Saturday First Post 11:35 AM EST
Belmont
Race 1
8-Wabbajack 8-1 - Ran a race that would probably win this breaking his maiden in almost an identical situation last year.Off a few month break ,moving from Gulfstream to Belmont ,switching from Rosario to Maragh, and it was at this distance.
1-Away Game 12-1 - Might be the biggest overlay in the field at his ML.Ran a race that would be competitive 2 starts back and then tried turf to no avail.Violette is excellent turf to dirt.
7-Forever Thing 7-2 - Is the wild card off such a long break but Pletcher always seems too have them ready in spots like this on big race days.
Race 2
3-Effinex 20-1 - Goes for bad connections and a so so jock or he would be 4 or 5-1 instead of 20-1.If you block out the trainer this guy is a huge overlay.
8-Pass The Coffee 12-1 - Gets a big switch from Arroyo to Cornelio after original jock gave him no chance to win last race by diving to the inside instead of getting a clear run outside.Finished that race best of all once clear and nothing between him and Life In Shambles who is 4-1.
5-Misconnect 4-1 - Another Pletcher and this one trying a route for the first time.However the 1 1/16 races at Belmont are only 1 turn so it is just a really long sprint.That is the reason I am against Kid Cruz here as the favorite.He looks like a 2 turn horse to me.
Race 3(Brooklyn)
1-Eriugena 10-1 - After 11 OK runs on turf/synth this one really turned into a race horse when put on dirt 2 starts back.
4-Cat Burgler 5-2 - This marathon is just as much a guessing game as the Belmont Stakes with only 1 of these horses having run this distance on dirt in Ever Rider and he seems slow.This one is fastest it's just a matter of if he can go this far.
3-Micromanage 7-2 - Really tossing between him and
8-Norumbega 6-1 as both seem about equal.Will see how the race gets bet but will go with Micro preliminary.
Race 4(Jaipur)
9-Positive Side 8-1 - Has been closing fast at up to a furlong shorter than this the last 3 races.Getting lasix again for the first time since the middle of 2012 which was 14 starts ago.Nakatani and Forster haven't teamed up in a while but they are 7 for 18 together.
6-Undrafted 5-1 - Was also closing fast with Positive Side last race at 5f and could be real good at 6f.
5-Anyriderill Do 20-1 - Along the same lines as the 9 and 6 should appreciate step up to 6f but this guy was going best of all late in his 5f race.
8-Ben's Cat 5-2 and
10-Marchman 3-1 look formidable but a case can be made against.Ben's Cat hasn't seen a field like this in a while and Marchman has gotten used to going all out for 5 or 5 1/2 furlongs.Maybe he hits a wall going 6f.
Either 9,8,10 or 9,6,5 or 9/5,6,8,10
Race 5(Woody Stephens)
1-Bayern 5-1 - With all the hype on Social Inclusion this race has good prices everywhere.Baffert is arguably the best trainer there is at turning horses back from a route to a sprint.He also has great results blinkers on .
3-Havana 6-1 - Was one of the best 2 year olds last year and now goes 2nd off a long break.
Then you have a bunch of bombs like
7-Tonito M. 20-1 , 13-Pure Sensation 30-1 , 8-Favorite Tale 12-1 , and
12-Top Fortitude 20-1.
Race 6(Acorn)
8-My Miss Sophia 6-5 - It would be pretty unreal if she gave Pletcher his 5th win on the card through the first 6 races but he really is stacked and this one is his most likely winner.Would be superstar status if not for Untapable.
6-Tiz So Sweet 20-1 - Is just about as fast as anyone minus MMS and Mott is very good 2nd time lasix.Just looking for new shooters as MMS has already dominated the obvious alternatives Sweet Reason and Unbridled Forever.
9-Artemis Agrotera 5-1 - Was looking at this one as a possible chance to beat the favorite before the MLs came out and thought I was going to get a big price.As the 2nd choice it's not really worth it but she has to be doing phenominal for Hushion to enter in this race off 217 day break.
2-House Rules 12-1 - Steadily improving filly might get the same bumb for Jerkens that Wicked Strong did getting back home after a trip to Florida for the winter.
Race 7(Ogden Phipps)
A horrible betting race as I will be stunned if
1-Closed Hatches, 6-Princess Of Sylmar , or
5-Beholder don't win and probably fill out the exacta too.I would put them
6-1-5 in order of preference giving Pletcher his 6th good shot in 7 races.
Race 8(Just A Game)
6-Stephanie's Kitten 4-1 - Take the price and run if you can get the ML.She is by far the best horse in here off last years form.Is being disrespected because of her last race where she had no where to run in the stretch.
3-Dame Marie 20-1 - Had to swing wide while the winner Coffee Clique got a rail trip under Castellano last out.Despite being wide she still made the lead in the stretch making her move into the teeth of some very fast internal fractions.If I make a win bet she is it.
5-Coffee Clique 10-1 - Picking her mainly because I don't like the 2 favorites.Dame Marie had a much tougher time last race.
2-Strathnaver 20-1 - Can go 4 deep trying to beat 2 faves.Worth a look cutting back to her shortest distance in a very long time.
Race 9(Met Mile)
1-Palace Malice 8-5 - His last race makes him very tough in here.IMO he is the best horse in the country right now.If he gets beat it's likely to be because of a rough trip from the rail.Yet another in an amazing line up for Pletcher on the card.
4-Goldencents 10-1 - A lot of speed in the race so will have to have some luck pacewise.
13-Shakin' It Up 6-1 - He ran argiably the best race of anyone on Kentucky Derby Day andis one of very few in here fast enough on his best to push the fave.
3-Scarly Charly 50-1 - Again I am a sucker for Hushion horses and no way this one only has a 50-1 chance.Hushion is excellent with all applicable angles and as for the horse he has faced some decent competition in California before switching barns before this race.
10-Clearly Now 10-1 - Not recommending going 5 deep unless keying the fave in straight exotics but I just know the one time I toss this horse he is going to beat me.Think I have been on him for just about every one of his dirt races.
Race 10(Manhattan)
8-Real Solution 5-1 - Last time he ran at this distance he won the Arlington Million via DQ over a very good foreign invader in The Apache.It was also 3rd from a layoff which is the same today.
4-Grandeur 5-1 - Also a deep closer in a pretty paceless race but not sure Five Iron wants to go this far and he might just muddle the pace enough to wear out Imagining.
2-Hey Leroy 12-1 and
9-Kaigun 15-1 get no respect after running just as good as anyone their last few turf races.
3-Rookie Sensation 12-1 - Would need him to drift up in price a little but he caught my eye originally when looking at the pps first glance because of his pace figs.Not sure how to play this yet maybe just pick 4 of them and box of key the 8,4 on top.
Race 11(Belmont Stakes)
1-Medal Count 20-1 - Don't think we've seen how good he is yet after 2 eventful trips in the Derby and Bluegrass.He will stay 1 1/2 miles and has a perfect grinding style clicking off :24s.Drosselmeyeresque.
9-Wicked Strong 6-1 - Have literally been on this horse since his very first start and would be again if not for the price discrepancy between him and Medal Count.All my tickets will have 1,9/ABCD though.He is a beast and if not for the 20 draw followed by a terrible trip would have made Chrome look mortal at the least.
2-California Chrome 3-5 - Frankly I don't give a shyt if he wins the Triple Crown and even worse that would mean I lose money.I am a figures guy and he isn't even in the same zipcode as Smarty Jones and Big Brown let alone the horses who did complete the Triple Crown.I also don't think it will do anything for the popularity of the game.As long as the stooges who run the sport state by state are in charge the downward spiral will continue.They need to have complete transparency by disclosing all vet records, adopt a testing protocal to eliminate move up drugs, reduce take out , provide free pps , have a universal governing body , etc...etc...
4-Commanding Curve 15-1 - Back to the horses and hard to envision this one not running late but probably too late.
Also
Matuszak 30-1 and
Commisioner 20-1 are the others for clunk up 3rd or 4th.Ride On Curlin and General A Rod figure but willing to stand against them trying their 3rd race in 5 weeks.Think Tonalist is a big underlay and will let him beat me too.
1,9/2,4,6,8
Race 12
3-Inchcape 12-1 - Fits as good as anyone in a very tough race to handicap.He has been facing some tough horses last few starts and finishing just behind a couple that show up in graded stakes.
11-Shining Copper 8-1 - Has been off a while and was pretty good when he left so he could demolish this field if he improved during his time away.
4-North Star Boy 10-1 - Seems like he doesn't like to win but always runs Ok enough to hit the board since coming to America.
2-Arctic North 10-1 - Also coming from a pretty long layoff and could be tough if he improved.I can't really separate these top 4 and could flip flop any of them.
8-Developer 20-1 - Might just go 4 deep but if I go 5 with a key I'll throw this one in.His synthetic form could win this and being by Dynaformer I have to think his one bad turf race can be forgiven.
Race 13
8-Pazolini 3-1 - McLaughlin not represented that much on the card but this one is the most likely winner in this race imo.He is the best trainer at getting horses to progress every single race they run.If this one progresses then it's a race for 2nd.
1-Kingsford Drive 15-1 - Will be overlooked on the step up in class from a 40k claimer to a optional claimer but he ran ok at this level before and might inherit an easy pace setting trip.B. Brown has been on fire at this Belmont meet too.
2-Eastwood 8-1 - Also figures to be up around the pace through easy fractions and could still be getting better in only his 5th start and 2nd from a layoff.Is the final Pletcher on a card where he has a horse in every single race and a good chance at winning in at least 10 of them.WOW!!!
GL
Originally Posted by Easy-Rider 66
^Thx Mike. Are you doing any DW contests tomorrow?
