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2011/2012 Hockey season

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#1

Default 2011/2012 Hockey season

Hi guys glad the season is back. There's nothing like hockey

These are my previous year record.

2010-2011 YTD 245-236 +48.62 units

2009-2010 YTD 165-191 +1.63 units




I locked in a few to win the cup at the end of last year so I will just rewrite them

All the bets will be risking a unit if its a + (dog) play and to win a unit if it's - (favorite)


Buffalo to win the cup +3300, 1*
New York Rangers to win the cup +3900, 1*



I love the additions Buffalo made in the off season addressing their needs to be stronger on the blue line with the addition of Regehr and Ehrhoff. You add the fact that Myers is one year older That should provide more support for Miller, who I expect to have a rebound year if he's more supported on the back end. The first 3 lines have all kind of talent with Roy (who is back after missing a bunch of games last year), Vanek, Ennis, Stafford, Pominville. Even if Leino, Boyes and Gerbe don't pan out this is still a ton of talent. This team should make the playoff and have good tools to go a pretty long way in.

The Rangers added the most important piece to the team adding a 1st line center in Richards. We all know the success Brad and Head coach Tortorella had in Tampa a while back. Tortorella loves Richards. Having that top center man will also help Gaborik and should help the PP. The have very good secondary scoring also in a bunch of guys having good seasons last year (Dubinsky, Callahan, Anisimov, Stepan). The backend I find is one of the most underated Ds out there. Marc Staal and Girardi are really maturing and all the other young defence are one year older, Del Zotto, McDonagh (+16), Sauer (+20). And of course they have one of the best netkeepers out there in Lundqvist. I think they make the playoffs and play spoilers in a round or 2.
#2

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Season bet,

Ottawa Senators Under 84.5 Points -115, 2.5* (Sportsbetting)

As much as I hate betting against my team, I love money way more and can't believe I can get this line. Where to start here...

It's pretty clear this team is in full rebuild mode now. They dropped the excess baggage at the trade deadline last year (Kovalev, Fisher, Kelly, Campoli). Now they replace all those players with a bunch of rookies. They do have some pretty decent ones that showed last year that they have skill. Butler, Greening, Condra, Smith all looked decent last year. But they were playing for a team already out of the playoffs with no pressure. This year they will have bigger roles in a hockey nation and there's no telling how they will respond. On top of that you have to rely on a top line that has 3 uncertain players there. Alfredsson is getting older, Spezza is a enigma and Michalek has been injured a lot and under performing since joining the sens.

But even with all those uncertainties what worries me the most about this team is their blue line. I don't think there's a worst defensive blue line out there this year. Except for Phillips there is no one good in their own end. Gonchar was a mistake, Kuba looks awfull and they couldn't even give him away this off season. Karlsson has tons of upsides but was -30 last year. Lee never paned out has they thought. They have Runblad who I think will be very good in the future but unlikely this year.

Even If Anderson plays good ( which is also uncertain). The blue line won't give him much support. Add the fact that they play in the northeast in which Boston and Montreal haven't lost much and Buffalo and Toronto got better. I think this is pretty close to a sure shot. Overall the east has gotten better as a whole so there needs to be teams that Regress or stay the same and I think Ottawa is more than likely to do so.
#3

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Season bet

Washington Capitals Over 101.5 Points, 2.5* (Sportsbetting)

The Capitals ended up with 107 points last year. They still made that number of points despite the changes they made in the middle of the season to play more defensively and also the whole HBO build up in which they went in a pretty big slump around that time. Now we can get a 5 point cushion with a better goaltender. Vokoun was the steal of the summer without a doubt. He has been largely forgotten for a lot of years because he played for the pathetic Panthers (in which I'm not sure I buy the whole free agent frenzy they did this year). His save pct has not been under .919 since the lockout. The other additions will add grit to the club and they have a bunch of talent. Ovechkin looks like a man on a mission and should be the favorites to win the east again. The PP will also benefit from Green who is healthy. Getting 101.5 is a gift and I will gladly take it.

Let's look at their division now, Tampa Bay as lost their deceptiveness as everyone knows that they are a good team now, I wouldn't be surprise to see a small drop from last year. Carolina should be around the same as last year as they depend on young guys a lot. Winnipeg has a pretty awful traveling schedule that should take it's toll at the end of the season and the Panthers are a bunch of new guys that will take some time to gel if they ever do.

Getting 101.5 is a gift and I will gladly take it.
#4

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Season bet

St Louis Blues Over 84.5 points -115, 2.5* (Sportsbetting)

The blues finished last year with 87 points. That's pretty good considering they were probably the most injured team in the nhl last year. Perron, Oshie, Mcdonald, Polak and even Halak all missed significant time. This team as really good talent spread out on all the team. They have a tough to play against talented duo in Stewart and Backes. Then they have Mcdonald, Steen, Berglund (who is starting to show signs of the true potential he has), Oshie, Perron ( who might play later this year) and even D'Agostini who had a good season last year. They also added Langenbrunner and Arnott who will bring experience on the team. On the back end they have talented duo of Pietrangelo and Shattenkirk who should ancher the powerplay and post some good numbers. they also have veteran Jackman and Polak who should stabilize things. Halak struggled a bit last year and if the blues want to make the playoffs he will have to play better but we know he is capable of that playing lights out for the Habs 2 seasons ago.

The only thing that scares me a little about this bet is the division they play in. I think it's the best in the nhl. I think Detroit should regress a little but other then that all the other teams still seems solid. But, I also think a lot of teams in the western conference has gotten worst this year and I think 85 points should be pretty easy for this team if they can stay healthy.
#5

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Season bet

Phoenix Coyotes Under 94.5 points -115, 2* (Sportsbetting)

The Coyotes have made the playoffs in 2 straight year while many experts thought they would have a regression last year. The reason for the Coyotes success is in no way due to their talent. It's a Tippett system combined with a good goaltender that has worked very well. Unfortunately the team lost their biggest asset this off season because Bryzgalov signed a big contract for the Flyers. I'm not sure Smith is the answer in net to replace Bryzgalov. He has been inconsistent all the years he's been starting in net. The Coyote's forwards are mediocre at best and should struggle to score. They do have pretty decent D but I doubt it will be enough.

When you take a closer look at last year's numbers we can see that Phoenix finished 6th in the west with 99 points but when you take a closer look we can see that they only had a +5 goal differential which was the worst in the playoff teams in the west. That means they won a great number of close games. That was with Bryzgalov in net one of the best goaltenders in the league. That is likely to drop with Smith.

We are getting a good number here at 94.5 points and we will gladly take it. Let's also not forget the whole ownership, moving situation in Phoenix.
#8

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Thanks guys I had a few more leans but Sportsbetting adjusted their lines today, I do have 1 more probable play for team points. I do have this one I just locked in

Season bet

Tavares will score more goals than Ladd -110, 2* (The Greek)
75 minimum games must be played by both players


They did score the same number of goals last year but you have to consider that Tavares is only playing it's third season and is on a very good offensive team in the Islanders. I don't think the casual fan knows hoe good this team is offensively. Tavares is one of the most best young players out there and I really believe we will see some good numbers from him this year. Don't get me wrong I really like Ladd as a player but I think he's more of a very good two way forward and I think the 30 goal mark is his plateau. We get the player with the more offensive upside here for even money. I will gladly take it for 2 units
#9

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Season bet

Detroit Red Wings Under 48.5 wins -105, 1* (pinnacle)

Detroit is arguably the best team in the last decade in the nhl. They have put together year after year good teams on the ice. But I think we should see a normal regression soon. First and most importantly they are getting older. Lidstrom is close to retirement and while he still putted a bunch of points on the board he had his first - season which is alarming. Rafalski who was very solid on the defense retired last year so they brought in White and Commodore to try and replace him but I'm not sure it will work. And then we have Holmstrom and Bertuzzi are in their late 30s.

Last year they got 47 wins while the year before they had 44. Now we expect this older team to pick up 49 wins? This is not an easy task to get that many ones and last year only 2 teams manage to get there. (Pittsburgh and Vancouver). Their goaltending is also a question mark after Howard had a so so season last year after his break through rookie year.

The Wings also play in probably the toughest division in the NHL. We have a healthier Blues then last year. A Hawks team that doesn't have the stanley cup hangover that they had last year. An always tough Nashville team and an improved Jackets team. The wins won't come easy for the Wings.

I think this is without a doubt a playoff team but I doubt they get to 49 wins. I will gladly take the bet for 1 unit
#11

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Quote Originally Posted by Bs1194 View Post
Looks good. I'll be following you on the reg season. Most of your picks have adjusted too much so I'll hold off on those. Best of luck to us and all those following
Yeah Sportsbetting adjusted all their lines I had a few more leans on their numbers but I'll have to lay off now. Only a few more days until the season starts, I can't wait to see the opening numbers.
#12

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Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to win Calder +1900, 0.21* (Unibet)

I wanted to put more but this is all they allowed me to put. Bodog which I think is a way sharper book has this line at 3/1. RN-H wasn't picked 1st overall for nothing. I have heard some scout say this guy has the best vision seen in a long time. I think he plays all year with the team and should have some pretty good ice time playing for a team that is young and talented. I have a nice price on this young kid and I will take it without hesitation.


Line dropped when I put the bet but +1500 is still available. Limit is probably still very low thought.
Last edited by guil0000; 10-04-11 at 11:36 PM.
#15

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Write up for the Pittsburgh/Vancouver Game

The Canucks will still be a force this year and I expect them to finish in the top of the west. That being said management decided to not play the regulars until late in the preseason. That might do them some good later in the season but I think it might step them back to start the season. If you add the fact that they had a short summer and missing Kesler for the start of the year and I think they could start this opener a bit flat. The Pens have Malkin back and this is a team that finished over 100 points last year without him or Crosby in the line up for the majority of the year. I'm always careful when I back an eastern conference team traveling on the west coast but I think it's irrelevant that early in the year. I also like the fact that while Crosby won't be in the line up he did travel with the team and I think he will get the troops motivated for this one. What sells me this bet is the price, +140 is a bargain with this team and I don't expect to see it too often this year.