Horse Racing questions and answers

Originally Posted by str

Can’t find the pps but saw the entries.
The days off can certainly matter but not as much with nice allowance type horses. And that track will not be as physically demanding as an east coast or cold weather surface would be. They skip over that track pretty easily .
Especially coming from barns that have a history of getting horses ready off time.
Can’t believe Ricky would want to ride Rosario on a horse that will need a race.
No disrespect to Yakteen but you have at least 2 trainers in there that win about 25% of the time. I know it’s a generic stat but don’t think I would be looking to have to beat two of those guys at 25% ( assuming as I can’t see it) and if I’m right and the others don’t beat me, I cash on the presumptive favorite.
Wish I could see the race on paper but with what little I have, not sure I would play into that scenario.
GL if you play sir.

sent you a PM

Originally Posted by Madison

Chk out SA R6. Look at the last start days. 6 horses. 1-342, 2-509, 3-158, and the 5-251.

How does the 6 fail here?

okay devils advocate..... #5 Check out the work tab..
#1 lots of interest in the first 3 races.betting wise. goes to the SA Derby in 4th race and gets crushed. March 1st work is nice
#3 lots of interest betting wise although at lower level tracks. Gets Rosairo and a couple of nice works since last race.
just a couple of thoughts

Just saw the pp’s. Thanks EZ !!

I would fish for one of the others or pass the race.
WHY !

The outside horse drifted at the 1/4 pole 2 races back which I don’t like. Then couldn’t win last time.
I did not have time to look for more than a glance. Not sure if the race has run yet and I am not able to give it fair time.
That said, Tim is having a tough meet with the win % right now. He is a fine horseman but when things are not clicking, and right now it isn’t , it’s usually because of all the little things that happen. You break bad, the inside horse breaks outward, the horse has a freak thing happen, jock makes an unforced error, and about a thousand more things.
The game is tough enough without having to fight luck or a lack of it.
I hope he wins but the risk reward of a big favorite doesn’t match up right now against 2 trainers that hit at about 25% for me.

Hope that makes sense.

GL if you play.

Originally Posted by str

Just saw the pp’s. Thanks EZ !!

I would fish for one of the others or pass the race.
WHY !

The outside horse drifted at the 1/4 pole 2 races back which I don’t like. Then couldn’t win last time.
I did not have time to look for more than a glance. Not sure if the race has run yet and I am not able to give it fair time.
That said, Tim is having a tough meet with the win % right now. He is a fine horseman but when things are not clicking, and right now it isn’t , it’s usually because of all the little things that happen. You break bad, the inside horse breaks outward, the horse has a freak thing happen, jock makes an unforced error, and about a thousand more things.
The game is tough enough without having to fight luck or a lack of it.
I hope he wins but the risk reward of a big favorite doesn’t match up right now against 2 trainers that hit at about 25% for me.

Hope that makes sense.

GL if you play.

Realized I had more time and had a minute to look some more.

The 2 horse looks as though it actually could have a chance. 1st time gelding, and lasix. Was burning up the workouts in the AM and hurt himself a year ago. Got 7-8 months off and went back to training. Has Worked great coming up to being ready to run. I see Cave Rock and Havenameltdown as 2 that he was beaten by. Not too shabby. If you throw out the turf race , what's wrong with that in here at 20-1?

Ricky wouldn't ride Rosario if the horse was not training well. It's a respect thing trainers honor with elite riders.

The 4 horse lost to the 6 by 5 lengths 1st out and is better now with a couple more under him.

The 5 was doing great, had to be stopped and is working well to return. 29% tough to fight IMO.

The 6 is fine but at real short odds and against more than meets the eye at 1st glance with the other ones.

Not sure who I would use for sure, but I would not be on the 6 in this spot at those assumed odds.

GL Madison.

Hey STR I want to buy stock in your performance reading the form once you go Live on the tourney sites. LOL.

Originally Posted by Easy-Rider 66

Hey STR I want to buy stock in your performance reading the form once you go Live on the tourney sites. LOL.

Well thanks EZ. I appreciate that but.. I did talk him off a winner if he followed my advise.

But remember what I said about slumps and secondites at a meet. Luck is hard to find. For Tim, he does win, but his horse falls hard just past the finish line and is vanned off. Unreal.
Man when things go cold at a meet, it almost becomes a survive to the next meet thing. If it's any consolation, do watch that trainer at the next meet. After a meet like this one for Tim, he will probably perk up and go on a run at the next one. Just how it works for a hot and cold trainer. I was that more often than I care to talk about. Boy is it frustrating when things go against you. Fun when they don't though. Youv'e suddenly remembered how to win again. It's crazy.

OK STR good points. Success and failure can run in cycles for sure. THX.

Originally Posted by str

Well thanks EZ. I appreciate that but.. I did talk him off a winner if he followed my advise.

But remember what I said about slumps and secondites at a meet. Luck is hard to find. For Tim, he does win, but his horse falls hard just past the finish line and is vanned off. Unreal.
Man when things go cold at a meet, it almost becomes a survive to the next meet thing. If it's any consolation, do watch that trainer at the next meet. After a meet like this one for Tim, he will probably perk up and go on a run at the next one. Just how it works for a hot and cold trainer. I was that more often than I care to talk about. Boy is it frustrating when things go against you. Fun when they don't though. Youv'e suddenly remembered how to win again. It's crazy.

No, I made a tiny Win bet. Odds awful. While I always appreciate the advice and guidance, I didn't survive 50 years by not following myself. I learned a long long time ago, it's way easier to sleep when one loses betting their own selections, and very tough losing on someone else's.

Check out GP R9 Scylla. Off 288 days, but was my pick for female of the year. Only 2 starts, but I'm not sure they could be more impressive. Can she qualify for the Oaks, and if so, futures?

Thanks for everything.

Originally Posted by Easy-Rider 66

OK STR good points. Success and failure can run in cycles for sure. THX.

A gambling (and maybe life statement) that was never more true.

hey str

I will be keeping an eye out for kingsbarns next start..he breezed 4f @ pbd 5 days ago and that was his first work since his last race ..interested if he tries the g3 @ 1 1/16 on the florida derby undercard next saturday..however back in 4 weeks off a very long layoff vs much tougher company and at a longer distance no easy task..maybe needs more time in between but seems like a listed or g3 stakes about where he belongs now

Originally Posted by JBEX

hey str

I will be keeping an eye out for kingsbarns next start..he breezed 4f @ pbd 5 days ago and that was his first work since his last race ..interested if he tries the g3 @ 1 1/16 on the florida derby undercard next saturday..however back in 4 weeks off a very long layoff vs much tougher company and at a longer distance no easy task..maybe needs more time in between but seems like a listed or g3 stakes about where he belongs now

would think the type of race he ran was very taxing vs sitting off a couple of dueling front runners and coming home well within himself

Originally Posted by JBEX

hey str

I will be keeping an eye out for kingsbarns next start..he breezed 4f @ pbd 5 days ago and that was his first work since his last race ..interested if he tries the g3 @ 1 1/16 on the florida derby undercard next saturday..however back in 4 weeks off a very long layoff vs much tougher company and at a longer distance no easy task..maybe needs more time in between but seems like a listed or g3 stakes about where he belongs now

Originally Posted by JBEX

would think the type of race he ran was very taxing vs sitting off a couple of dueling front runners and coming home well within himself

Appreciate the workout info. A 1/2 in 50 is most likely more like a 3/4's or 7/8ths or even mile workout. The first half, quarter or whatever is most likely 15's which they will not time. I will also assume that the times 50 was a 26-24 split. All that would be an indicator that he is doing really well and he is being worked with the relax and go as we have talked about a bunch. Let's see if he works today or tomorrow or Saturday. Typically, time wise, 7 or 8 days, it would be today or tomorrow depending on weather and or track condition. So let's see what happens there.
As for the next start, they do run a mile out of the chute at Churchill right? Think I remember the Pat Day Mile out of the chute. Anyway, maybe there is an option there if not a grade 3 two turn race? An ungraded race would be great but I seem to want to baby this horse. Lol.
Old school habits die hard JBEX.


And yes, the race was somewhat taxing but he was not all out so not as bad as it could have been but not as good as it could have been either IMO.

Originally Posted by str

Appreciate the workout info. A 1/2 in 50 is most likely more like a 3/4's or 7/8ths or even mile workout. The first half, quarter or whatever is most likely 15's which they will not time. I will also assume that the times 50 was a 26-24 split. All that would be an indicator that he is doing really well and he is being worked with the relax and go as we have talked about a bunch. Let's see if he works today or tomorrow or Saturday. Typically, time wise, 7 or 8 days, it would be today or tomorrow depending on weather and or track condition. So let's see what happens there.
As for the next start, they do run a mile out of the chute at Churchill right? Think I remember the Pat Day Mile out of the chute. Anyway, maybe there is an option there if not a grade 3 two turn race? An ungraded race would be great but I seem to want to baby this horse. Lol.
Old school habits die hard JBEX.


And yes, the race was somewhat taxing but he was not all out so not as bad as it could have been but not as good as it could have been either IMO.

know you've mentioned the "15's" before and it's good to know from a capping perpective that the horse might've put in that extra work besides the 4f one(s) showing ..i'll keep an eye out for the next

the pat day mile is for 3yo's so that's out of the question ..the best fit at kee would be a g3 on 4/20 but it's at 1 3/16 miles..probably not ideal off a 7f race but he did get that last year in the louisiana derby although that was wire to wire with a crawling pace

coming off as long a layoff as he has,ideally,do you want to bring the horse back within about 2 months so he carries forward some of the conditioning from that race ?

I've actually come to think that waiting a little longer and trying that longer race at kee might not be a bad route lol to go

I understand how the horse is doing plays a huge part in this and of course I don't know this..my feel is if things were going somewhat smoothly that coming back in 4 weeks (next weeks race) might be a little soon with his overall circumstances..6 -8 weeks seems more reasonable

Originally Posted by JBEX

know you've mentioned the "15's" before and it's good to know from a capping perpective that the horse might've put in that extra work besides the 4f one(s) showing ..i'll keep an eye out for the next

the pat day mile is for 3yo's so that's out of the question ..the best fit at kee would be a g3 on 4/20 but it's at 1 3/16 miles..probably not ideal off a 7f race but he did get that last year in the louisiana derby although that was wire to wire with a crawling pace

coming off as long a layoff as he has,ideally,do you want to bring the horse back within about 2 months so he carries forward some of the conditioning from that race ?

I've actually come to think that waiting a little longer and trying that longer race at kee might not be a bad route lol to go

Q. know you've mentioned the "15's" before and it's good to know from a capping perpective that the horse might've put in that extra work besides the 4f one(s) showing ..i'll keep an eye out for the next

A. It is fair to assume what I am describing. A half in 50 would be useless for this horse as far as training is concerned. Todd is most likely simulating a race type effort with slow, build up, finish thru the lane stuff. That's fairly typical, especially in these circumstances.

the pat day mile is for 3yo's so that's out of the question

Yes, I knew that but was making sure I was correct about a mile out of a chute there.

Q. coming off as long a layoff as he has,ideally,do you want to bring the horse back within about 2 months so he carries forward some of the conditioning from that race ?

A. I would certainly think so or less if possible. 6-7 weeks probably being ideal in todays game.

I've actually come to think that waiting a little longer and trying that longer race at kee might not be a bad route lol to go

Guess it just depends what is out there to choose from.
Todd knows this horse. He will make sure he is real comfortable where he puts him. He has no calendar pointing now I assume so he can do anything he wants.