Slimpickens Picks of the Day
Wednesday Aqueduct
Race 1- Finders Key #8
Puts the blinkers on should play out to be the lone speed of the race. Just sick and tired of horses like House on Toilsome and Score Boyera who run every few days, pick up checks but never get there picture taken. Score Boyera in particular just had an inexcusable loss as a 9/5 shot just a few days ago.
This is her 2nd race off of a 4 month layoff. In that comeback race she drew the rail. The trainer took the blinkers off for that race. She broke just a step slow the rider then asks for speed to contend for the lead. Only trouble is theres are 2 other riders doing the same thing so a serious speed duel develops. The rider then takes back after using up all that energy and sits 3rd. Then somehow entering the turn she had gotten herself to last. I didnt care for the ride and am glad to see a new rider up today. Its also very likely that she just needed the race.
Her 2 wins over her career have both come 2nd off the layoff same situation as today.
Win 8
Race 7- Swift Taylor #9
A 7th race in which on paper only 4 horses have a chance to win those being # 2Casual Elegance, #7 Cry Holy,#10 Darnley Bay and the horse I like.
The ML favorite Cry Holy has raced in 2 sprints since coming back off of an 11 month layoff. She has beaten 1 total horse so far to the wire. I guess the thinking on her is she's stretching out, putting the blinkers on and has top gate/Speed rider CC Lopez up so they appear to be the speed of the race. If you think she wires the field then good luck with that.
Darnley Bay has been facing very weak fields and I just dont like her but she can win based on the minimal competition here.
Casual Elegance I feel is going to play out to be the "Wise Guy" horse in here. She has been running decent numbers but those races have been mostly on the turf. Never like taking horses off of turf form especially at a short price. She does have one dirt race showing which was a scheduled turf race in which she earned a 67 beyer speed figure which would likely win this. But that race was a field filled with turf horses and I really thought she just sucked up for 2nd as others were tiring badly. With all that being said she is IMO the 2nd likeliest winner.
If your looking at the pp's you will get what Im about to say about Swift Taylor. She broke her maiden last March 1st right here over the inner dirt surface. Since that race she has been for the most part entered in extremely tough spots. Her next 2 races she's up the track routing on the turf. Ok she's not a turf horse.
Next race on June 20th is the race Im keying in on as this race if ran today would crush this field. She had a perfect trip this day and finsihed 3rd against real horses that typically run byers in the mid 70's.
The next 3 races are tough to look at as she only finished in front of 2 horses over that 3 race stretch. 3 back against a better field than she's facing today she encountered a sloppy track, 2 back was wide throughout and against much better in a small stake at Finger Lakes. Last race flashed speed before being eased.
So with all that being said if she runs one of the races she ran in her last 3 races she will be no where here. Theres no denying that.
I like that jockey Junior Alvarado who was the rider when she eased about 2.5 months ago rides back today. I like that her trainer has finally entered her in a race that she fits in. I like the spacing of her public workouts, has been training every week since the begining of November. Like this especially because she was eased last race. With the real lack of competition in this spot if she can run at all anymore she becomes a major contender, and according to the ML she will be the highest price of the 4 that can win.
Win on 9
Last edited by Slimpickens; 12-18-13 at 12:03 AM. Reason: Spelling
Originally Posted by Easy-Rider 66
