Horse Racing questions and answers

A couple of thoughts:

A follow up to the last response about meeting trainers. If the track near you does not have some sort of format to be able to ask questions to a trainer or jockey, and you really would like to see them do it, contact the head of publicity at the track. Every track has one and his/her name is probably on the first page of the program. Ask to speak with that person and suggest they do it. That is their job so you are not at all out of bounds by doing so. It is a solid idea and very fan friendly.

I said that I was going to be doing a write up on trainers and or medication and basically writing about stuff that most would not or could not write about. I said I would do this in August. I will indeed do this but for now I can not. I was going to speak about several things but part of it was going to be about New York racing and whats going on currently with a pending 10 year suspension for Rick D. Because he has appealed and it will now be probably a year or so before anything gets resolved, I will hold my thoughts on that exact subject and let the appeal play out. I will say this though. What gamblers as well as racing higher ups assume (and rightfully so as far as assumptions go) from what they have read and what they conclude( understandably in a game where cheating has been taken to another level in the late 80s but much more under control today than 10-15 years ago) from Rick's results, are not nearly as correct as people think. I absolutely HATE cheaters within the game. I have NO tolerance for them. And while Ricky is far from a saint, he is NOT what people are pretty sure he is.The perception is skewed. You will have to trust me on that for now and some might chose to not believe me, but if the truth hurts, so be it. Is he crazy as hell? Yes. Is he what people on the backside might categorize as a loose horse? Oh yeah. Does he use needles and dope his horses to gain the edge that makes him so successful? Absolutely NOT! I will address questions on this subject but might need to be a bit careful with some of the answers. All answers will be like all of the previous answers I have given. The truth to the best of my ability.

I want to do a write up on Lasix in the next month and will try to do so. More of an informational and my take on what is going on but also my look to the future if it is abolished and how I think they should do so with the betting public as well as the horse's best interest at heart.

Happy Thanksgiving to all that take the time to read this and keep the questions coming.

will wait for your thoughts on lasix, though if lasix were abolished would it not just give trainers another excuse for that 3/5 shot running up the track... well he must have bled today, i think it stays

happy holidays str

Originally Posted by zebra58

will wait for your thoughts on lasix, though if lasix were abolished would it not just give trainers another excuse for that 3/5 shot running up the track... well he must have bled today, i think it stays

happy holidays str

Trainers already use that excuse when a 3/5 runs bad even with Lasix.
The old "maybe he bled" trick .

I hope your right. It needs to stay, but not necessarily forever in the Stakes races and not necessarily to the degree it currently is. I promise to put my thoughts to paper soon.

On a lighter note, the all time best excuse I ever heard from a jockey was from a jock who was the leading rider for several years in Maryland . He got off one of my buddies horses and it was the last race at Laurel. Track was wet fast . The sun was getting low in the fall so the glare was coming hard from the clubhouse turn down the stretch. Jockey tells the trainer that the horse didn't finish up because the sun was in his eyes.

The trainer said he would make a pair of blinkers with tinted plastic see through bubbles on the horse in his next race.
One of the best excuses ever.

Happy holiday's to you as well Zebra.

Quite season.

I'm going over my data and was wondering what your thoughts may be on the horse that shows. The method I'm working on has good results with identifying the top two horses, but accuracy veers off quite sharply with the 3rd horse. This seems to make sense from a competitive standpoint. For example, when three or four horses are racing to the wire, two of them often maintain intensity all the way, and the other(s) may give up earlier, leaving room for the 5th or 6th horse to take 3rd. It seems to be the spot that's most up for grabs. This could be an interesting dynamic from a betting perspective, similar to a backdoor cover for a football dog, and I suspect there may be some value there (if only because I've never read anything about it). Not quite sure where to start, though. Is it purely a matter of energy distribution and running out of gas? Are there jockeys that race only to win and don't care about 3rd? Do longshots care a lot more about showing than contenders that lost the race? As a trainer, did you care about third place?

Originally Posted by Dark Horse

Quite season.

I'm going over my data and was wondering what your thoughts may be on the horse that shows. The method I'm working on has good results with identifying the top two horses, but accuracy veers off quite sharply with the 3rd horse. This seems to make sense from a competitive standpoint. For example, when three or four horses are racing to the wire, two of them often maintain intensity all the way, and the other(s) may give up earlier, leaving room for the 5th or 6th horse to take 3rd. It seems to be the spot that's most up for grabs. This could be an interesting dynamic from a betting perspective, similar to a backdoor cover for a football dog, and I suspect there may be some value there (if only because I've never read anything about it). Not quite sure where to start, though. Is it purely a matter of energy distribution and running out of gas? Are there jockeys that race only to win and don't care about 3rd? Do longshots care a lot more about showing than contenders that lost the race? As a trainer, did you care about third place?

Is it purely running out of gas?
For the most part, Yes. When a horse fades late, the pieces are there for anyone to pick up.

Jockeys that only race for win?
I would not suggest that at all. I would say that there were one or two trainers way back in the day that prefer to be 1st, 2nd or 5th/6th and not 3rd or 4th but not jockeys. I say this because I became very friendly with a long time jocks agent that had been in Md. for many years once I started training. He pointed out things to me that I did not recognize for what they seemingly were when I first started. Over time I felt as though he was correct. I'm going way back here.
I watched for certain trainers and any patterns. I became obsessed with pin pointing trainers patterns. It was a big help in my decision making process when claiming certain horses.
But you must keep in mind is that the triple bet was a relatively new concept then. Of course, show wagering was not, and I am not defending it at all. Just pointing out the facts as well as my formulated opinion based on what I observed.
So, IMO there were claiming trainers(only a couple or less than that and I know that sounds vague but that's the best I can do) that I felt were ok with not finishing 3rd or 4th with some of there claimers back in the day. I could have been wrong. I will say that over time, those strategies changed . Again, IMO.
Having said that, those outfits still had many horses finish 3rd or 4th. It is not that easy to avoid. What I am talking about is putting away the stick or the aggressive hand riding that otherwise might be seen. I think that on some horses back in the day, I saw a less than fully engaged finish by the rider. Just my opinion. Someone else's might be different.
While on that subject, it is also IMO, that the sole reason for this was to be able to possibly move a horse down the claiming ladder a notch or so and possibly not have it claimed. I would never say that I felt in any way that anything that I saw or thought I saw had anything to do with cashing a ticket or anything betting related. IMO, no way. It was, I think, a business strategy from the claiming aspect only.
By the 90's those patterns were long gone from what I saw.

Do long shots care more?
I would say yes . In a lot of cases the rider is a struggling rider that is hungry for mounts. If he gets a 3rd out of a 30-1 shot, he gets the mount back right? Maybe other mounts as well. If a horse that has not earned money lately has a chance to do so, it is great if they do. Thirds are like winners to some people especially at smaller tracks if the trainer is not getting many chances with a string of bad horses.

Did I care about 3rd?
Yes. I made that crystal clear to my stable riders from day one. The main reason for that is when I first started, 3rd was 12%. They only paid back to forth in most states. I felt as though five 3rd's was the same as a winner. Also, I owned or my family owned many horses. Those 3rd's added up. I also felt that , coming from a mentor that was as good with a sore horse as anyone ( and legally, I will add ) my reputation was cut from the same cloth. Everyone knew who I was and who I came up under on the east coast. If I wanted to steal with a horse, I would just drop them off of a 3rd. I would drop horses with good form as well as bad form. The one thing I learned from watching King Leatherbury is that if you showed a pattern of drop downs or raise up's , he would pick up on that and eat you alive. Had to throw a curve ball every now and then just to keep him and others honest.
King could read guys like a book, just as I learned how to read Bud Delp like a book for a while until Bid came around. Once that happened, Bud's stable changed and he did not deal with the cheaper claimers that much. It was just as well. If Bud had gotten pissed enough , he could have run me right out of Maryland. He was that strong. In a weird kind of way, Bud took a liken to me over time, but for a while, he was pretty pissed at me and I guess I couldn't blame him.

This question was one of your best yet. I hope it helps all you guys that play triples. Third is indeed a real crap shoot. Your stats are dead on. Sounds like this might have brought more clarity to the show spot. I hope so.
Happy to elaborate more but you will have to tell me exactly how.

Thanks again str. Definitely more food for thought. A complex issue. For now, I will try to fit this into a energy distribution/acceleration (or decreased deceleration) approach and see how far that takes me. The degree of deceleration of horses that run out of gas in the stretch is just as dramatic as horses that roar by the competition on their way to victory. So I have to look more closely at the amount of energy left for the stretch. Big project. lol

Triples:

As I have stated before, I knew two pro players in Md. well enough to be able to talk to them without them hounding me for info that quite frankly , I was a little uncomfortable talking about. They were good guys and sure, if they were looking to make a play with a particular horse of mine, they would say something like" I'm on your horse today, nothing I am not seeing is there?" I never had a problem with that. So while that was the upside for them, sitting around discussing triples or pick 6's or betting strategies was an upside for me.
When they would play triples, and not always because EVERY situation is always a little different when it comes to playing and spreading your play within a race, they might break down a race like this:
1 1/16 mile race on dirt:
3 speeds
4 stalks
3 closers
First of all, playing all three speeds or all three closers on a triple ticket is not the way to go 99% of the time if not 100% of the time. That is basic stuff, right?
So, let's say you like one of the speeds pretty well. That right there says a lot. Why? Because typically if there are 3 speed horses that will duel for the lead, it would make sense to be looking elsewhere for a winner . So, if you have stayed with ONE of the speeds , it must be clearly a better speed horse than the others or maybe just a little better but has the one hole say at Laurel( break just before the clubhouse turn) and the other speeds have the 7 and 9 hole which gives the 1 horse a huge edge to make the lead. That pretty much has the one horse on a 1 1/2 or 2 length easy lead by the 3/4 pole( after 5 /16s of the race).
From there you like a stalker as well. It probably figures to be a soft to average pace early on so a stalker makes perfect sense. Lets call that horse the 2 horse. So, you like the 1 and the 2 horses. You want to play a triple. So what do you do?
The way they would break it down would be probably something like this:
1,2-1,2- and others that they felt had value first(will explain later) and a common sense type of probable chance to run 3rd based on there theory as to how the race would be run. Under this scenario, they liked the 1 and the 2 equally.
They might choose to use the best 2 closers and another stalker or the next 2 stalkers and a closer. I doubt that it would be wise to use one of the other speeds knowing full well that they would be wide on both turns ( because most speed horses will prefer to not have dirt thrown in there face) and of course, the one horse has the lead and the rail. But maybe you decide to use the better of the remaining two speeds in case the pace is slow. That is reasonable.
With there thought process, if the one did not make the lead or was dueled into submission by others, then they were going to be wrong about the race anyway so why do a "all" ticket or add horses that did not figure according to how the pace was theoretically going to play out.
Maybe , lets say they loved the 1 horse( speed) and liked the 2 ( stalker) somewhat but the 1 was the play.
There triple would read Key 1-2 and value and/or piece horses, let's say 3,4,5/so key 1 with 2 with the 3,4,5. They are basically keying the 2 to run 2nd.
Once you have that ticket in hand, you can take the 2 out of the second spot and just play a Key 1 / with 3,4,5/ 2. That allows the 2 horse to be third as well but must be 2nd or 3rd for you to cash. You can choose to go heavier with the 2 horse in the 2nd spot or any way you want to approach it. But... you like the 2 and the 3,4,5 are mop up horses so if it runs 1-3-5 you would lose but you really liked the 2 to be on the ticket anyway, so that's ok. Spreading to play a 1 with 2,3,4,5 but liking the 2 much more than the 3,4,5 is a waste of money in the long run.
You try and identify horses to use based on value or different scenarios, like a soft early pace. Again, maybe you do use the 7( another speed) because your thought process is that the 1 horse will walk the dog( easy, slow lead) and the lack of pace will allow the 7 to remain in the hunt. Different scenarios as to how the race will be run pace wise, will allow you to make a case for another speed maybe, or a closer with a nice trip or whatever. Spreading to various scenarios in the 3rd spot leaves the door open no matter what happens in the race.
I would think that it would be reckless to play triples only without having other plays in place. I see this happen all the time and it does not make any sense. Going back to the horses above, you really like the 1 horse. If the horse has any value on the board isn't a win ticket a must? I would think yes. If you were solid with the 1 and 2 wouldn't an exacta box be appropriate? Probably yes again. Or a 10 dollar one way and a 20 dollar the other way, but something. If you only play the triple, and it comes in 1,2 and a horse you failed to use 3rd, you have absolutely nailed the first two horses and you have nothing! That's crazy!
So if you were putting 50.00 in the race , maybe 20 win, 5.00 exacta box and a 1.00 triple 1,2/1,2/ 3,4,5. That's 36.00 and then you decide according to odds whether you play another 5.00 triple Key 1/2/3,4,5 or maybe if the 1 is 5-2 but the 2 is 8-1 you swing the win bet over to the 8-1 shot or fatten up the exacta with the 2 beating the 1. Not betting both horses to win. Unless they are both long odds , I would never consider that.
The important thing to remember is that if you risk 50.00 and nail everything and get 230.00 back, you have won 180.00 BUT...if the 1 was 5-2 there was not much value for the various risk. You would have won 125.00 + your 50 anyway so the triple and exactas need to give you more payback than that for amount of risk taken. That is why value and longer prices are important when playing triples IMO . If you hit the win bet and the exacta but missed the triple , if you played it for value, chances are it did not pay more than 6-7 times the exacta anyway. But if you hit the triple and played it for value, it very well can pay a minimum of 10 times the exacta( a reasonable rule of thumb on what triples should pay) and probably more than that.
One other scenario to watch for is when you see a horse that figures to run well and it is 2nd very often. If you like the horse to run 2nd again , play a ticket with a couple of horses winning and a couple of horses 3rd and keying the horse that often runs second in the second spot. Most horses that do this are hangers, and will do it every chance they can. You can also look for horses that seemingly always run 3rd. You should also watch for the all or nothing horses. Horses that have maybe run 16 times with 7 wins , but no 2nd's or 3rd's. Why use those types anywhere except the spot that they relish?
Too me, this is how you break down a triple play. Look at it while running the race in your mind or on paper prior to betting. If you guys have ever watched Jerry Bailey break a race down on T.V. beforehand he will show you the break, the 3/4 pole, the 1/2 mile or 3/8s pole , 1/4 pole or entering the stretch and finish.
This is exactly how trainers and jocks talk about a race . And this is how the two guys that used to be in Laurel did it as well. In my mind, it is the best way to try to figure a race from start to finish . And that is because pace is so vital to the outcome. It is rare that pace does not make the race.
So, if you are searching for ways to put a triple ticket together, try this approach . I think it will help.

Thanks so much!

A question about 2 year olds (I think). This is the Spectacular Bid 100K at Gulfstream from this past weekend.



My question is about the #3 horse Vexor. In my opinion he had a lot going for him and it didn't hurt that Castellano was riding him for the second time; they had won before back in August. On the downside his PP"s are all over the place. Two races in which he did run and won (Beyers 80 and 80), and three races where he quit (Beyers 45, 40, 42; his first race was the 42 and he finished six lengths behind the winner in 2nd spot). The video doesn't show it, but he didn't really want to get into the gate for this race. Sure enough, he quit again... So I'm wondering what your trainer's eye tells you. Is this up and down behavior to be expected from 2 year olds? Or did he get freaked out by the outside horse eye to horse right eye factor you mentioned earlier? If you were training this horse what would your approach be after seeing such a mixture of winning and quiting?

Originally Posted by Dark Horse

A question about 2 year olds (I think). This is the Spectacular Bid 100K at Gulfstream from this past weekend.



My question is about the #3 horse Vexor. In my opinion he had a lot going for him and it didn't hurt that Castellano was riding him for the second time; they had won before back in August. On the downside his PP"s are all over the place. Two races in which he did run and won (Beyers 80 and 80), and three races where he quit (Beyers 45, 40, 42; his first race was the 42 and he finished six lengths behind the winner in 2nd spot). The video doesn't show it, but he didn't really want to get into the gate for this race. Sure enough, he quit again... So I'm wondering what your trainer's eye tells you. Is this up and down behavior to be expected from 2 year olds? Or did he get freaked out by the outside horse eye to horse right eye factor you mentioned earlier? If you were training this horse what would your approach be after seeing such a mixture of winning and quiting?

Without the benefit of his PPs I will tell you what I assume as well as what I saw. If you can provide them , I will clear up any assumptions later.

Is this up and down behavior to be expected from 2 year olds? No. What he did is not 2 year old related.

Did the right eye factor I talk about cause this? Not to the severity that I saw unless the horse is as chicken crap as a horse can be. He stopped way beyond normalcy. The abrupt way that he stopped tells me that it was either physical or mental but whatever it was , it is severe.
Typically a lot of horses get outrun in the position that he was in. However, they are not usually outrun at 3-2 to the point where they stop at the 3/8s pole in a sprint. If the rider had any horse he would have been fine until the eventual winner got a head in front. Had he done the slow fade from that point then I could have understood . But he stopped at the 3/8s pole and lost 2 lengths to the horse that was 2nd at the time, within 4 strides.
Didn't this horse run on Breeders Cup day? If so, did he run 1 1/16? That would have dulled his speed cutting back to a sprint but still, he was trying to tell us something.
So here are some facts. If this horse is a speed horse and I assume he is, rarely will pure speed horses be hard to load. Why? Because that is the key area for him to gain the spot he will need in order to win. A speed horses focus is highest at that point and a bad gate horse that is also a pure speed is not going to work. Most trainers will solve any gate problems well before a horses 2nd start if speed is a requirement to running well. Also, most speed horses are eager to load and break. They WANT to get the game started. So I assume that this horse is not normally bad loading. (Wish I had his form). So he loads badly and breaks not very sharp at all. Horses that do not WANT to be running ( don't feel well or sore or something subtle that the trainer or jock has not identified ) usually balk at loading and or break sluggishly. That is not to say that every time it happens there is a problem but if my horse that usually loads fine is having a problem loading , I am uncomfortable already. ( Crazy crowds and big distractions aside).
The other thing I saw was the horse as he turned for home. The rider was obviously upset with him, slashing him on the shoulder with the whip while he was dropping back rapidly. He probably felt that the horse quit and was giving no effort whatsoever.
Again, without his form I have a lot of questions. Were his wins wire to wire OR lay 2nd but outside with perfect position? Were his losses from inside or in between when looked in the eye and pinned in tight(right eye)? I would guess yes, but I want to be fair to the horse. If that is the case, it would figure that he would have been wearing blinkers and probably a shadow roll(fuzzy band across his nose) by now. But he was not.
Having two 80s and 3-4 40s to his credit, he is seemingly an all or nothing horse. But I am concerned from the physical side as well. Once he turned for home he was running somewhat like a car looks from behind that has a bent frame and goes down the road. He looked uncomfortable running through the lane from what little I saw before he fell off the screen.
I will be happy to express my approach but it would help with that if I had his form.
If you can scan his PPs , please do.

Appreciate you looking into this horse. He ran in the BC Juv Sprint (6f). PP's attached. I did search for an injury report online, but nothing. Perplexed, because this horse can run ... when he feels like it.

Oh my ! The horse is as pure speed as a horse can possibly be. Crazy speed breeding!
Let's start with this. Breeding weaknesses will usually rear it's ugly head within the form of the foals that it creates. Having said that, this horse only has one gear and that is "all I got better work early or I am done".
Other than the workout before the BC where he was almost assuredly tricked into working slow so as not to leave it on the track he has only been outworked by 14 out of 227 horses on varying surfaces.That is smoken! The trick as I call it is a tactic used by trainers that has the horse 2 minute lick(15 sec. per 1/8th) from the 5/8s or 3/4 pole and not realize they are working until hopefully half way through the work and then finish up strong.You try to work on stamina a little. The downside of 2 minute licking early in works is that you do risk dulling speed somewhat. Not always, but sometimes. ( Another reason to pay no attention to workouts). I completely understand what the trainer is trying to do but from the form as well as the last effort , it's starting to fail miserably. Would also question trying this before the biggest race of his life.
Now, nobody hates being 2nd guessed as to what decisions are made in training styles more than I did and here I am skirting on the edges of doing it. But I am only doing so to explain what I see and not to criticize. Want to make that clear.
Four out of six gate appearances have gone somewhere between "not so well to bad " and maybe there was something not so good about the other 2 as well. I don't know. That is a real concern.
His first race was fine and his 2nd race was as I figured before seeing his form. His 3rd race with the inside post was crushing . He was both outrun and covered up as a speed horse early . The Nashua Stakes post draw allowed this horse that has speed and ability but no heart the chance to win. He won with the perfect outside post ( the box as I have talked about) , a clear right eye, and therefore a great trip.( Kinda figured that as well.) I was at Saratoga the day he broke his maiden but do not remember the race as I really was not paying a lot of attention to many of the races other than the Whitney , the West. Va. Derby on T.V. and the last race at the Spa that day.
I am thinking that blinkers would only make this horse more speed crazy than he already is , so I get that. The shadow roll might help bring his head down a little but I would need to see a replay of a win to compare the two.
The bottom line is that this horse is exactly what I feared he might be before I saw his form. He is as chicken as a horse can be. He demands a perfect trip or you get nothing. Even if he possibly hurt himself somewhat in this last race, and the more I know now, the less I think it was that, he has showed what he is and is not. His action through the lane , what little I could see, was his defiance towards wanting to compete once covered up. He has passed 2 horses in his career. So indeed his stopping in the last race WAS because he got covered up and therefore quit IMO.I am sure that he will not run at all with ANY dirt kicked in his face. Where he quit in the S. Bid race was right when that dirt would have hit him and when the 2nd horse broke his heart. Chances are, he displaced his pallet as well,( breathing issue) but that is because of the events within the trip.
Back to his breeding again, his over breeding on the speed end might very well have him as a hyper, nervous type that is overly anxious. Maybe not but that much pure speed breeding opens the door for all sorts of potential mental problems.
I could only play this horse if I felt sure that he would make the length + lead and preferably with an outside post. With an inside post, he will need to be 2 lengths faster than the rest . Outside, a little less. He is certainly not a horse to put anywhere but on top or nowhere in a triple( if you lose , you lose).
Let me know if you have any followups on this one.

Thanks so much. According to my method he should have run big. So something is clearly missing in my method. lol Now that I know the missing element is 'lack of heart' I can start looking for it.

Is this something the horse can't overcome, or could a trainer help him gain confidence in time?

Originally Posted by Dark Horse

Thanks so much. According to my method he should have run big. So something is clearly missing in my method. lol Now that I know the missing element is 'lack of heart' I can start looking for it.

Is this something the horse can't overcome, or could a trainer help him gain confidence in time?

These are traits that will show up early on in a horses career. Once he did what he did in the Hopeful and followed it up in the Nashua the trait was exposed.If not confirmed in the B. Cup race it most certainly was in the Bid. Yes there are a small % of horses that might change over for a variety of reasons but by and large, he has stamped himself as what I have said. Trainers can try and that is what the guy was probably trying to do in the slower work but most times, they are what they are, especially when they are following blood line patterns. I mean, Forest Wildcat did not like being hooked early. Yes It's True and if the mares name points in the right direction Clever Trick. All fairly one dimensional. So bloodlines bringing out the worst trait makes this guy extremely one dimensional. Does that make sense?
Yes, certain trainers that work super hard to relax young horses will have a better chance than others at achieving this, but this guy was stamped pretty hard with the all or nothing gene and while another trainer might have done somewhat better or maybe not, horses are a bit like people when it comes to having guts or heart. Some have it and some don't.
Trainers with a high % with firsters and 2 yr olds rarely have those lofty stats by chance.This trainers stats with babies was suspect on the form you attached. Very ordinary.
Look at the winning stats with babies, of the trainer that won the Bid race. He is one of the finest trainers with young horses in the U.S. He is very underrated with young horses as well as ALL horses . Most all of his relax, split horses, and do things right from the beginning don't they.

Originally Posted by Dark Horse

Thanks so much. According to my method he should have run big. So something is clearly missing in my method. lol Now that I know the missing element is 'lack of heart' I can start looking for it.

Is this something the horse can't overcome, or could a trainer help him gain confidence in time?

Too be clear:
If it is worked on from day one of training, months before his first race, you have a chance to overcome it.

Once we are to this point, it is almost impossible to fix.