I believe he is telling us the next Derby Winner, CONSTITUTION. Thanks in advance. Now we can just concentrate on the pick 4 & pick 3.
I woiuldn't totally count out Consituttion, if you look at his pedigree, the whole curse of Apollo really shouldn't play a role. I am not sure he will win the thing, but he is on my medium list and will absolutely be on my exotics list.Originally Posted by mrginandtonic
I believe he is telling us the next Derby Winner, CONSTITUTION. Thanks in advance. Now we can just concentrate on the pick 4 & pick 3.
This is my point .....
Nothing is good or bad except by comparison.
Kristo raced in CALIFORNIA 5 times and hit the board 5 times including a 2nd place finish in the Sham and a 3rd place finish in the San Felipe. He had a bullet work and was sent to the Wood where he showed some speed only to spit the bit losing by 20 finishing 7th.
In California he is hitting the board in Stake Races.... he comes East and faces some real speed and real competition and loses by 20 !!! That SHOULD give you some indication of the type of horses CC has been facing and what is going to happen when CC meets some real horses in the Kentucky Derby.
If CC doesn't get a workout at Churchill he will not hit the board in the Derby unless he jumps the rail and runs into it.
Do you really think they will ship him without working out on the CHurchill dirt? I would be surprised
If CC doesn't get a workout at Churchill he will not hit the board in the Derby unless he jumps the rail and runs into it.
Last I read somewhere, they don't plan to work a workout, I think.Do you really think they will ship him without working out on the CHurchill dirt? I would be surprised
Yes the plan worked so wel for kristo !!!
Kristo had a bullet work at SA and then flew out to New York and ran in the Wood. Things went so well for Kristo in the Wood that the trainer for California Chrome thought it would be a good idea to work at SA until Tuesday before the Derby. Why workout at the track your about to run your most important race of your life at? Makes perfect sense and it worked so well for Kristo what could go wrong ?
People don't take into account the different tracks enough in handicapping. The evidence is there with Kristo. Now, that being said, it wouldn't surprise me in CC is better than the disadvantage this gives him, but why give you horse any sort of disadvantage.
KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN
ALL IN BETTINGKENTUCKY DEBY - ODDS TO WIN -
Apr 12KENTUCKY DERBY - ODDS TO WIN
NO REFUNDS ON NON STARTERS
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80502KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGBAYERN+1200
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80503KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGBOBBYS KITTEN+2500
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80504KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGCAIRO PRINCE+1400
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80505KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGCALIFORNIA CHROME+250
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80506KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGCANDY BOY+2500
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80507KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGCHITU+2500
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80508KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGCONSTITUTION+1000
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80509KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGGENERAL A ROD+4000
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80510KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGHOPPERTUNITY+1300
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80511KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGIN TROUBLE+7200
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80512KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGINTENSE HOLIDAY+2500
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80513KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGMIDNIGHT HAWK+4000
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80514KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGRIDE ON CURLIN+4000
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80515KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGRING WEEKEND+5400
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80516KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGSAMRAAT+2700
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80517KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGSOCIAL INCLUSION+5500
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80518KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGSTRONG MANDATE+3700
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80519KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGTAPITURE+1000
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80520KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGUNCLE SIGH+5500
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80521KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGVICARS IN TROUBLE+2800
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80522KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGWE MISS ARTIE+3200
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80523KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGWILDCAT RED+3500
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80524KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGALL OTHER 3 YEAR OLDS+500
Longest shots are never at their true value, they're all clumped in at 25-1 in recent years it seems. Even MTBird should have went off at more than 50-1 imho. All that said I allowed myself to place my first Derby future in years as I've always said that Derby future bets were not worthwhile but that has changed now. Had a few $$ left in one acct and put it on a 33-1 shot. If he makes it to post Im guessing he'll be 20-1ish but should be more.actually past 10 years or so the only horses that really get severly overbet are the longshots..which are horrible value derby day on the parimutual pools....check the exchange prices to see what I mean derby day! its quite eye opening.....
.you get a fair price (not saying an overlay as there is that nasty track takout to contend with , but top choices are not overbet at the Derby past 10 years or so..) .. You have a solid shot at seeing 3-1 on Chrome Derby Day..
If you're hot and heavy on CalChrom think you will get at least 3-1 on him on Derby day.
Is Constitiution this years Revolutionary?
Last edited by cbiscuit; 04-10-14 at 11:29 PM.
I guess if I had to pick 1 it'd be Vicars In Trouble at 28-1.Think Hoppertunity will be right around 12 or 15-1 so no value there but Vicars In Trouble could be around the same so he seems like the best value there.Just about everyone else is too low.KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN
ALL IN BETTINGKENTUCKY DEBY - ODDS TO WIN -
Apr 12KENTUCKY DERBY - ODDS TO WIN
NO REFUNDS ON NON STARTERS
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80502KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGBAYERN+1200
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80503KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGBOBBYS KITTEN+2500
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80504KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGCAIRO PRINCE+1400
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80505KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGCALIFORNIA CHROME+250
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80506KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGCANDY BOY+2500
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80507KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGCHITU+2500
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80508KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGCONSTITUTION+1000
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80509KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGGENERAL A ROD+4000
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80510KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGHOPPERTUNITY+1300
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80511KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGIN TROUBLE+7200
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80512KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGINTENSE HOLIDAY+2500
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80513KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGMIDNIGHT HAWK+4000
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80514KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGRIDE ON CURLIN+4000
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80515KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGRING WEEKEND+5400
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80516KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGSAMRAAT+2700
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80517KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGSOCIAL INCLUSION+5500
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80518KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGSTRONG MANDATE+3700
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80519KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGTAPITURE+1000
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80520KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGUNCLE SIGH+5500
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80521KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGVICARS IN TROUBLE+2800
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80522KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGWE MISS ARTIE+3200
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80523KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGWILDCAT RED+3500
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80524KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGALL OTHER 3 YEAR OLDS+500
mike, i have been hearing a ton of chatter about social inclusion, but he can only run one way fast , to lead, calif. chrome is all by himself at 2 1/2 to -1 i dont get that....
You have to hate money !
To bet on CC in the DerbyThe horse has been racing against Maidens and a few with 1 win in 4 horse fields.....
Going to be tough for me to like him in Kentucky Derby but Danza ran HUGE.Time-wise would have been neck and neck with Will Take Charge a race earlier.
he did dint he, he is lightly raced, will he enter, and do you think bravo will stay on him......to me he looked like he didnt even get into the horse till they made the turn.....and he just took off with ease, ,,like he could have kept going.....if he does run, you will get a good price, people will think it was a fluke, at 40-1 .. the public does....and maybe it was....
Rank Horse Trainer Points Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings 1 California Chrome Art Sherman 150 $782,250 2 Vicar's in Trouble Mike Maker 120 $760,000 3 Dance With Fate Peter Eurton 108 $600,000 4 Wicked Strong Jimmy Jerkens 102 $640,000 5 Samraat Rick Violette Jr. 100 $650,000 6 Danza Todd Pletcher 100 $620,000 7 Constitution Todd Pletcher 100 $600,000 8 Hoppertunity Bob Baffert 95 $576,000 9 Intense Holiday Todd Pletcher 93 $527,500 10 Wildcat Red Jose Garrofalo 90 $665,500 11 We Miss Artie Todd Pletcher 60 $544,000 12 Ride on Curlin Billy Gowan 55 $354,387 13 Chitu Bob Baffert 54 $440,000 14 Tapiture Steve Asmussen 52 $470,378 15 Midnight Hawk Bob Baffert 52 $320,500 16 Ring Weekend H. Graham Motion 50 $260,000 17 General a Rod Mike Maker 40 $240,000 18 Medal Count Dale Romans 40 $226,500 19 Candy Boy John Sadler 30 $380,000 20 Cairo Prince Kiaran McLaughlin 24 $520,000 21 Uncle Sigh Gary Contessa 24 $180,000 22 Vinceremos Todd Pletcher 20 $191,666 23 Harry's Holiday Mike Maker 20 $152,622 24 Commanding Curve Dallas Stewart 20 $140,000 25 Pablo Del Monte Wesley Ward 20 $102,000 26 Bayern Bob Baffert 20 $100,000 27 Social Inclusion Manny Azpurua 20 $100,000
