Kentucky derby thread thoughts and predictions . Keep it going only derby picks

Originally Posted by harthebar

now let me ask you....who faced tougher fields. Cc or hopper

This is such a difficult task to answer. Because for the most part we have no real comparison. Lets use their last 3 starts

CC raced against
Tamarando
Midnight Hawk
Kristo
SchoolofHardKnocks
Hoppertunity
Candy Boy
Dublin Up

Hoppertunity raced against
*California Chrome
Candy Boy
Dublin Up
Tapiture
Ride On Curlin
Strong Mandate
*Intense Holiday
*Albano
*Vicars in Trouble
Commanding Curve
Rise Up

*Lost to.

I am not sure how this helps you or how it explains it.


Lets look at some Brisnet Numbers

CC Average Race Rating = 116
Hoppertunity Average Race Rating = 116

Average Class Rating
CC = 116.8
Hop 116.6

Do what you will with that.....I will work on your other question this evening after I get a beer.

i will only play 1 horse that ive liked for sometime...Commanding Curve

Originally Posted by harthebar

ok, not at. all what tracks you want ?

Sorry for not getting back sooner. Meadowlands, Yonkers, Woodbine.. Anything
but the smallest venues interest me. Just once or twice a week would
be fine. Like to not only look at that nights races but see if my
running line method worked in any of their past races.

As far as your questions related to the Derby contenders like strength of fields
and horses passed it's just not my style to cap that way. I need a drf and to see
the whole thing in front of me to make a decision. Get a feel for it fairly quick and
for my purposes the advance talk and going by what I've seen in the preps doesn't
help me much. I'm guessing it'll be in Fridays form which will be out tomorrow so
I'll get to see it soon enough

Originally Posted by BGboothA

This is such a difficult task to answer. Because for the most part we have no real comparison. Lets use their last 3 starts







CC raced against
Tamarando
Midnight Hawk
Kristo
SchoolofHardKnocks
Hoppertunity
Candy Boy
Dublin Up

Hoppertunity raced against
*California Chrome
Candy Boy
Dublin Up
Tapiture
Ride On Curlin
Strong Mandate
*Intense Holiday
*Albano
*Vicars in Trouble
Commanding Curve
Rise Up

*Lost to.

I am not sure how this helps you or how it explains it.


Lets look at some Brisnet Numbers

CC Average Race Rating = 116
Hoppertunity Average Race Rating = 116

Average Class Rating
CC = 116.8
Hop 116.6

Do what you will with that.....I will work on your other question this evening after I get a beer.

Great post.... and the reason I am tossing CC

Heres my 5 early picks
wildcat red
vicars in trouble
samraat
california chrome
tapiture

All speed horses joey, you dont like any closers?

Pre pps

1st-Wicked Strong
2nd-Hoppertunity
3rd-Intense Holiday
4th-Medal Count
5th-Danza
6th-California Chrome
7th-Samraat
8th-Genral A Rod
9th-Ride On Curlin
10th-Dance With Fate
11th-Candy Boy
12th-Commanding Curve
13th-Uncle Sigh
14th-Vicars In Trouble
15th-Wildcat Red
16th-Harrys Holiday
17th-Tapiture
18th-Vinceremos
19th-We Miss Artie
20th-Chitu

Originally Posted by joeyp1222

Heres my 5 early picks
wildcat red
vicars in trouble
samraat
california chrome
tapiture

Well Joey, if you substitute Intense Holiday for Vicar's in Trouble we are either both going to be happy or both going to be sad. Still looking at stuff though, and post draw will tell me a lot more about my feelings on Vicar's Wildcat and Samraat

very close....meaning ...... that type of race .....

1	5	Hoppertunity	$14.20	$5.80	$4.20
2	3	Tapiture	-	$3.80	$2.60
3	2	Ride On Curlin	-	-	$4.60
4	4	Strong Mandate

Originally Posted by BGboothA

This is such a difficult task to answer. Because for the most part we have no real comparison. Lets use their last 3 starts

CC raced against
Tamarando
Midnight Hawk
Kristo
SchoolofHardKnocks
Hoppertunity
Candy Boy
Dublin Up

Hoppertunity raced against
*California Chrome
Candy Boy
Dublin Up
Tapiture
Ride On Curlin
Strong Mandate
*Intense Holiday
*Albano
*Vicars in Trouble
Commanding Curve
Rise Up

*Lost to.

I am not sure how this helps you or how it explains it.


Lets look at some Brisnet Numbers

CC Average Race Rating = 116
Hoppertunity Average Race Rating = 116

Average Class Rating
CC = 116.8
Hop 116.6

Do what you will with that.....I will work on your other question this evening after I get a beer.

Originally Posted by BGboothA

OK hart, I will take on the homework.

1. Lets look at the top 5 according to Brisnet Average Class Last 3 rating. this is usually a good indicator at what kind of competition you are running against.
WildCat Red 121.2
Cali Chrome 120.7
General A Rod 120.5
Tapiture 119.4
Samraat 119.3

2. It would be easier to list the horses that haven't raced 3 races in 2014, in fact many have raced 4 times this year.
Danza (2)
Chitu (2)
Candy Boy (2)
Commanding Curve (2)

3. This is a loaded question. there are no horses taht were never passed. If I am reading this right, you are talking about wiring the field. This has not happened all three times. Even CaliChrome was passed out of the gate and hit the first call at 2nd and 3rd. Not sure what you mean by this one.

4. Define very close? These horses were never more than X lengths back during the entire race. (last 3)
Cali Chrome 2 lengths
Samraat 2 lengths
WildCat 1.5 legnths
Chitu .5 lengths
General A Rod 1.25 lengths

5. Late closers, thats a large gap.
Dance with Fate gained 9 spots and 7+ legnths
Wicked Strong gained 5 spots and 7+ lenghts

Originally Posted by BGboothA

Well Joey, if you substitute Intense Holiday for Vicar's in Trouble we are either both going to be happy or both going to be sad. Still looking at stuff though, and post draw will tell me a lot more about my feelings on Vicar's Wildcat and Samraat

i too am waiting for the draw to tell me if wildcat is my top choice looking for about 8 different
post positions to go with

Great post for the top 2.... General A Rod and Wildcat.

A speed horse inside and outside of CC ..... instant toss !

Battaglia lost his mind with some of these mls



1-Vicars In Trouble 30-1
2-Harrys Holiday 50-1
3-Uncle Sigh 30-1
4-Danza 10-1
5-Cal Chrome 5-2
6-Samraat 15-1
7-We Miss Artie 50-1
8-General A rod 15-1
9-Vinceremos 30-1
10-Wildcat Red 15-1
11-Hoppertunity 6-1
12-Dance With Fate 20-1
13-Chitu 20-1
14-Medal Count 20-1
15-Tapiture
16-Intense Holiday 12-1
17-Commanding Curve 50-1
18-Candy Boy 20-1
19-Ride On Curlin 15-1
20-Wicked Strong 8-1

Well, 3 of my top 4 drew good positions I think (General A Rod, Danza, and Dance with Fate). Ride on Curlin not so much. I'll have to find an alternative. Probably either Samraat or Wildcat Red.

mike how did they draw this year, i didnt see, do they , pick from a container and they go right down the line, example, post 1 they pick and pull out a horses name.....or do the ask pick and see who has first pick, and they ..the owner /trianer pick the spot...if so who had first pick

Originally Posted by mikemca

Battaglia lost his mind with some of these mls



1-Vicars In Trouble 30-1
2-Harrys Holiday 50-1
3-Uncle Sigh 30-1
4-Danza 10-1
5-Cal Chrome 5-2
6-Samraat 15-1
7-We Miss Artie 50-1
8-General A rod 15-1
9-Vinceremos 30-1
10-Wildcat Red 15-1
11-Hoppertunity 6-1
12-Dance With Fate 20-1
13-Chitu 20-1
14-Medal Count 20-1
15-Tapiture
16-Intense Holiday 12-1
17-Commanding Curve 50-1
18-Candy Boy 20-1
19-Ride On Curlin 15-1
20-Wicked Strong 8-1

they pick a name(horse) and a pill(post)

It's random..no one gets to choose anything


Vicars In Trouble drew #1 right off the bat