Agree. Was probably my pick but I see down to 8-1 now. We’ll see.Originally Posted by JBEX
really don't get why #3 where's my ring (15-1) ml is so high in the oaks ..part of it is probably a middle of the road socal trainer and not a premier "national" level jock aboard ..jose lezcano just a cut below the best in the game imo
I wasn't even aware betting was open..looked at how much in the win pool and I would say with a high degree of certainty it's less than 1% of what will be bet..still,it's an early indicator of what the public is thinking but have a hunch she'll end up between 10-12Agree. Was probably my pick but I see down to 8-1 now. We’ll see.
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Oh yeah, it’s super early. Derby day brings big money and I’d say 10-14 would be my guess.I wasn't even aware betting was open..looked at how much in the win pool and I would say with a high degree of certainty it's less than 1% of what will be bet..still,it's an early indicator of what the public is thinking but have a hunch she'll end up between 10-12
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the above is updated Time form pace projector with the #21 drawing in.
Friday looks wet. Saturday may escape the weather. I hope so.
Will it rain enough Friday to knock them off the turf Saturday?
As the biggest day of the year they will do everything they can to keep it on the turf.Will it rain enough Friday to knock them off the turf Saturday?
Both Sierra Leone and Chasing Freedom are strong late closers. CF went 8 wide, last to first to win the LA Derby. If either are mid-pack at the turn they have a great shot. If it is an off track...doubt the pace will hold up for a closer to win.
I am under the impression that speed holds well in the slop? But maybe not a drying out track? See what happens.Both Sierra Leone and Chasing Freedom are strong late closers. CF went 8 wide, last to first to win the LA Derby. If either are mid-pack at the turn they have a great shot. If it is an off track...doubt the pace will hold up for a closer to win.
No doubt. I hope it’s not that many inches.As the biggest day of the year they will do everything they can to keep it on the turf.
The KY Oaks: R11: 4 Regulatory Risk 14 Leslie's Rose the #4 is currently 29/1 and the #14 7/1 10 minutes till they jump.
derby
#7 honor marie (12-1 currently)
only 3 starts as a 2yo were at churchill downs with 2 wins and
and a 2nd .. the 2nd was on a sloppy track so I give extra credit for both wins being on fast ones ..also the 2nd fast track win was around 2 turns in a grade 2..having not only 2 wins here but a grade 2 route at this track as a 2yo (enough 2's for you lol) carry a lot of weight ,no pun intended, for me ..looks like a really bad trip on a sloppy track in his 3yo debut @ the fairgrounds followed by a 2nd by a length in the louisiana derby (his last race)the latter at a 1 3/16 which is an extra half furlong further than the typical 1 1/8 mile preps ..he was closing a lot in that race so i prefer only an extra half furlong vs the longer furlong stretchout for the other major prep runners
being a deep closer he'll need a fast pace to set him up and think there's a good chance they'll be one today
this is my write-up and thoughts from looking at the pp's ..no other input from others written or video material which is very easy to get these days
THE JBEX PICK for the DERBY
Going with the #19 Resilience. also adding the #7 Honor Marie based on STR and the JBEX positions. will cover both horses with the #2 Sierra Leone. The edit is I cancelled the #18 play. to add the ex. THX.
Last edited by Easy-Rider 66; 05-04-24 at 02:52 PM.
Mike Beer from DRF also picked 19- Resilience. Hopefully he is right. My initial Derby picks are 3- Mystic Dan and 17- Fierceness because they are the only two horses that has cracked the 100 Beyer figure. I down graded Mystic Dan because McPeek and Hernandez won with Thorpedo Anna yesterday; it is rare for the same traner/jock to win both. But I will still play him. As for Fierceness, he is the best horse but we all know the best horse doesn't always wins. I like the 19- Resilence because like Mike Beer said, I think he may be peaking at the right time. Mott main man Alvarado is at the iron. He has shown that he can sit a few lengths off the speed horses. He is out of Into Mischief, his damn sire is Smart Strike (one of my favorite). His outside post maybe too much for him, but at 30-1, I will take a shot. All the other horses actually have a shot; but at huge odds, I will take 20- Society Man (ML 50-1). Wood memorial might give me the exacta... lol
My Pick 6 ticket wasn't bad today; other than Race 9, the rest are pretty much to form....
05/04 10:24 AM Churchill Downs 7 $0.20 P6 3, 6, 11 / 5, 11 / 5, 11 / 4, 5, 10 / 5, 11 / 17, 19 $28.80
