added indy 7
keeneland got over an inch of rain between 3-9am but clearing up after that..still probably going to be muddy there today..possibly you'll get through the first 3 at belmont dry but then the heavy rain starts
keeneland
R1 #1 spearette (8-1)
got through clm5k n1y - n3y conditions at beltera park and I feel ran respectable vs starter allowance company there.. clm $7500 might be a good fit here class-wise..always the small track prejudice when shipping to keeneland
R3 #2 world riot (8-1)
trainer has uncaany numbers in multiple pattern categories over very large samples..one of them is "blinkers back on" and she ran a poor race with them off for the first time.. good spot for this one and slop ok
R4 #5 dawn's early light (3-1)
$285k 2yo purchase dropping to mdn $30k in his 3rd career start with a trainer who just burns money with this move over a large sample..so why pick him?? what he did in his last race at churchill vs msw breaking from the 11 post and contesting the pace before giving it up badly late.. translated to this field might be a big win
R5 #3 sweet sneak (15-1)
R5 #6 party goer (12-1)
R7 #2 patriot drive (8-1)
R8 #5 takechargrmatriarch (8-5
belmont
R1 #1 fusi (2-1)
encouraged by the quick turnaround (6 days) and blinkers on (trainer excels)...first time on dirt this low in brief career where he's shown talent on the grass multiple times.. early speed and inside posts fare well here
R3 #2 sandy kitten (9-5) if stays on turf
R3 #1a quaabil (2-1) if off turf
crappy race and these 2 will be low odds
Last edited by JBEX; 10-16-19 at 12:39 PM.
finished kee
keeneland.. ( both 1 and 4 must be on the turf)
R1 #7 achievable (12-1)
R4 #6 handy (15-1)
expensive relative to the pedigree
capable under the radar turf jock whose 2 for 3 with trainer
R4 #8 free spender (20-1)
think got a little fitness and education at oddball track kentucky downs in the debut.. trainer has nice numbers 2nd career grass race.. this one expensive but not what I'd consider relative to the pedigree (borderline)
R5 pass
R7 #8 blended citizen (15-1)
i'm always willing to forgive a bad race at kentucky downs (last).. the prior race in a grade 2 @ del mar going 1 3/8 on the turf was halfway decent especially factoring in (at least in his last 10 races) that he hadn't done a turf marathon before.. has back class as a 3yo dirt horse.. doug o'neil's only other start at the meet was a winner
R8 #7 kitty's promise (15-1)
a 2yo filly who cost $1k at auction makes her fifth career start.. of course with an expensive purchase like that you don't want to risk losing her lol.. all msw..kee debut.. R 2 and 3 @ elp and last at kd.. avg odds 57-1 including 102-1 last out.. oh yeah trainer 0-15 on the year.. while last race placing absolutely ridiculous, starts 2 and 3 back are a good fit vs these mcl $30k.. gets in light with a 7lb bug
Last edited by JBEX; 10-17-19 at 01:40 PM.
finished keeneland
Originally Posted by JBEX
keeneland.. ( both 1 and 4 must be on the turf)
R1 #7 achievable (12-1)
R4 #6 handy (15-1)
expensive relative to the pedigree
capable under the radar turf jock whose 2 for 3 with trainer
R4 #8 free spender (20-1)
think got a little fitness and education at oddball track kentucky downs in the debut.. trainer has nice numbers 2nd career grass race.. this one expensive but not what I'd consider relative to the pedigree (borderline)
R5 pass
R7 #8 blended citizen (15-1)
i'm always willing to forgive a bad race at kentucky downs (last).. the prior race in a grade 2 @ del mar going 1 3/8 on the turf was halfway decent especially factoring in (at least in his last 10 races) that he hadn't done a turf marathon before.. has back class as a 3yo dirt horse.. doug o'neil's only other start at the meet was a winner
R8 #7 kitty's promise (15-1)
a 2yo filly who cost $1k at auction makes her fifth career start.. of course with an expensive purchase like that you don't want to risk losing her lol.. all msw..kee debut.. R 2 and 3 @ elp and last at kd.. avg odds 57-1 including 102-1 last out.. oh yeah trainer 0-15 on the year.. while last race placing absolutely ridiculous, starts 2 and 3 back are a good fit vs these mcl $30k.. gets in light with a 7lb bug
last 2 races listed as R7 R8 should be R8 R9...sorry
keeneland
R2 #6 new day dawning (8-1)
R3 #8 instigated (4-1)
R4 #9 davidic line (2-1)
R5 #6 chelsea cloisters (8-1)
R6 #3 bayerness (8-1)
R8 #9 high regard (8-1)
R10 #1 come on venezuela (6-1)
intrigued jose ortiz would jump aboard this one
Last edited by JBEX; 10-18-19 at 01:44 PM.
Good luck today?
Look at ny?
I looked at the first half of the card and nothing grabbed me..may peek at the later races
if i'm looking at a race and feel even if I hit ,it's not a situation I have an edge on than it should be a pass..that however is often a grey area decision in itself
finished keeneland
laurel (noon post, belmont 12:20 and kee 1:05)
R1 #3 capucine (12-1) be much lower
R4 #9 no more talk (12-1)
belmont
R1 #1 steelersfanforlife (15-1)
R2 #2 naked avenger (1-1)
R3 #2 graphite dutchess (15-1)
R4 #8 cross border (5-1)
R6 #1 build to suit (2-1)
keeneland
R2 #1 fridaynitestar (4-1)
R3 #2 takechargeangel (2-1)
R4 #1 better tapit (9-2)
R5 #1 chitto (5-1)
R6 #2 echo alpha six (10-1)
R7 #3 hansens mischief (5-1)
R9 #2 bell's the one (12-1)
R10 #4 fooch (9-2)
Last edited by JBEX; 10-19-19 at 01:04 PM.
did belmont through 6.. going to look at keeneland and go back to laurel and belmont after
Not sure I understand what you mean by that?if i'm looking at a race and feel even if I hit ,it's not a situation I have an edge on than it should be a pass..that however is often a grey area decision in itself
