Kentucky derby thread thoughts and predictions . Keep it going only derby picks

Originally Posted by harthebar

Kentucky Derby Futures as of February 22:
1. Bobby's Kitten 45-1
2. Cairo Prince 10-1
3. California Chrome 60-1
4. Candy Boy 20-1
5. Commissioner 28-1
6. Conquest Titan 35-1
7. Havana 40-1
8. Honor Code 12-1
9. Indianapolis 35-1
10.Intense Holiday 30-1
11. Kristo 50-1
12. Matterhorn 75-1
13. Midnight Hawk 40-1
14. Noble Moon 45-1
15. Rise Up 45-1
16. Samraat 50-1
17. Shared Belief 15-1
18. Strong Mandate 15-1
19. Tapiture 28-1
20. Tonalist 65-1
21. Top Billing 14-1
22. Uncle Sigh 75-1
23. Vicar's in Trouble 20-1

Its amazing how many of those aren't in the field at all. I have futures on Samraat (32-1) and Intense Holiday (30-1). ANd then I have quite a few futures in Pool 3 with Samraat finishing second in Exactas. (5 alive I think)

General A Rod has been training well and loves the surface at Churchill. He is one of the few that is bred to run all day. He will be one of the few that keep running the last 200 yards. 1 1/4 is a different race and breeding is going to show up at the end.... Churchill is not a speedway so some of these so called speed horses are not going to look like speed horse after running a mile on the surface.

Originally Posted by Draynay

General A Rod has been training well and loves the surface at Churchill. He is one of the few that is bred to run all day. He will be one of the few that keep running the last 200 yards. 1 1/4 is a different race and breeding is going to show up at the end.... Churchill is not a speedway so some of these so called speed horses are not going to look like speed horse after running a mile on the surface.

Uh Oh, I agree with something you said!

Originally Posted by Draynay

Wildcat Red who no one has been able to get by except one horse not in the race and who would be favored to win if the race was a mile is going to suddenly spit the bit with the lead at the top of the stretch and let 7 horses go by him

Originally Posted by Draynay

1 1/4 is a different race and breeding is going to show up at the end.... Churchill is not a speedway so some of these so called speed horses are not going to look like speed horse after running a mile on the surface.

And this is why your posts don't hold much weight

Wildcat Red was not on the lead in the Hutcheson. He stalked the pace nicely and ran away at the top of the stretch. Wildcat in his next 2 races took the lead because speed was able to carry at GP. If you think for one minute that Wildcat is going to the front in Kentucky and that is that you would be wrong. I expect him to do what he did in the Hutcheson and stalk the pace. Do I think the distance will be tough for him ? Yes I do... but it will be tough for 17 or 18 of the 20 horses in the race. Even when Wildcat tires so will nearly all remaining in the field. Going 1 1/8th Wildcat is 10 lengths better than 3 out of 4 in the race. There are only a few that will have a chance to catch him in the final 200 yards and the list is very short. General A Rod, Danza, Wicked Strong, and maybe a rail riding Ride on Curlin has an outside shot..... that is it. I am taking General A Rod for the win because he is the only horse in the race that has proven he can stay with him and the added distance should help him.

Maybe you need to watch Wildcat Red in the FOY hold off the Kentucky Derby winner. That race was epic and will go down as one of the great battles of 2014. When was the last time you saw 2 horses in a major stakes race battle like that from start to finish ???

Originally Posted by Draynay

When was the last time you saw 2 horses in a major stakes race battle like that from start to finish ???

Samraat / Uncle Sigh (twice) same as your two from Florida. Only on a much fairer track.

Samraat stalked him in the Withers and sat a 1/2 length back and in mid stretch took over and won by a length. Watch the FOY again. They fought for the lead back and forth all the way from start to finish and it took a picture to tell you who won. Two of the best went at it and they will do the same in Kentucky.

12 horses is a lot different then 20, highly doubt both of them are going to get the lead

I would put Castellano on Danza in a hurry !!!

Originally Posted by Draynay

Wildcat Red was not on the lead in the Hutcheson. He stalked the pace nicely and ran away at the top of the stretch. Wildcat in his next 2 races took the lead because speed was able to carry at GP. If you think for one minute that Wildcat is going to the front in Kentucky and that is that you would be wrong. I expect him to do what he did in the Hutcheson and stalk the pace. Do I think the distance will be tough for him ? Yes I do... but it will be tough for 17 or 18 of the 20 horses in the race. Even when Wildcat tires so will nearly all remaining in the field. Going 1 1/8th Wildcat is 10 lengths better than 3 out of 4 in the race. There are only a few that will have a chance to catch him in the final 200 yards and the list is very short. General A Rod, Danza, Wicked Strong, and maybe a rail riding Ride on Curlin has an outside shot..... that is it. I am taking General A Rod for the win because he is the only horse in the race that has proven he can stay with him and the added distance should help him.

Maybe you need to watch Wildcat Red in the FOY hold off the Kentucky Derby winner. That race was epic and will go down as one of the great battles of 2014. When was the last time you saw 2 horses in a major stakes race battle like that from start to finish ???

You can reinvent yourself as many times as you wish, that's the beauty of the internet but anyone that visits this forum knows who is new at this and who isn't.One post your saying that Wildcat Red will be just as good at 10 panels because he is good at 8 and then a week later nvm it's about breeding but still touting Wildcat Red .Someone like you pops up every year at this time.

Originally Posted by mikemca

Someone like you pops up every year at this time.

Yuup. Although this has to be the first one to call you new.

mikemca.... my point is Wildcat Red is not cheap speed. Leave him off your tickets and let us know how you do .....

Mike-thanks for your thoughts on racing- your reputation speaks for itself. gl to all!!

Im not leaving CC off my tickets either

Originally Posted by BGboothA

Yuup. Although this has to be the first one to call you new.

Originally Posted by blackbox

Mike-thanks for your thoughts on racing- your reputation speaks for itself. gl to all!!

Thx guys...BG you do good work with your site.

Originally Posted by Draynay

mikemca.... my point is Wildcat Red is not cheap speed. Leave him off your tickets and let us know how you do .....

I never said he was.Trinniberg wasn't cheap speed either.Turn either of them back to their wheelhouse and they are very good.It's not one or the other just because they get to a distance that is too far for them.Cheap speed will burn out no matter what distance the race is.