^ In looking at the sheet numbers (Thorograph free data this week) looks to be a wide open race. Agree that Don Tito looks like an underlay based on recent form. Private Tale has solid back form, but his last 3 races are sub-par. Your Horse Hannibal is in good shape as his last 3 races seem to be the best of his career. If he moves a forward a bit he has a good shot. Will have to check the tote to see where the value is. GL.
Last edited by Easy-Rider 66; 12-28-13 at 05:52 AM.
the 7 is stratchedOriginally Posted by Slimpickens
Saturday Aqueduct
Race 7- Hannibal Lector #6
A very fascinating 6 furlong race here. All of the major barns in New York are represented, from Jacobson,Rudy Rod, Levine and even a horse that will be running 1st time for the Todd Pletcher barn.
1 Tenango 5/2 ML Favorite- This horse is very consistent and is I guess a deserving favorite. I really wonder what kind of a trip he is going to work out from the rail. Most of his races are at 7 furlongs and further so I expect him to be mid pack and make a run in the stretch.
2 Private Tale 8/1 ML - Here is the trainer change horse going out 1st time for Pletcher. On his best he is a major player here. I suppose the tote board will be the best indicator of if he is ready for his best today.
3 Isthmus 15/1ML- Seems like the likely quickest horse out of the gate. Im going against I just dont think he's good enough but there isnt a ton of early pace so he could be involved in the finish. I just think that theres too many horses that are superior to him on ability.
4 Sensational Slam 20/1ML - He won 2 races back at 39-1 and won his last race as well at 40-1 odds!! Was against cheaper stock though and I just cant see it against this level.
5 Haverhill 6/1 ML - He has a handful of races over his 31 race career that are fast enough to make him a major player. Figures to get a similar trip to that of the rail runner here Tenango and just dont see Haverhill getting the better of Tenango so i have to toss him here.
6 Hannibal Lector 5/1 ML- This is a horse that I have always liked. His last 3 races have been very similar in which he drops back about 4 lengths and makes a strong middle move approaching the top of the stretch and has been filling out trifecta's and superfecta's for the most part.
Why do I think that will be different today? Well, I am seeing a strong 8th out of 102 4 furlong drill on December 21st which Im taking as a sign that they will be more forwardly placed here today. Also the pace shouldnt be quite as strong as several horses are cutting back in distance in this race so Im thinking the pace wont be as hot. I want the rider to be sitting 2nd or 3rd pass the #3 Isthmus whenever he wants to and then have to hold off the closers. I really feel he is a better horse when situated closer to the pace.
Really keying in on his May 12th especially as well as his June 13th win at Belmont. Was never further than 2 lenghts back and won both of those races against some nice horses. One of which Palace who has turned into a 100 beyer fig type horse. If hannibal Lector is handled properly today he should be a major factor for the win. I also like that he has a hungry 5 pound bug rider up today which could really make a difference here.
7 Malachite 12/1 ML- I really dont know what to make of this horse. He faced some good ones as a 2 year old last winter such as Revolutionary and Transparent. Just won clear off of a 9 month layoff for David Donk but he only faced 4 foes that day and they werent very good. Jose Ortiz taking the mount back is surely a plus.
8 Ravalo 5-1 ML- This 18 time winner certainly has the credentials to win this race but he was just claimed away from top trainer David Jacobson, not that Levine is a bad trainer but still a negative move. A horse that likes to come from off the pace and does pick up bug rider Manuel Franco so he could come runing but Im hoping the pace wont be fast enough for this old pro to close into.
9 Don Tito 7/2 ML - I hope that this 7/2 morning line plays out to be true because I really dont care for this runner here. His win 2 back was a perfect trip win against a field at half the claiming price of this race. This guy is a pace presser generally so Im hoping he is caught chasing wide and drops back in the stretch. Only cause for pause is trainer Rudy Rodriguez who is hitting at over 30% so far over the inner dirt.
Win on 6
Exacta Box 1,6
If the 2 is live on the board would use him in exacta's as well.
i think that RAVALO WILL BE TOUGH IF HE DOSENT GET STRATCHED .........HIS LAST RACE WILL HELP HIM OFF VERY FAST FRACTIONS AND A VERY SHARP HORSE, SO THATS MY PICK, ....Saturday Aqueduct
Race 7- Hannibal Lector #6
A very fascinating 6 furlong race here. All of the major barns in New York are represented, from Jacobson,Rudy Rod, Levine and even a horse that will be running 1st time for the Todd Pletcher barn.
1 Tenango 5/2 ML Favorite- This horse is very consistent and is I guess a deserving favorite. I really wonder what kind of a trip he is going to work out from the rail. Most of his races are at 7 furlongs and further so I expect him to be mid pack and make a run in the stretch.
2 Private Tale 8/1 ML - Here is the trainer change horse going out 1st time for Pletcher. On his best he is a major player here. I suppose the tote board will be the best indicator of if he is ready for his best today.
3 Isthmus 15/1ML- Seems like the likely quickest horse out of the gate. Im going against I just dont think he's good enough but there isnt a ton of early pace so he could be involved in the finish. I just think that theres too many horses that are superior to him on ability.
4 Sensational Slam 20/1ML - He won 2 races back at 39-1 and won his last race as well at 40-1 odds!! Was against cheaper stock though and I just cant see it against this level.
5 Haverhill 6/1 ML - He has a handful of races over his 31 race career that are fast enough to make him a major player. Figures to get a similar trip to that of the rail runner here Tenango and just dont see Haverhill getting the better of Tenango so i have to toss him here.
6 Hannibal Lector 5/1 ML- This is a horse that I have always liked. His last 3 races have been very similar in which he drops back about 4 lengths and makes a strong middle move approaching the top of the stretch and has been filling out trifecta's and superfecta's for the most part.
Why do I think that will be different today? Well, I am seeing a strong 8th out of 102 4 furlong drill on December 21st which Im taking as a sign that they will be more forwardly placed here today. Also the pace shouldnt be quite as strong as several horses are cutting back in distance in this race so Im thinking the pace wont be as hot. I want the rider to be sitting 2nd or 3rd pass the #3 Isthmus whenever he wants to and then have to hold off the closers. I really feel he is a better horse when situated closer to the pace.
Really keying in on his May 12th especially as well as his June 13th win at Belmont. Was never further than 2 lenghts back and won both of those races against some nice horses. One of which Palace who has turned into a 100 beyer fig type horse. If hannibal Lector is handled properly today he should be a major factor for the win. I also like that he has a hungry 5 pound bug rider up today which could really make a difference here.
7 Malachite 12/1 ML- I really dont know what to make of this horse. He faced some good ones as a 2 year old last winter such as Revolutionary and Transparent. Just won clear off of a 9 month layoff for David Donk but he only faced 4 foes that day and they werent very good. Jose Ortiz taking the mount back is surely a plus.
8 Ravalo 5-1 ML- This 18 time winner certainly has the credentials to win this race but he was just claimed away from top trainer David Jacobson, not that Levine is a bad trainer but still a negative move. A horse that likes to come from off the pace and does pick up bug rider Manuel Franco so he could come runing but Im hoping the pace wont be fast enough for this old pro to close into.
9 Don Tito 7/2 ML - I hope that this 7/2 morning line plays out to be true because I really dont care for this runner here. His win 2 back was a perfect trip win against a field at half the claiming price of this race. This guy is a pace presser generally so Im hoping he is caught chasing wide and drops back in the stretch. Only cause for pause is trainer Rudy Rodriguez who is hitting at over 30% so far over the inner dirt.
Win on 6
Exacta Box 1,6
If the 2 is live on the board would use him in exacta's as well.
Good luck hart. I was glad to see the 7 scratch a likely pace presence. Pace should be soft for this caliber of horses. You think Ravalo will be more forwardly placed today? He used to have speed but as he has gotten older he has turned into an off the pace type.
If you watch the replay of his last race ,dads cap just took off ,, set very quick pace, he necver had a chance from the start, and coming off a layoff.....and i dont know what you were looking at, but ravalo was stratched his 3 races before that ...i dont know why, but i think he needed that race , but its horse racing and he has beating these guys before..good luck hart. I was glad to see the 7 scratch a likely pace presence. Pace should be soft for this caliber of horses. You think ravalo will be more forwardly placed today? He used to have speed but as he has gotten older he has turned into an off the pace type.
Where was the speed horse? Last early. Hardly the trip I was hoping for.
is was a weird race,,,
Gulfstream Saturday 1/4
Race 5 Dreamingoflawrence #7
Dont usually get to exited about 1st time starters but this one looks live and this field looks prime for a 1ster. I guess his main competition is the ML favorite #6 Coro Coro. He has had his chances though.The one Im most concerned about is the rail horse Concord Cat who was bet down to 2-1 in his debut only to never lift a hoof and finsih dead last.
Dreamingoflawrence has already been gelded so he should have his mind on racing and comes from a top outfit concerning young horses. I really like the outside post draw here.
Gonna try and get live to him in a pick 4 starting in race 2
Race 2-6,7,8
Race 3- ALL
Race 4- 1,7
Race 5-7
Pick 4 thoughts.
In the 2nd gonna go with the 3 favorites on the outside. If the 1 or 4 who are coming off long layoffs take significant money I would use them as well.
in race 3 i thought the favorite on the rail was vulnerable and these are young horses eligible to improve so I just bought the race. Only 6 horses.
In the 4th race I just have a real hard time getting past the 2 Tampa shippers.
18 dollar ticket on a 50 cent base.
Race 7 Grenoble #3 BEST BET
A class play here. This horse has been facing better horses in the northeast and is taking a big drop in class here. Had legit excuses 2 last 2 races. 2 back was wide on a track with a strong rail.The last race at laurel never even came close to sniffing the rail. Was just way to wide in a big feild.
I know the 2 ML choices quite well as they have done the majority of there running in NY. The #9 Love That Kelly finally found the right field and broke her maiden with an absolute dream trip last race. The ML choice #8 Sands of Humor did no real running last race while saving ground the whole way. Her races in NY leave little to be desired.
Grenoble is far from a superstar but I think she may have found the right field today.
Win bet on 2 and will use exacta's with the foreign import Legenda Aurea and layoff returning Starship Pegasus.
2
4
1
Late Pick 4
Race 8- ALL
Race 9- 1,7,12
Race 10- 2
Race 11- 5,8
Quick thoughts. I guess the Pletcher duo will dominate the betting in the 8th but I thought some of the others appeared live. Decided to buy the race as I am light in the remaining legs.
In the 9th should be a quick pace with Silverette stretching out among other pace types so I went with 3 off the pace types and feel good about getting through this leg. Always glad to watch one of my favorite horses Deanaalen'skitten run the #7 here. Has only ben off the board in 2 of 20 races. This is a tougher spot than he is used to though.
In the 10th gonna single Trail Blaze as the 2nd choice on the ML. Lots to like here comes out of a live race. The 2nd through 5th placed runners havent been worse than 2nd in there next race with 2 winners. I just dont trust Corfu who really hasnt improved since his maiden win at Saratoga last July. Hoping Trail Blaze is the trip horse here and probably the best horse as well.
In the 11th just chalked it out with the Pletcher dropdown and the well bread 1st time starter.
30 dollar ticket on a 50 cent base.
Good Luck Today!!
Aqueduct Saturday 1/4
Race 1- Pegasus Baba #3
2nd time starter, stretching out in distance. 1st race was pretty green and never seemed to get comfortable. Puts the blinkers on here and against this hungry field deserves a big look. Should be forwardly placed here. The #1 Knockout Beauty also interests me as she flashed speed in her initial start. A race that ended up falling apart late. Even the #7 Vindication Spot deserves a look. Comes in 2nd off of a layoff and is back in with fillies here today.
Win on 3
Race 4. If you refer to the 1st post in this thread I picked Finders Key and she dissapointed in a big way. Really just interested in seeing how she does here in a similar spot but a race filled with front running types. Sometimes in a race filled with so much pace the horse that is driven to get inside position is tough to beat as the others are put into chase mode. She must avoid a serious duel at all cost.
Will make a small play on her here
Win on 2
Race 9- Guyana Princess #11
Comes in 1st of the claim for trainer Michelle Nevin. She does well with new claims. Im glad someone finally reached in and claimed this gal from low percentage trainer Dennis Lalman. Ive always thought Princess had some ability now she has a solid trainer and upgrade in rider. Appears all systems go.
Good Luck!!
Good Write-ups Slim. Will take your opinions into consideration today.
Thanks Slim! I'll start checking more. I can only come with the occassional pick by eye sight and love to watch/play so picks much appreciated.
Gonna try a couple over the next few days that all ran in the 5th race at Aqueduct on January 10th. There was an extremely stong gold rail this day and these 3 runners were all wide that day. The 4th place finisher in this race came back to improve her beyer 22 points whiling winning at nearly 8-1. The last place finisher came back to improve 13 points and finish 2nd at 7-1.
Thursday 1/23 Aqueduct
Race 3 Matching Skies
Wont be much of a price in this spot but seems the primary danger to the speedy Insolvent. Matching Skies was on the hard outside chase on Jan 10th. Her race 2 back would likely make her a winner and Insolvent is a bit dressed up as she beat a field pretty weak for the level last race.
Friday 1/24 Aqueduct
Race 7 Run a Dubb Dubb
Was the 5th place finisher in the Jan 10th race. Had post 9 that day and was wide the entire race. Actually ran well I thought to be 5th considering her trip. I really think she should sit a good trip today. I am hoping the 2 dead send speeds hook up in a duel Dixie Sparkle and Julesco. Run a Dubb Dubb should be sitting 3rd or 4th hopefully the rider can manage to save alittle bit of ground from another wide draw. Should get the jump on the 2 ML favorites Guyana Princess who is the horse to beat off the Michelle Nevin claim as well as SusAnnmaries Gold whom should be launching from the back of the pack.
Saturday 1/25 Aqueduct
Race 7 Prize Taker
If you like can refer back to post 7 in this thread where I liked this horse 2 back. Was one of the few bright spots of this thread thus far. Anyway she too comes out of the Jan 10th race where she finished 6th. She broke slow was wide never really did much but did finish up strongly. I am glad the connections are stretching her back out here as I think she is crying out for more distance. She is a very large and long striding 4 year old filly.
All 3 of these were against the bias let see how they do. Probably looking forward to Prize Taker the most not sure what price she will be ML not out yet for Saturday. Runn A Dubb Dubb will be a big price. Matching Skies wont be much of a price as there are really only 2, maybe 2.5 horses that can win. If she is twice the price of Insolvent I will bet her to win.
I love the horses and enjoyed all your write ups! I look forward to the next few thanks Keep it up if you can.Thanks. I will try to keep it going if theres any interest in it.
Racing was cancelled for Friday at the Big A and the race with Runn a Dubb Dubb has been re written for Monday's race card. 2nd race Horse #6
Even looking forward to Prize Taker in Saturday's 7th race more now that another horse that was against the bias has come back to win and improve his beyer 22 points which was Matching Sky whom returned a generous 4-1 on Thursday.
Saturday 1/25
Race 5 Merryland Moon
Last race she made a mess of the start and got shuffled back to last. Made a strong sustained outside middle move and nearly got up for 3rd. IMO she was the 2nd best horse out of that race by a mile. She had blinkers on last race so hoping she will be able to take advantage of them here as she should be more forwardly placed and get the jump on the 1st and 2nd choice on the ML Blossom's Trail and Just do it Please. Not much else to be afraid of at all in here. Here is a link to the replay of the race. Be sure to check out the head on view as well as you can see what happens at the start better.. Horse 7 that day... (Copy and paste)
Or can click the link from post 7 of this thread to take you to the replay page. The replay is from January 4th race 9.
http://www.nyra.com/aqueduct/videos/race-replay/AQD/2014/20140104/9/pan/
Sunday 1/26 Aqueduct
Race 5 Go Olivia Go
Last race she was given a no chance wide run under CC Lopez. Was 3 to 4 wide the entire trip finishing 4th. The winner this day sat a dream trip covered in behind horses. The favorite this day also sat a ground saving trip stalking in behind the pace setters and finished 3rd. Twillerbee whom is the ML favorite in todays's race was 2 wide on the pace the whole way and finished 2nd. Was a solid effortt but she really had a super trip and I dont expect her to repeat it here. If youd like to see a replay of the last race on the replay page I posted above go to January 18th 9th race. Twillerbee was horse 7 and Go Olivia Go horse 8 that day.
I like the rider change to a bug getting the weight break. The trip I am hoping for is for her to sit right behind Twillerbee and take over in the stretch.
So to recap in order here is what Ive got at Aqueduct over the next few days.
Saturday Race 5- Merryland Moon
Saturday Race 7- Prize Taker
Sunday Race 5- Go Olivia Go
Monday Race 2- Runn A Dubb Dubb
Last edited by Slimpickens; 01-24-14 at 05:51 PM. Reason: Add
Merryland Moon for some reason scratched out of the 5th, and after seeing it run I gotta wonder why? Such an easy spot. The rail also appears to be golden again today.
