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#3727

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Quote Originally Posted by Gremlin Lad View Post
Joeyp.. check your PM I sent you.

Good Luck Friday.......don't forget about cocktailsandsauce's filly at the Big A !!!
thanks gremlin and with coctails horse im waiting to see the scratches if she is 8-1 or higher, im gonna put her on top of 5 horses for a 10 cent super costing $6 choosing 3 longshots and 2 favorites under her. cant see much in her yet until she gets a race.
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#3728

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Breeder's cup day-1 friday 10/5

race-1
#3 plutonium----SCR
#2 homerun berti----PLACE--4.40
#4 good lord
#1 too wild for words
#6 commandeered

race-2
#1 solar rocket----------PLACE--5.40
#9 china
#10 olympist
#6 dream now
#3 crider

race-3
#7 bulldogger----OUT
#3 dont put it back---SCR
#9 noble's promise--WINNER
#8 close to the edge
#4 don tito

race-4
#5 colizeo-----------SHOW--2.20
#4 demarcation
#6 jackson bend
#1 apart
#3 silver edition

race-5
#4 eldaafer----------WINNER--$23.00--12.00--7.00
#8 giant oak
#12 a.u. Miner
#10 alcomo
#2 prince will i am

race-6
#13 together
#8 wyomia
#11 more than real--------------WINNER
#2 tale untold
#7 winter memories

race-7
#13 rightly so-----SCRATCH
#12 dubai majesty------------------WINNER--$19.20-----9.20
#4 informed decision
#11 jessica is back
#5 evening jewel

race-8
#4 awesome feather--------------WINNER--10.40---5.40
#3 r heat lightning
#2 theysken's theory
#12 tell a kelly
#11 sound wave

race-9-------------------best bet
#7 midday
#8 hot cha cha
#9 hibaayeb
#3 miss keller
#4 keertana

race-10
#3 malibu prayer
#10 blind luck
#11 havre de grace
#1 life at ten
#8 unrivaled belle



BREEDER'S CUP DAY-2 SATURDAY 10/6

RACE-1
#4 ITS ABOUT MIDNIGHT
#8 DEVILS HUMOR
#7 DANCING DARCEY
#1 GIBSON CRYSTAL
#6 SPEIGHTFUL LADY

RACE-2
#2 NICOLE H
#11 MAGNIFICENT MIA
#6 AEGEON
#1 RAPPORT
#9 HAPPY WEEK

RACE-3
#3 ALWAYS A PRINCESS
#2 BRONX CITY GIRL
#8 DISTINCTIVE DIXIE
#5 EMMY DARLING
#9 THIRD DAWN

RACE-4----BC JUVENILE TURF
#10 MADAM DIARIES
#5 MASTER OF HOUNDS
#13 PLUCK
#9 SOLDAT
#8 BANNED

RACE-5-----BC CUP SPRINT
#11 ATTA BOY ROY
#8 CASH REFUND
#6 PASHITO THE CHE
#10 RILEY TUCKER
#3 WISE DAN

RACE-6--BC TURF SPRINT
#3 STRADIVUNSKY------------BEST BET
#4 UNZIP ME
#1 CHAMBERLAIN BRIDGE
#9 ROSE CATHERINE
#5 SILVER TIMBER

RACE-7--GREY GOOSE JUVENILE
#4 JP GUSTO
#2 BOYS AT TOSCONOVA
#1 BIONDETTI
#3 JB THUNDER
#7 UNCLE MO

RACE-8---TVG MILE
#10 GOLDIKOVA
#9 SIDNEYS CANDY
#3 GIO PONTI
#8 GET STORMY
#11 PROVISO

RACE-9--BC DIRT MILE
#5 HERE COMES BEN
#2 TIZWAY
#11 MINE THAT BIRD
#6 GAYEGO
#7 THISKYHASNOLIMIT

RACE-10--EMIRATES AIRLINES TURF
#5 AL KHALI
#4 DEBUSSY
#7 BEHKABAD
#6 WORK FORCE
#1 CHAMP PEGASUS

RACE-11 BC CLASSIC
#8 ZENYETTA-----HAVE TO HOPE SHE GOES UNDEFEATED=20 FOR 20
#7 MUSKETMAN
#1 QUAKITY ROAD
#5 BLAME
#2 ESPOIR CITY

GOOD LUCK AND MAY THE GODS BE WITH US THIS WEEKEND
Last edited by joeyp1222; 11-05-10 at 05:24 PM.
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#3731

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Every year horse players look forward to the World Horse Racing Championships which brings out the best horses and jockeys from around the world. Churchill Downs will host the event for the 6th time and the first time since 2006. The long stretch and relatively cool temperatures at the track make it a venue which is preferred by horsemen from both the Eastern U.S. and Europe. This will be the first time Churchill will host the event over 2 days with the Marathon and filly events being held on Friday and the other events being held on Saturday.

Looking at the 6 years the Breeder's Cup has been held at Churchill, 3 things jump out at the handicapper - the success of European shippers, the quick times and the mammoth payouts. In fact in those 6 years, 9 horses won at odds of 25/1 or better and a whopping 18 horses, or close to 40% of runners won at double digit odds. Spain has been the biggest price winner at Churchill to date paying $114 for a $2 ticket in the 2000 Lady's Classic. Also as mentioned European shippers have won 75% of the turf races run in the Breeder's Cup at the track and 3 European shippers won on the dirt.

With that in mind here are some plays for this year's Breeder's Cup races:

Friday's Races:
The Marathon:

The Marathon is a 1 3/4 mile race that has favoured European invaders despite being run on the dirt. It was only introduced in the last couple of years to fill the card and there is speculation that at some point the race may become a steeplechase. The race has also changed distances several times. From past results it's clear that the horse that wins has to be one with stamina but also one that rates well. No horse has come from way out of it to win the race. 2 horses that look like value plays are Alcomo and Bright Horizon. Alcomo tends to rate well and makes a late charge from just off the pace. He has the ability to handle the distance and has beaten most of the main contenders in the race. As well his outside post should help his chances. Bright Horizon is the sole European in the race and while he has struggled against the best in Europe he does come off a 5 length victory at the 2 mile distance. Aiden O'Brien has been quite successful with his European shippers and there is little other class in the field. As mentioned, Europeans have also fared well in this event in the past.

Juvenile Filly Turf

Winter Memories is the morning line favourite and rightly so. In her 2 races to date she has blown away the competition in great time. She clearly likes the distance and will have plenty of speed to run at. The juvenile filly races have been the one exception to the longshot trend as more than 3/4 of the races in the juvenile filly races at all Breeder's Cup events have gone to the favourite. If anyone is to beat Winter Memories it could be Together. Another Aiden O'Brien horse, Together just got nipped in a Group 1 race at Ascot and is the class of the European shippers. It appears she likes to go to the lead but hangs on well. Together has 6 top 3 finishes in 7 starts including 2 victories.

Filly & Mare Sprint

This race is calling out for a possible longshot. The race is evenly matched and the favourite Rightly So looks vulnerable. Rightly so is a pure speed horse and at Churchill Downs speed is a disadvantage. Informed Decision appears the best of the favourites but look for Gabby's Golden Gal to give a strong showing at long odds. Gabby's Golden Gal has the ability to rate well and also close when needed. She was trounced by Rachel Alexandra in 2009 and finished off the campaign on a poor note but in 2010 she had one start, winning the Grade 1 Santa Monica Handicap in impressive fashion. She hasn't raced in almost 10 months but has been training better than ever and if sound the Bob Baffert horse could surprise.

Juvenile Fillies

The Juvenile Filly race is a toss up with no clear favourite. Like with the juvenile filly sprint, horses that rate well and close impressively are the best option. With that in mind 2 horses jump to the forefront. Tell a Kelly has been very impressive in all her starts in California and she can be forgiven for her bare miss at the Oak Leaf Stakes. She closed impressively to defeat Wickedly Perfect in the race prior to that and Wickedly Perfect is arguably the best juvenile filly in California at the moment. Unfortunately that horse will miss the race. The other horse that jumps out is R Heat Lightening. That horse lost to the morning line favourite AZ Warrior in her last race but was far more impressive at the end. Furthermore, the long stretch and the extra 1/16 of a mile gives R Heat Lightening the advantage over AZ Warrior. Both Tell a Kelly and R Heat Lightening will be low odds but Juvenile filly races rarely go to longshots.

Filly & Mare Turf

The best Filly turf horse will be in the race with Midday shipping in from England. In 4 races this year, Midday has 3 wins including 3 straight Group 1 victories in spectacular time. It's hard to see her losing and she could be a banker for any pick 4 or pick 6 tickets. Hibbayeb and Plumania, which appear to be her biggest challengers were trounced by Midday when they met up.

Lady's Classic

Blind Luck and Havre de Grace are the favourites for the race but they look beatable. Each horse has shown some vulnerability over the season and this race has the makings of another huge payout. The horse that might provide that upset is Persistently. Persistently rates well and loves the distance plus she provided one of the biggest shocks this year when she beat Rachel Alexandra in the Personal Ensign Handicap. By all accounts Persistently didn't come out of the race well and was given some time off. She returned to be beaten handily by Life at Ten but she likely needed that race. There's no reason she couldn't provide a repeat performance of the Personal Ensign. Include Blind Luck in the exotics.
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