Login Search

Kentucky derby thread thoughts and predictions . Keep it going only derby picks

Last Post
#136

Default

Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
CD

R4 #3 ty boo (12-1)..19 days and a similar drop when he ran 2nd last time he ran here. Also ran 2nd in one of his first 2 races as a 2yo here. try to beat the maker and romans suspicious and certain to be over bet drop downs

R5 #6 explosive (5-1)
R6 #8 derby kitten (5-1)
R7 #5 proud max (10-1)
R8 #8 teller terri (4-1)
R9 pass
R0 #4 fab autumn gal (8-1)
Wrong thread jbex. But thx for the picks. Will put your opinions into consideration today at Churchill.
#137

Default

I got a couple question's for you guys,. Lets say just so we can have some sort of range, of the derby horses...i cant go back to the b.c. Races. To long ago , and to much has changed with these horses....so that leaves with a date , and im going to use jan 1 2014 all races since then msw, allowlance , stakes and graded derby preps. All of them,
questions
1. Out of all the horses in the derby what 1 horse had the toughest combined competion, with in all his races...was it cc was it tapiture, who did they race , figure it out.....i mean we know its not danza, because he was lightly raced, and i'm not taking nothing away from him.....
2. What horse had at least 3 races since the jan 1 2014
3. How many horses that ran. In these races , now this is important, that was never passed at any point during a race, now i dont mean a dueling two horses, i mean a horse that was never completely passed in the back stretch turning for home, and not the last few feet at the finish line........he just kept moving forward...
4. How many horses went right to lead or stayed very close,,the entire race
5. How many horses, closed from the backstretch that were at least 8-10 lengths behind , and passed more that 6 horses.


Remember, this isnt a test,quiz.....i just want to know , what you think, there is no right or wrong answer
name the horse, also in a few of the races he was bet down, pretty good,
#139

Default

Thanks for the post, are you still needing harness pps
Quote Originally Posted by jbex View Post
cd

r4 #3 ty boo (12-1)..19 days and a similar drop when he ran 2nd last time he ran here. Also ran 2nd in one of his first 2 races as a 2yo here. Try to beat the maker and romans suspicious and certain to be over bet drop downs

r5 #6 explosive (5-1)
r6 #8 derby kitten (5-1)
r7 #5 proud max (10-1)
r8 #8 teller terri (4-1)
r9 pass
r0 #4 fab autumn gal (8-1)
#142

Default

JBEX, HELP ME OUT HERE......JUST NEED YOUR THOUGHTS ON THIS QUESTION I WROTE...



I got a couple question's for you guys,. Lets say just so we can have some sort of range, of the derby horses...i cant go back to the b.c. Races. To long ago , and to much has changed with these horses....so that leaves with a date , and im going to use jan 1 2014 all races since then msw, allowlance , stakes and graded derby preps. All of them,

questions
1. Out of all the horses in the derby what 1 horse had the toughest combined competion, with in all his races...was it cc was it tapiture, who did they race , figure it out.....i mean we know its not danza, because he was lightly raced, and i'm not taking nothing away from him.....
2. What horse had at least 3 races since the jan 1 2014
3. How many horses that ran. In these races , now this is important, that was never passed at any point during a race, now i dont mean a dueling two horses, i mean a horse that was never completely passed in the back stretch turning for home, and not the last few feet at the finish line........he just kept moving forward...
4. How many horses went right to lead or stayed very close,,the entire race
5. How many horses, closed from the backstretch that were at least 8-10 lengths behind , and passed more that 6 horses.6. WHAT HORSE RACED A COMBINE WEAKEST HORSES., HAD EASY FIELDS ,...NOTE..IM NOT TAKING NOTHING AWAY FROM ANYONE



Remember, this isnt a test,quiz.....i just want to know , what you think, there is no right or wrong answer
name the horse, also in a few of the races he was bet down, pretty good,
Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
No problem.. Yes like to have a look at them if you don't mind doing it
Last edited by harthebar; 04-29-14 at 04:57 PM.
#146

Default

YES YOU ARE RIGHT, ABOUT THAT......NOW YOU MIGHT HAVE TO WATCH SOME REPLAYS, I DID , THE PUZZLE LOOKS A BIT CLEARER.., AND TOSS THE HORSES YOU KNOW YOU SHULD, DID SOCIAL INCLUSION GET IN.

I got a couple question's for you guys,. Lets say just so we can have some sort of range, of the derby horses...i cant go back to the b.c. Races. To long ago , and to much has changed with these horses....so that leaves with a date , and im going to use jan 1 2014 all races since then msw, allowlance , stakes and graded derby preps. All of them,
questions
1. Out of all the horses in the derby what 1 horse had the toughest combined competion, with in all his races...was it cc was it tapiture, who did they race , figure it out.....i mean we know its not danza, because he was lightly raced, and i'm not taking nothing away from him.....
2. What horse had at least 3 races since the jan 1 2014
3. How many horses that ran. In these races , now this is important, that was never passed at any point during a race, now i dont mean a dueling two horses, i mean a horse that was never completely passed in the back stretch turning for home, and not the last few feet at the finish line........he just kept moving forward...
4. How many horses went right to lead or stayed very close,,the entire race
5. How many horses, closed from the backstretch that were at least 8-10 lengths behind , and passed more that 6 horses.
6. WHAT HORSE RACED A COMBINE WEAKEST HORSES., HAD EASY FIELDS ,...NOTE..IM NOT TAKING NOTHING AWAY FROM ANYONE...

Remember, this isnt a test,quiz.....i just want to know , what you think, there is no right or wrong answer
name the horse, also in a few of the races he was bet down, pretty good,


Quote Originally Posted by Heppy10 View Post
i think this year hoppertunity has faced toughest combined competition, california chrome, ride on curlin, tapiture, candy boy, intense holiday, vicars in trouble, bayern



#147

Default

What do you guys think about Dance with fate? He only had two bad races in his life, his first career race where he was off slow and pulled going 5 furlongs, and in the BC juvenile where he broke 12th and didn't show much. Besides that he hasn't come worst then second. He has a win at three different tracks which i think is a plus, and it looks like he definitely can handle the extra distance.

The only knock on him i can see is if he's more of a turf/poly horse then a dirt horse. IMO he reminds of one of my favorite horses Animal Kingdom and he was getting the same questions if he could run on the dirt, and we know how that turned out.

My only concern is if the track is off, if it is i might have to look elsewhere
#148

Default

Quote Originally Posted by harthebar View Post
I got a couple question's for you guys,. Lets say just so we can have some sort of range, of the derby horses...i cant go back to the b.c. Races. To long ago , and to much has changed with these horses....so that leaves with a date , and im going to use jan 1 2014 all races since then msw, allowlance , stakes and graded derby preps. All of them,
questions
1. Out of all the horses in the derby what 1 horse had the toughest combined competion, with in all his races...was it cc was it tapiture, who did they race , figure it out.....i mean we know its not danza, because he was lightly raced, and i'm not taking nothing away from him.....
2. What horse had at least 3 races since the jan 1 2014
3. How many horses that ran. In these races , now this is important, that was never passed at any point during a race, now i dont mean a dueling two horses, i mean a horse that was never completely passed in the back stretch turning for home, and not the last few feet at the finish line........he just kept moving forward...
4. How many horses went right to lead or stayed very close,,the entire race
5. How many horses, closed from the backstretch that were at least 8-10 lengths behind , and passed more that 6 horses.


Remember, this isnt a test,quiz.....i just want to know , what you think, there is no right or wrong answer
name the horse, also in a few of the races he was bet down, pretty good,
OK hart, I will take on the homework.

1. Lets look at the top 5 according to Brisnet Average Class Last 3 rating. this is usually a good indicator at what kind of competition you are running against.
WildCat Red 121.2
Cali Chrome 120.7
General A Rod 120.5
Tapiture 119.4
Samraat 119.3

2. It would be easier to list the horses that haven't raced 3 races in 2014, in fact many have raced 4 times this year.
Danza (2)
Chitu (2)
Candy Boy (2)
Commanding Curve (2)

3. This is a loaded question. there are no horses taht were never passed. If I am reading this right, you are talking about wiring the field. This has not happened all three times. Even CaliChrome was passed out of the gate and hit the first call at 2nd and 3rd. Not sure what you mean by this one.

4. Define very close? These horses were never more than X lengths back during the entire race. (last 3)
Cali Chrome 2 lengths
Samraat 2 lengths
WildCat 1.5 legnths
Chitu .5 lengths
General A Rod 1.25 lengths

5. Late closers, thats a large gap.
Dance with Fate gained 9 spots and 7+ legnths
Wicked Strong gained 5 spots and 7+ lenghts
#149

Default

Im not talking out of the gate, im talk once they settle into there race, like chrome, once he started racing he got the lead and passed evryone, i mean...like a horse that was 3ed 4th and got passed anywhere in the race, except at the finish line, ,in other words they were moving forward...hope that helps, social iclusion, he got passed pretty much at the finish line, where bayner got passed at top of stretch,....lets call it the first call 22.4 47.3 and so on........now let me ask you....who faced tougher fields. Cc or hopper
Quote Originally Posted by bgbootha View Post
ok hart, i will take on the homework.

1. Lets look at the top 5 according to brisnet average class last 3 rating. This is usually a good indicator at what kind of competition you are running against.
Wildcat red 121.2
cali chrome 120.7
general a rod 120.5
tapiture 119.4
samraat 119.3

2. It would be easier to list the horses that haven't raced 3 races in 2014, in fact many have raced 4 times this year.
Danza (2)
chitu (2)
candy boy (2)
commanding curve (2)

3. This is a loaded question. There are no horses taht were never passed. If i am reading this right, you are talking about wiring the field. This has not happened all three times. Even calichrome was passed out of the gate and hit the first call at 2nd and 3rd. Not sure what you mean by this one.

4. Define very close? These horses were never more than x lengths back during the entire race. (last 3)
cali chrome 2 lengths
samraat 2 lengths
wildcat 1.5 legnths
chitu .5 lengths
general a rod 1.25 lengths

5. Late closers, thats a large gap.
Dance with fate gained 9 spots and 7+ legnths
wicked strong gained 5 spots and 7+ lenghts