Dubai Carnival 2014

Originally Posted by mikemca

I like the 15-1 on Wicked Strong in the Wood.I think you can give him a pass on his 2 Florida races because of the configuration of the 1 1/16 mile races at GP.If you are a closer stuck in an outside post at that distance or just a closer in general you have very little chance to run your best.It's a short run to the first turn and then a short stretch using alternate finish line.

So the opposite can be said for Social Inclusion.A speed horse with the rail draw is one of the most advantageous spots you can be in.However there are a lot of sharp minds trying to pay a whole bunch of money to purchase him privately so maybe he is a freak.I just think you have to play against him here going from rookie ball to the big leagues in one jump.Plus with a terrible post for the first time with plenty of speed inside of him and going 1 1/8 .He is very scary though , his pace figs say he could still have more which would put him on Big Brown level relative to this 3 yr old crop.

As for the SA Derby I will be surprised if one of the favorites don't win and most likely finish 1-2.California Chrome,Hoppertunity, and Candy Boy.It feels like the outsiders are just taking a shot trying to grab some purse money.

Great analysis mikemca!!!
Excellent pick.
The funny is when I saw that he won I was trying to remember where I saw that pick?? It was yours.
Great job.
Mark

Originally Posted by JBEX

I'm guessing (beyers) 100-104 for wicked strong and 108-112 for CC

California Chrome got a 107 beyer
Wicked Strong 104


But have to think Wicked Strong's style attracts more public support plus going from the pavement at SA to CD is going to be a big change.

We saw two NY breds get somewhat exposed yesterday and have a feeling we'll see the Cal bred get exposed in Kentucky.

Originally Posted by mikemca

California Chrome got a 107 beyer
Wicked Strong 104


But have to think Wicked Strong's style attracts more public support plus going from the pavement at SA to CD is going to be a big change.

We saw two NY breds get somewhat exposed yesterday and have a feeling we'll see the Cal bred get exposed in Kentucky.

I agree. Wicked Strong's running style being more favorable won't be
lost on the public and enthusiasm for CC will tempered cause of him
being a speed type. This in spite of the two gaudy beyers CC will have
on display entering the race

Originally Posted by mikemca

NP...I missed the ex ....had a big win bet and a 2/11 ex bx

Yeah trying for a home run. Stupid not to take the 9-1 value but thanks again.

Thoughts for today mike?

Don't have any strong opinions

Think Bayern is the most likely winner in Arkansas.Maybe Commissioner being the price if wanting an alternative.

And the Bluegrass is impossible maybe Medal Count or Vinceremos but can do just as well picking numbers.Would say playing against Bobbys Kitten is the way to go and imo the figures for the Spiral Stakes which 4 horses come out of are too high.They all look like contenders because of it.

Mike 2 horses you said to put in stable mail came back to win this was sometime ago just thought I would say thanks , hit them both and keyed on top in ex.

the horses was for usa