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Kentucky derby thread thoughts and predictions . Keep it going only derby picks

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#125

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Quote Originally Posted by cbiscuit View Post
Since predictions are what this thread started as how about this one: Social Inclusion wins KD with JJ Castellano on board.

What you're laughing? I see at least 2 more runners coming out of the 20 and figure at least 1 injury scratch upcoming. If he draws in he is a threat.

I agree Id love to see Social Inclusion get in the derby. It's a shame the majority of the horses that are going to run dont have a prayer. We Miss Artie should not be running for sure among several others.
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#126

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Quote Originally Posted by Draynay View Post
To bet on CC in the Derby The horse has been racing against Maidens and a few with 1 win in 4 horse fields..... CC has no business being a Derby favorite...... none....
nehro only had a maiden win going into derby in 2011 and was right in the mix
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#128

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OK, I have to admit. I spent a few hours today looking deeper into my top 12 or so after making some tosses early in the process. And well, WildCat Red is standing out more and more the more homework I am doing. I am still not convinced that he wins the race, but I am not sure there is a safer bet to hit the board. The only thing that scares me is the possibility of Chitu or Uncle Sigh going all Palice Malice and killing anyone close to the lead which WildCat has been.

If he doens't give the rail to Constitution there in the last turn, he has a pretty impressive resume'.
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#130

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Horse/Sire Watchmaker
Odds		 Last Race, Result,
and Beyer		 Next Likely Race,
Track, and Date		 Jay Privman and Mike Watchmaker Comments
California Chrome 3-1 Santa Anita Derby, 4/5 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Like how he puts himself in contending position, then strongly kicks on. Deserving favorite.
by Lucky Pulpit 1st by 5 1/4, 107 Churchill Downs, 5/3 MW: His SA Derby and San Felipe were, by far, the best pair of preps of anyone on this list.
Owner: Steven Coburn and Perry Martin; Trainer: Art Sherman; Jockey: Victor Espinoza
Wicked Strong 8-1 Wood Memorial, 4/5 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Sharp improvement from Florida trip - saved ground, swung out, mowed 'em down.
by Hard Spun 1st by 3 1/2, 104 Churchill Downs, 5/3 MW: Liked how he strongly ran through the wire. He should get a great setup in Kentucky.
Owner: Centennial Farms; Trainer: Jimmy Jerkens; Jockey: Rajiv Maragh
Hoppertunity 10-1 Santa Anita Derby, 4/5 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Liked his SA Derby a lot. In an obvious prep, Smith never hit him down the stretch. Beware.
by Any Given Saturday 2nd by 5 1/4, 98 Churchill Downs, 5/3 MW: I liked his SA Derby, too, but let's be real. He's got a big gap to close on California Chrome.
Owner: Karl Watson, Mike Pegram, et al; Trainer: Bob Baffert; Jockey: Mike Smith
Danza 12-1 Arkansas Derby, 4/12 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Prior form wasn't anything special. Won nicely, but now question quality of Ark. Derby field.
by Street Boss 1st by 4 3/4, 102 Churchill Downs, 5/3 MW: Do you think his vast improvement at OP was legit? For me, he's got some proving to do.
Owner: Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Joe Bravo
Candy Boy 15-1 Santa Anita Derby, 4/5 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Flattened out down stretch in SA Derby when distant third to horses I'd rank 1-2 right now.
by Candy Ride 3rd by 8 3/4, 92 Churchill Downs, 5/3 MW: Beyers are stagnant, but was good early in the year. Can improve second start off layoff.
Owner: C R K Stable; Trainer; John Sadler; Jockey: Gary Stevens
Dance With Fate 15-1 Blue Grass, 4/12 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Done best running on turf, synthetic. Coming back quickly, but hard to pass on opportunity.
by Two Step Salsa 1st by 1 3/4, 97 Churchill Downs, 5/3 MW: Connections stated he's best on turf, synthetic, and prefers more time between starts.
Owner: Sharon Alesia, Bran Jam Stable, Ciaglia Racing; Trainer: Peter Eurton; Jockey: Corey Nakatani
Intense Holiday 15-1 Louisiana Derby, 3/29 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Didn't have cleanest trip, wasn't going to catch loose leader. Should get more pace at CD.
by Harlan's Holiday 2nd by 3 1/2, 91 Churchill Downs, 5/3 MW: I wanted to see validation of his Risen Star win and did not see it in the La. Derby.
Owner: Starlight Racing; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: John Velazquez
Samraat 15-1 Wood Memorial, 4/5 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Thoroughly admirable Wood performance, fighting between rivals, getting up for second.
by Noble Causeway 2nd by 3 1/2, 98 Churchill Downs, 5/3 MW: Nothing new here, all of his races have been admirable. Ten furlongs remains a question.
Owner: My Meadowview Farm; Trainer: Rick Violette Jr.; Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Tapiture 15-1 Arkansas Derby, 4/12 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Was really high on him going into Ark. Derby, but baffled why he flattened out. Perplexed.
by Tapit 4th by 7 1/4, 90 Churchill Downs, 5/3 MW: Me too. He doesn't like rating, but maybe the Rebel beat him up more than we thought.
Owner: Ron Winchell; Trainer: Steve Asmussen; Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
Vicar's in Trouble 15-1 Louisiana Derby, 3/29 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: La. Derby pace scenario changed when Rise Up broke poorly. He, Napravnik capitalized.
by Into Mischief 1st by 3 1/2, 97 Churchill Downs, 5/3 MW: A nice colt. But he can't hope that every other pace horse breaks poorly at Churchill.
Owner: Ken and Sarah Ramsey; Trainer: Mike Maker; Jockey: Rosie Napravnik
Wildcat Red 15-1 Florida Derby, 3/29 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Admire how he battles it out every time. Can't see him getting 1 1/4 m, but he's tenacious.
by D'wildcat 2nd by a neck, 99 Churchill Downs, 5/3 MW: He got off setting an unexpectedly soft pace in the Fla. Derby. That won't happen at CD.
Owner: Honors Stable Corp.; Trainer: Jose Garoffalo; Jockey: Luis Saez
General a Rod 20-1 Florida Derby, 3/29 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Never really has run a bad race. He is probably just a tad inferior to the best at this point.
by Roman Ruler 3rd by 1 1/2, 97 Churchill Downs, 5/3 MW: Fla. Derby was first attempt at 9 furlongs, and might have revealed distance limitations.
Owner: J. Armando Rodriguez; Trainer: Mike Maker; Jockey: Joel Rosario
Medal Count 20-1 Blue Grass, 4/12 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Two nice races on Polytrack on consecutive weekends. He's improving. An exotics bomber.
by Dynaformer 2nd by 1 3/4, 94 Churchill Downs, 5/3 MW: Not certain he'll transfer his Kee form to CD. His true dirt capabilities remain unclear.
Owner: Spendthrift Farm; Trainer: Dale Romans; Jockey: Robbie Albarado Jr.
Ride On Curlin 20-1 Arkansas Derby, 4/12 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: No match for Ark. Derby winner, but certainly fought on bravely for second over Bayern.
by Curlin 2nd by 4 3/4, 94 Churchill Downs, 5/3 MW: I thought he was only picking up the pieces late. He needs to take a healthy step forward.
Owner: Daniel Dougherty; Trainer: William Gowan; Jockey: Calvin Borel
Chitu 30-1 Sunland Derby, 3/23 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4m JP: Entered in Derby Trial, but will scratch and go straight to Derby. Think 10 furlongs beyond his range.
by Henny Hughes 1st by 2 1/4, 102 Churchill Downs, 5/3 MW: After considering Derby Trial, it will be the Derby instead, after all. He is still in tough.
Owner: Tanma Corporation; Trainer: Bob Baffert; Jockey: Martin Garcia
Uncle Sigh 30-1 Wood Memorial, 4/5 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Raced wide in Wood but never really got into race. Seems like water getting deep for him.
by Indian Charlie 5th by 8, 91 Churchill Downs, 5/3 MW: His Wood was over when he got left, as he had no kind of trip after that. He can still run.
Owner: Wounded Warrior Stables and Anthony Robertson; Trainer: Gary Contessa; Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
We Miss Artie 30-1 Spiral, 3/22 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Far superior on synthetic to dirt, but when it comes to the Derby, Ramsey always "all in."
by Artie Schiller 1st by a nose, 85 Churchill Downs, 5/3 MW: Has floundered on dirt. Synthetic preps shouldn't have the same points as dirt preps.
Owner: Ken and Sarah Ramsey; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Javier Castellano
Harry's Holiday 50-1 Blue Grass, 4/12 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Last two races couldn't be more different - good Spiral, awful Blue Grass. Won mdn at CD.
by Harlan's Holiday 13th by 28 1/4, 48 Churchill Downs, 5/3 MW: Agree about his Blue Grass, but disagree on his Spiral. That race was run in slow motion.
Owner: Skychai Racing and Sand Dollar Stable; Trainer: Mike Maker; Jockey: Undecided
Ring Weekend 50-1 Calder Derby, 4/5 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Considering the quality of Calder Derby, he should have been more competitive at odds-on.
by Tapit 2nd by 9 3/4, 73 Churchill Downs, 5/3 MW: Certainly not the type of effort off which you'd like to go to the Derby, but he has points.
Owner: St. Elias Stable and West Point Thoroughbreds; Trainer: Graham Motion; Jockey: Alan Garcia
Vinceremos 50-1 Blue Grass, 4/12 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Willing to dismiss poor Blue Grass, first on synth, but was previously cut below best on dirt.
by Pioneerof the Nile 14th by 28 1/2, 48 Churchill Downs, 5/3 MW: No match for Ring Weekend two starts back in Tampa. A decided outsider against these.
Owner: WinStar Farm and Twin Creeks Racing; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Undecided
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#131

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Starting to widdle down my list. Spent last night looking at more replays, some interesting things jumping out.

1. WildCat's run in the Florida was impressive, Constitutions was really impressive, but he is out and doesn't matter. But that was a quality effort from WildCat in that run.

2. Commanding Curve's final two furlongs in the Louisiana was very very impressive. This horse isn't talented enough to win, but watching him move through traffic with ease like that, he will be on the back end of my exotics.

3. Wicked Strong is officially a toss, his win in the Wood was less and less impressive the more you watch it. And the speed figures show it. As well as he gained ground late in the wood his LP Brisnet speed was a horrible 86. Add that to a huge jump last time out, and it has return to form written all over it.
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#132

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I think how people bet is going to come down to what source of information you use.

IMO Brisnet pps aren't worth the ink to print them and Beyer figures aren't much better but at least they are made by humans and drf formulator is the best tool for angles.CJ(Timeform) and J Brown(Thorograph) are far and away the best at what they do.

Wildcat Red is a toss for me.If he can get 1 1/4 at CD I lose.When it comes to GP I have anyone that made up ground on most of the days being more impressive than front end horses who rode the carousel.

Am also getting a little scared of Wicked Strong but not because of his last race.It was arguably the best prep because of a solid pace on a more testing AQ track .Also my opinion that the knocks on him are misguided like he won because of the fast pace.He was only 4 1/2 off it at the 1/4 and 4 off it at the 1/2 so he was keeping pace while gradually moving forward into the teeth of the fractions.Which makes him kicking away at the end more impressive.I think he has progressed all winter but it was dirtied up by 2 excuse filled runs at GP.So I don't see it as a race out of nowhere or a big jump in ability.He showed his potential in the Remson and didn't get another chance to show it until the Wood even though his 2nd effort at GP was hidden .What is scary is that apparently he is a little bit of a head case so I won't know what to do with him until post time.
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#133

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Quote Originally Posted by mikemca View Post
I think how people bet is going to come down to what source of information you use.
Should expand on this.

The vast majority of the time all sources have agreed who was fastest, what horses figured , and most of who to toss.This year every source is different.
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#134

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Quote Originally Posted by mikemca View Post
I think how people bet is going to come down to what source of information you use.

IMO Brisnet pps aren't worth the ink to print them and Beyer figures aren't much better but at least they are made by humans and drf formulator is the best tool for angles.CJ(Timeform) and J Brown(Thorograph) are far and away the best at what they do.

Wildcat Red is a toss for me.If he can get 1 1/4 at CD I lose.When it comes to GP I have anyone that made up ground on most of the days being more impressive than front end horses who rode the carousel.

Am also getting a little scared of Wicked Strong but not because of his last race.It was arguably the best prep because of a solid pace on a more testing AQ track .Also my opinion that the knocks on him are misguided like he won because of the fast pace.He was only 4 1/2 off it at the 1/4 and 4 off it at the 1/2 so he was keeping pace while gradually moving forward into the teeth of the fractions.Which makes him kicking away at the end more impressive.I think he has progressed all winter but it was dirtied up by 2 excuse filled runs at GP.So I don't see it as a race out of nowhere or a big jump in ability.He showed his potential in the Remson and didn't get another chance to show it until the Wood even though his 2nd effort at GP was hidden .What is scary is that apparently he is a little bit of a head case so I won't know what to do with him until post time.
Have to agree. Thorograph is way too expensive for the average player, so Timeform at $3 a card and $6 Unlimited for a day offer the best value. Use Brisnet at times for a $1 card, but usually do not do as well as when using Timeform.
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#135

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CD

R4 #3 ty boo (12-1)..19 days and a similar drop when he ran 2nd last time he ran here. Also ran 2nd in one of his first 2 races as a 2yo here. try to beat the maker and romans suspicious and certain to be over bet drop downs

R5 #6 explosive (5-1)
R6 #8 derby kitten (5-1)
R7 #5 proud max (10-1)
R8 #8 teller terri (4-1)
R9 pass
R0 #4 fab autumn gal (8-1)

sorry.. wrong thread
Last edited by JBEX; 04-29-14 at 12:50 PM.
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