players, but they get to play the bombers at home, which is a huge advantage. Essendon have been playing an impressive brand of football, but I'm not sure they are up to the top 2 (Hawks and Freo), even when Fremantle are missing the quality that they are at the moment. $2.00 is juicy enough to have a nibble at, so playing for 1 unit.
Damn, love the confidence on the Dockers - wish I could be as confident as you are. The big loss last week however will be a determining factor in whether the Dockers can turn it around and play our usual fierce style. I hope we can do it for you!
Thanks mate. I think your boys will be pretty fired up at home after last week!
I'm with u on this 1 coop, I quite fancy the dockers.. GL sir
Essendon midfield is too big. Fyfe/Barlow is a huge loss... Hocking tags Mundy. Don't see it happening! Best of luck though
Mate, did you or anyone else that is reading this thread get the openers this week? I was under the pump on Monday/Tuesday and missed them.
take collingwood line good odds should win tigers suck
Cheers guys.
Not me I'm afraid, I've been swamped this week.Mate, did you or anyone else that is reading this thread get the openers this week? I was under the pump on Monday/Tuesday and missed them.
I'm leaning Collingwood at -10.5, but I like a different play:take collingwood line good odds should win tigers suck
Play #2 - Collingwood 1st Quarter lead 1-18, $2.20 X 1.5 units (Bet365)
Play #3 - Richmond/Collingwood Under 172.5, $1.91 X 2 units (Bet365)
Play #4 - Western Bulldogs 1st Quarter lead 1-18, $2.30 1 unit (Bet365)
Play #5 - Western Bulldogs 1-39, $2.30 X 1 unit (Sportsbet)
Play #6 - Parlay: Total Odds $25.50 X 0.25 units (Bet365)
-Collingwood 1-18 1Q, $2.20
-Western Bulldogs 1-18 1Q, $2.30
-Hawthorn 1-18 1Q, $2.10
-Adelaide 1-18 1Q, $2.40
Not really confident on that many lines this week, but think that games will be quite tight and low-scoring, particularly early, so I am mostly going with the 1-18 margins at quarter time. To start with, I think the pies will be the better side tonight, but not by all that much - Witts in the side never leaves me feeling confident that the forwardline won't leak the ball out easily, however support in the ruck will be needed (and frees up Jesse White). Consistent rain over the past few days should keep things low-scoring, with a small amount of rain expected to come down before and during the game, making what already looked like being a low-scoring affair even lower scoring. So, I like the number being offered by Bet365 of 172.5 and will take the under, as well as Collingwood to nudge their way in front at quarter time, for 2 units and 1.5 units respectively.
I also think the bulldogs will do enough to get the job done against GWS. The dogs have been underrated in the past couple of weeks, while the public is getting on the GWS bandwagon, wanting to see them do well. However, they still lack the experience to run with the dogs here. I think they will come out playing some reasonable football and keep it tight, but not well enough to lead the dogs, hence the play at 1-18 for the bulldogs. I also think the dogs will hold onto any lead they get and will not succumb to any challenge from the giants.
Lastly, a small parlay. Not many are willing to take them at these odds, but I see great value. If my thoughts on the first 2 hold true, then the hawks and crows will be a big chance of pulling this one off. Hawthorn are playing the Gold Coast, who are playing some good football - you'd expect the hawks to be up early, but for the suns to stick with them. Meanwhile, the saints are playing better than most expected, while the crows have been very poor. They are the better side and should come out with some fire, but don't be surprised to see the saints dig in for the fight.
Will be busy for the rest of the weekend, so may not make any more plays and will likely update at the end of the round. Good luck all!
Value bet for tonight: Richmond / collingwood @ $6.50
