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Kentucky derby thread thoughts and predictions . Keep it going only derby picks

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#227

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Quote Originally Posted by harthebar View Post
YEA BUT DONT THEY HAVE TO REPORT ALL WORKOUT ANY TO THE DRF. WHATS THE BIG ADVANTAGE.
The final time of the work is meaningless

Anyone can encourage their horse to run a 46 half or 59 5f.

It's how they do it that makes workout reports valuable.

For instance Horse A worked 59 flat with the rider still as a statue
Horse B worked 59 flat under mild/heavy encouragement

Also Horse A worked 59 flat going out in 26 but flying home in last furlong in 11 is a lot different then Horse B going out in 23 and stumbling home in 13.

Just about all trainers will work them slow for the first 3/4 of the drill and then have them come home fast with a nice gallop out

That's also another thing reports give is after the official workout time is over they give you the gallop out time

Worked in 59 then galloped out 6f in 1:12 and 7f in 1:26

A horse that is raring to go is hard to pull up


There are a bunch of services .I think DRF just got in the game the last few years.I liked bruno de julio until he started thinking his w/o reports were worth more than they are.
#228

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GINO THE GUY ON TVG....WHO ARE SOME COMPANIES THAT REPORT THEM , IM CURIOUS HOW IT WORKS, OR HOW THEY LAY IT OUT.I GET WHAT YOUR SAYING, SO WHAT DOES THE OFFICIAL WORKOUT MEAN..... ITS WHAT YOU JUST SAID, BUT ITS HOW THEY DO IT.....MEANING HORSE A CAN HAVE FASTEST WORK OF THE DAY SO THEY LIST IT AS 1/21 BUT HE COULD HAVE worked 59 flat with the rider still as a statue SO BASICALLY HE COULD HAVE GONE MUCH FASTER, WHICH WE DONT SEE......LIKE THE WORKOUT GOLDENSCENTS JUST HAD ON TVG AT SANTA ANITA IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CARD....7F IN 1:21.7
Quote Originally Posted by mikemca View Post
The final time of the work is meaningless

Anyone can encourage their horse to run a 46 half or 59 5f.

It's how they do it that makes workout reports valuable.

For instance Horse A worked 59 flat with the rider still as a statue
Horse B worked 59 flat under mild/heavy encouragement

Also Horse A worked 59 flat going out in 26 but flying home in last furlong in 11 is a lot different then Horse B going out in 23 and stumbling home in 13.

Just about all trainers will work them slow for the first 3/4 of the drill and then have them come home fast with a nice gallop out

That's also another thing reports give is after the official workout time is over they give you the gallop out time

Worked in 59 then galloped out 6f in 1:12 and 7f in 1:26

A horse that is raring to go is hard to pull up


There are a bunch of services .I think DRF just got in the game the last few years.I liked bruno de julio until he started thinking his w/o reports were worth more than they are.
#231

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here is an example ...don't think I'll get in trouble if it's from a while ago


this is one race...so all these were entered is say race 5 and then every horse in the race that is in the database gets listed


Epoustouflant (KY) 10/16/2012 KEE 47.20 hg
Epoustouflant and Whatdidyousee worked from the Pletcher barn. Whatdid was best
and finished in 23.1, 47.1 and 101 flat. Epou was quick in 23.1, 47.1 and finished
101 but was being asked and looked second best. 2 star

Epoustouflant (KY) 10/7/2012 KEE 48.00 bg
Worked with Bow Bells and showed ton of speed in 23.1, 33.3 and then pulled up in
48 flat. Much better than looked. 3 star

Epoustouflant (KY) 10/1/2012 kee 49.00 b
Go Olivia Go and Epoustouflant worked from the pole here and went in 24.1 through
the lane here with Epoustouflant being the better of the two. Finished in 24.1. EZ out
in 102.3. 3 star

Hey Leroy 9/30/2012 cd 50.2 b
3wd, pushed some, tired some over chewed up track, poor maintenance. 1 star

Holden On (FL) 10/7/2012 KEE 48.80 b
EZ here and finished in hand for Catalano. Caught the eye here. 4 star

Indy Awesome 10/16/2012 cd 103 b
Worked with Snowfinch and didn't work sharply here after working well solo all
along 1 star
#238

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Quote Originally Posted by Easy-Rider 66 View Post
California Chrome received a 97 Beyer and a 110 Timeform figure for his Derby score. Lowest beyer ever assigned to a Derby winner since they were offered. Both figures were increased by about 5 points because of the wind.
which also virtually guarentees he will not bounce at all for Preakness, probably hit a new top fig and win by 6 or 7
#239

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Quote Originally Posted by Easy-Rider 66 View Post
California Chrome received a 97 Beyer and a 110 Timeform figure for his Derby score. Lowest beyer ever assigned to a Derby winner since they were offered. Both figures were increased by about 5 points because of the wind.

Everyone making excuses on why they have it so slow.I'm not buying it.No way every single horse regressed.At least CJ bumped it up a bit more than Beyer.Timeform 110 equates to a 103 beyer.

I'll back TFUS figs 100% but I think they can't figure out how much the wind factored most of all but also how much the track changed in the 2 hours 45 minutes since the last dirt race was ran race 9.
#240

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Quote Originally Posted by mikemca View Post
Everyone making excuses on why they have it so slow.I'm not buying it.No way every single horse regressed.At least CJ bumped it up a bit more than Beyer.Timeform 110 equates to a 103 beyer.

I'll back TFUS figs 100% but I think they can't figure out how much the wind factored most of all but also how much the track changed in the 2 hours 45 minutes since the last dirt race was ran race 9.
Well Mike, one of these days I might be able to disagree with you but you have , in my estimation, hit it right on the head again.

When dirt sits unwatered for a long period of time, it changes. That is an absolute given. Even if they watered it, which I would be shocked if they did not, after the turf race, it is nowhere near the same. That said, the track sitting for two hours plus is WAY over Andy's head. I have known him for too many years to count, him being a Washington Post guy for years before working for DRF. As of when I left or just before, he truly did not understand this concept like he should have. You could not convince him of the notion. We had a mutual friend that discussed this with me multiple times.
Between the idle track and the wind, it is a lost cause when it comes to beyers #'s in this case. This is one of many reasons that over the years I have said it is fine to look at them, but do not rely on them. When it came to my horses and the efforts put forth sometimes they were right but just as often they were not. And sometimes they were so far off it was laughable.
I never professed to know everything, but I sure as heck knew my horse . That being said, What I saw as proof, I was unable to show to others. You, they, and anyone else will simply have to believe me or not. It's totally up to each individual.

Hope that helps.