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#9785

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Del Mar



Race 3
WOW! A lot of overseas shippers in here for a non bc race and throughout the weekend. Eyeing 2 horses making first start in states in 6-Treasuring 15-1 for S Callaghan who does well getting horses and bringing them to the states for the first time and 5-Sound And Silence 8-1 for Godolphin/Appleby. Then 3-Count Alexander 6-1 of the US horses.

Race 4
I know I've been on a break for a long time but what happened that now the best chances T Pletcher and Johnny V have are a single 20-1 shot in both the 2 year old juveniles? He usually has 2 or 3 in both juvy races and vying for odds on. 10-Maya Malibu 20-1 could pop first time at 2 turns off a progressive pattern in 3 races to start career. Bred for it and 1/2 to some decent horses. Motion does well putting blinkers on too. 3-Princess Warrior 12-1 got a 5w-6w trip in the 2 turn G1 Alcibiades as the 3-2 fave at KEE. Earned that backing off an impressive debut vs a good maiden field. If you make the case that the KEE race can be tossed why is she 12-1 while the perfect trip winner is 9-2 this race and prolly goes off shorter.

Race 5
Have to split up the 2 faves 3-Lady Aurelia and 6-Marsha somehow if payout is going to be appealing at all. They are by far the fastest on figs and class . If I had to pick against them I'd try 12-Pure Sensation 10-1 . Is capable of putting up a race to challenge the top 2 if they don't run their best.

Race 6
3-Curlin's Approval 20-1 is good enough to win this race if he runs his 3rd race back. Took a short break after that big effort then had trouble comeback race and just a tightener leading into this. Not sure who the trainer is but you don't often see a 20-1 shot with the fastest race. Won't argue with anyone using Unique Bella but I just think the risk/reward is worth it to try and beat her in such a competitive field. I'll use 12-Skye Diamonds 5-1 and 10-Highway Star 15-1. Both have been winning a lot on their respective coasts in the older division of 1 turn races. Something can be said for 6-Proper Discretion 30-1 too. Huge price has to be doing very well for 1st time trainer to think she belongs in this field.

Race 7
11-Nezwaah 20-1

Race 8
Nothing clever 2-7-8-10 in some order or maybe throwing in Ransom The Moon 12-1 to replace one of them. Have a feeling Takaful is going to get hammered at windows so maybe him being never adjusted to socal. Has done all racing and training in NY so would be 2-8-9-10

Race 9
8-Suedois 6-1 - Keep hearing how Euros never repeat their first US race when trying a 2nd. What if he does? Will get a hot pace and most of the logical horses want to be on or near it. Ribchester and World Approval are the ones among those I'd want.

Race 10
Bolt D'Oro probably wins. Single in horizontals playing 12-Hollywood Star 15-1 as a stab with bolt.

Race 11
All Euro 1-3-4 for me.

Race 12
Obviously Arrogate & Gun Runner. Throw in bomb Gunnevera
#9789

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Ok trying to get back on track here at Woodbine. Seconditis is killing me there the last 2 weeks.

Woodbine:

Race 2- #3 Burnin Money(9/2): I am not sure how he beats the ML fave in this and he has a past breaking problem but I think he has a chance to win this with a decent trip. Oddly enough I somewhat like the #5(9/1) also so will use both in the pic3s.

Race 4- #8 Trisun(10/1): This horse rarely wins so I will use in a pic3 and maybe some WP if it has a nice price. There is a ton of early speed in this race and some of the better horses have been known to cave and if this happens Trisun will be flying down the stretch. The question of course is will he be too far back.

Race 5- #6 Dubious Claim(5/1): A new fave against some of these same horses the last few races raced well until he broke in his last race(multiple times). If he stays flat then he will be absolutely flying down the lane and the question like Trisun is will he be in contention around the final turn or too far back(or not try due to his last break). With a decent price I am going for it because he can easily win this race.

Race 7- #9 Continual Hanover(5/1): I hate the outside post here and he has let me down a few too many times in his last few races but wow this is a huge drop in class. He always seems to get first over also so I will be less than thrilled if he does it again but there are not excuses now. I have a bad feeling he will be less than 5/1 though.

Race 9- #10 Think on It(9/1): This is a tough race since many of the horses in here have raced against each other and have traded wins and other places. I also have Lisvinnie in here who I tend to play. The question is why would I abandon that to play a horse from the absolute worst 10 hole and a longshot to boot. Two answers. First he is taking a pretty big drop in class and secondly the driver of Lisvinnie got off that ML fave to get on this horse. I have seen this horse be at a longshot ML status before only to get bet down and crush the field so watch the play on this horse. One think that bothers me is the 8 and 9 are front end horses and if he leaves he may be in a big battle from the start and if he does not leave he will be coming from dead last with the stone cold closer Lisvinnie in front of him. Will be interesting to watch.

Race 10- #6 Idole Duharas(7/2): His times are not even remotely close to the times of the ML fave #1 horse and his last was a first over less than stellar drive but the ML fave is also 0 for 31 this year. Vanderkemp trains the horse and elected to drive and when he does this it usually means he thinks he can win
#9791

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I see I am having my usual luck.

1 )Burnin Money: 2nd at 11/1

2) Trisun: 3rd from way back at 9/1

3) Dubious Claim: Broke stride again. Unreal close from 20 back to get within 3-4 lengths. Would have won easy.

4) Continual Hanover: Dead last as the fave. Had to whip the horse to even keep up with the gate and parked the mile near last. Something is way way way off with this horse.

6) Think on It: Winner at cough gag gag 4/5. From 9/1 ML to 4/5. If you need me I will be banging my head repeatedly on my desk.

7) Idole Duharas: Second from a moron drive. Leaves and even though there was a rather large 2 hole gap he just parks him the first quarter, settles in 4th, and gets shuffled to near last. Gets out and flies down the stretch to get 2nd. Idiots drives are killing me now.
Last edited by picantel; 11-06-17 at 09:44 PM.
#9792

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Quote Originally Posted by picantel View Post
Btw if anyone is bored watch Northlands Race 3 on 7/28/17 and the #3 Slot Player in that race(heavy fave). I have seen horses blow the turn but this horse takes it to another level. I only saw it because at Turf Paradise he just went off at 2/1 as a gift and won(barely).
wont let me watch it, i get it, im always third ............at least you get exacta....keep posting enjoy harness
#9793

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More bad luck tonight. Chased the horse called Our Miss Maggie again at 13/1. I needed her in the pic4 also. The gate opens and she stands still for a few seconds and comes out about 4-5 lengths back. Around the final turn here she comes about 7 wide and flies home to get 3rd just a length back. My picks are not the ones killing me lately but the drives sure are.
#9794

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Quote Originally Posted by picantel View Post
More bad luck tonight. Chased the horse called Our Miss Maggie again at 13/1. I needed her in the pic4 also. The gate opens and she stands still for a few seconds and comes out about 4-5 lengths back. Around the final turn here she comes about 7 wide and flies home to get 3rd just a length back. My picks are not the ones killing me lately but the drives sure are.
Sounds like a good follow