Originally Posted by
mikemca
Saturday/Kentucky Derby Day
Race 1 has 3 horses that scratched out of the 4th on Friday in Trace Creek 4-1,Upkeep 5-2, and Foolhardy 10-1.I like the bookends with Nick's Pick 7-2 and Prosecution 5-1.
Race 2 is chalky between top 3 MLs and maybe 4th(Pletcher) but that is assuming he improves him considerably 1st time in the barn.
Race 3 We may actually see a Cal bred win on derby day in 1-Masochistic 4-1 instead of the more popular one in R11.4-Swift Humor 12-1 looks like a live firster and 10-Boss Gone 8-1 is the other one.
Race 4 Sometimes the 7 1/2F turf races are hard to put a figure to but if they turn out to be right with 5-Night Song's 6-1 last then she may be best bet on card.2-Faerie Queene 10-1 is the price and prefer 3-Magical Steps 7-2 of the two faves but safer to use both if possible.
Race 5 is impossible , I can make a case for literally 10 of the 11 horses.I guess 2-Twang 5-1 .
Race 6 While I don't know if 9-Centre Court is 7-5 good I do think her and 8-Effie Trinket 6-1 are the class.Trying to find an outsider to stab at with them.
Race 7 is where we get to see 8-Midnight Lucky freak and Judy the Beauty try to keep up.Looking for a price to throw in 1-Street Girl 20-1.
Race 8 Think Craftsman 12-1 got out of character last race being up front and will change to a more patient ride with the switch to great turf jock.
Race 9 With a trip finally Clearly Now can strut his stuff. Sahara Sky and Shakin It Up are the challengers.3-Broadway Empire 15-1 is a price to use.
Race 10 is the next stop in Wise Dan's victory tour.Kaigun 8-1 was reeling him in last race which is very rare.Wise Dan might finally be coming back to earth.If trying to beat him I would want a huge price and I have been on Finnegan's Wake 20-1 his last 2 turf races which teased me with 2 big late runs.Him or Moro Tap 30-1 would be my stabs
Race 11 - Kentucky Derby
6-Samraat 15-1-Changed my mind on this guy after looking closer at his Wood effort and when I tried to envision the trip of each horse.IMO he is a good bet to get a good trip ,is fast enough on figs,game, and therefore the safest key in a box.
20-Wicked Strong 6-1-Price isn't that bad if you think he should be the favorite.Post is a concern but the way Raj rides it may help.
18-Candy Boy 15-1-Liked Hopp and him more than the fave.SA played against while CD plays for them
4-Danza 8-1-Hate the price and the fact everyone and their momma is on him now .He fits on figs but going from 40-1+ in Arkansas to maybe the 2nd choice in the derby is wedding/funeral if I've ever seen one.Too many question marks to take at his likely price.He will most likely be the biggest underlay in the race.
16-Intense Holiday 8-1-He is also slow on figs and will probably be too far out of it but can grab the back end of exotics.
14-Medal Count 20-1-He ,Intense Holiday, and Danza are the hyped up horses.He is slow figurewise but sired by my 2nd favorite horse and would be nice to see the great sire Dyna get a derby winner 2 years after he passed.
19-Ride On Curlin 15-1-Just keeps on plugging no matter how wide he is.
Others
Dance With Fate - Is a possibility but pedigree screams synth
Chrome - Has some of the same ??? as Danza in most likely facing adversity off easy race(s).Has way more foundation though.Price makes him unplayable imo.
Vicars In Trouble - Really like this horse and it's not his post that is a concern.It's the pace scenario.
Chitu - Ditto as V.I.T and Uncle Sigh
Commading Curve - Could plug his way into the Tri/Super/HI5 and wouldn't argue with anyone liking the 50-1
General A Rod - Is in the picture figurewise and could be playable.He just doesn't seem to have killer instinct.
Race 12 is 9-Captain Genius 12-1, 7-Bull Dozer 3-1, and 2-Platitude 6-1.
Race 13 Party Time is an overlay at 3-1.6-Silent Ruler 15-1 and 8-Rocket Time 15-1 are the prices.
