Horse Racing questions and answers

Makes his return to the oval that gave him his maiden score as well as notched him a Graded Stakes victory. All of his dirt routes feature double-digitspreads which figures to make him one to watch in stretch. On one hand he's done well to be consistently passing a lot of rivals late despite modest 4F/6Frace flows so a projected hotter pace today is to his advantage fundamentally. On the flipside, you worry how much further out of touch early might thatscenario put him today. This year's edition of the Derby features a lot of strong stretch-running candidates so the prospect of taking advantage of apotential hot pace won't be a hope relegated to his advantage alone, but rather he'd have plenty of competition looking to weave through traffic in thatevent. Does know this oval well though.

Honor Marie take

THX STR going to add Honor Marie to the 19 play.

Originally Posted by Easy-Rider 66

These first few inside slots are considered a tough draw but the running style of this one as a deep closer pretty much negates those worries for me.When it comes to getting buried behind flights, this one was going to do that anyways. Even if he he drew more to the outside, he'd be looking to work hisway over and end up in this spot anyways. With the #1 horse poised to go fast, he should get a stress-free start on the rail and save ground before thework begins of choosing whether to fight through traffic or go inside to out circling the field. When it comes to closers in general, we always consider thatfundamentally dirt racing is all about deceleration (or lack thereof) and as visually impressive as it is to see a runner overtake a field in stretch, it's rarely atrue statement they are "taking the race away" from their rivals completely against their will. It's much more likely there's an element of help involved withan honest race flow causing the better-positioned runners to be backing up. So, he can't spot this field too much leniency as the risk exists of a moreforwardly-placed runner (or more) getting brave late after getting a clean enough trip. With all that said, the $2.3 million purchase is bred and trained torelish the "classic distance" and more often than not, the Derby produces a favorable pace scenario for closers (whether or not they take advantage). Asoft pace on slop should scream forwardly-placed winner all day so the Risen Star win looks very impressive with the 56h/71h score. Stepped it up evenmore in last to trigger a DTOP and even while running fastest 4F/6F of lifetime, still had reserve in the tank to blow by rivals like they were standing stilllate. DTOP is a regressive pattern in general but can often be assessed differently on 3-year olds who are given leniency as the DTOP has a betterchance of signalling peak condition that can be more likely sustained since they are still developing runners and don't yet have an established ceiling likeolder horses do. There's probably little chance this runner isn't storming down the stretch for at least a piece.

Sierrra Leone take from predicteform

Originally Posted by Easy-Rider 66

Makes his return to the oval that gave him his maiden score as well as notched him a Graded Stakes victory. All of his dirt routes feature double-digitspreads which figures to make him one to watch in stretch. On one hand he's done well to be consistently passing a lot of rivals late despite modest 4F/6Frace flows so a projected hotter pace today is to his advantage fundamentally. On the flipside, you worry how much further out of touch early might thatscenario put him today. This year's edition of the Derby features a lot of strong stretch-running candidates so the prospect of taking advantage of apotential hot pace won't be a hope relegated to his advantage alone, but rather he'd have plenty of competition looking to weave through traffic in thatevent. Does know this oval well though.

Honor Marie take

That is the way I saw the race taking shape. You never know but the paper leans that way IMO.

Good luck with your plays EZ.

Ok STR sounds good. Good luck

Thank you STR; and GL to all who plays!!

close STR. lost BY a whisker. good call.

What a ride by Brian Hernandez!!

Originally Posted by mrginandtonic

What a ride by Brian Hernandez!!

He got through and it paid off. Great ride.
Very Nice call Mr. GandT !

Looking back at the Derby the fractions were fine early but the 1/2 went a little too slow for deep closers and the 3/4 time of 1:11 and change made it even tougher
Dornoch broke poorly and that seemed to allow the pace to not be insane.

The winner ran terrific. Got through , saved ground. Hats off to both horse and rider for running inside and moving right on cue. Also Mr . GandT who has had a couple of real nice picks in the big races lately.

Sierra Leone ran his race. The winner just got a bit too much cushion turning for home.
Sierra did his usual lugging in stuff. We knew he would . He has done it every race. Was he the best horse? Probably. But no excuses . He made his own problems and those will always be there for him to overcome it seems.
The winner took full advantage so for me, he deserved it.

Fierceness did what Fierceness does it seems. Let’s see if he doesn’t show up big next out. Have to think he will.

Both Japanese horses ran very well.
Pretty sure Japan is going to be a major player in the big name races moving forward. They are knocking on the door for sure.

All in all a very entertaining race I thought.

On to the Preakness and I’m already waiting for Mr GandT ‘s picks.
No pressure sir. Just kidding. Great job yesterday.

Originally Posted by str

Looking back at the Derby the fractions were fine early but the 1/2 went a little too slow for deep closers and the 3/4 time of 1:11 and change made it even tougher
Dornoch broke poorly and that seemed to allow the pace to not be insane.

The winner ran terrific. Got through , saved ground. Hats off to both horse and rider for running inside and moving right on cue. Also Mr . GandT who has had a couple of real nice picks in the big races lately.

Sierra Leone ran his race. The winner just got a bit too much cushion turning for home.
Sierra did his usual lugging in stuff. We knew he would . He has done it every race. Was he the best horse? Probably. But no excuses . He made his own problems and those will always be there for him to overcome it seems.
The winner took full advantage so for me, he deserved it.

Fierceness did what Fierceness does it seems. Let’s see if he doesn’t show up big next out. Have to think he will.

Both Japanese horses ran very well.
Pretty sure Japan is going to be a major player in the big name races moving forward. They are knocking on the door for sure.

All in all a very entertaining race I thought.

On to the Preakness and I’m already waiting for Mr GandT ‘s picks.
No pressure sir. Just kidding. Great job yesterday.

Thank you Sir; I wish I had put more on him; I said it after the Ark Derby where he lost to Muth and Just Steel that he is a major player for the Derby. I thought he ran better than his 3rd placed showed. Should have stick to my guts, and hammered Mystik Dan. I always thought that Sierra Leone is at a disadvantage with his closing style. Although I still made good money with him, but it was one of those occasions where you could have made a killing. But as we all know, hindsight is always 20/20. lol

As for The Preakness, I will most likely miss it since I will be on vacation with the family to Japan and Hong Kong till end of the month. I will give my opinion (most of the time are just wild guess) and hopefully will make some money. Resilience ran 6th but I think if he drew a better post, he should make the superfecta...

Lastly, I agree, I think the Japanese will be ready soon; the way they ran for the past couple of year at Breeders Cup... look out.


GL sir and as always thanking for sharing all your knowledge.

Boy oh boy has the Preakness lost it's way.

For the triple crown to stay the triple crown, these races will need to be spaced more accurately. Times change, people change, economics of horse values change.

In baseball, there were only day games, then came the lights and just like that, baseball was a night game except for the Cubs . Then, the Cubs got lights and now the day games are usually for opening day, travel purposes, logistics and holidays.

Football expanded and today they play games several days a week, and in different countries. Used to be many fewer games. Next year, probably 18 and THEN the playoffs.

Let's face reality. Owners and trainers attitudes about running every two or three weeks has changed. Maryland has to get rid of the current ownership, which is in the making, get with NY racing, and devise a strategy to rewrite the dates of the triple crown races.

I know this sounds very difficult, but umm , I have thought about it for 10 minutes tops and have come up with

First Saturday in May
First Saturday in June
And July 4th weekend

Now that wasn't so hard was it. This still leaves plenty of time for the Saratoga historic racing as well as the Breeders Cup which could slide one more week it seems.

Is this so hard ??? It still has the effort of stamina and soundness within the dates as well as more time in between races.

If Md. racing keeps it up, the Preakness will risk losing it's G-1 ranking over time. And don't think NY racing wouldn't love to eliminate the Preakness and add the Travers to the select 3 triple crown races. Have you seen the date change of the Belmont that NY racing has proposed? HELLO???

So Maryland, I think you are better than this and racing needs to catch up to the rest of the world. If not, Md. racing might just be on the clock in a not so good way. Here is hoping for the saving of a racing product I loved so much that I spent damn near everyday there for 29 years. Md. Racing. C'mon Man !

Everything changes. The sport needs to adapt like every other sport. Traditions ae great but it's a pretty simple solution as you mentioned str. Space them out.

^Agreed gentlemen. The connections of Mystik Dan on the fence about running him in the Preakness. 4 week lead from Derby and maybe rest is not an issue and he for sure would run. It tarnishes the Process a bit when the Derby winner skips the Preakness. IMO. Let's hope the powers that be listen to the trainers and change the protocols for the Triple Crown.

Originally Posted by str

Boy oh boy has the Preakness lost it's way.

For the triple crown to stay the triple crown, these races will need to be spaced more accurately. Times change, people change, economics of horse values change.

In baseball, there were only day games, then came the lights and just like that, baseball was a night game except for the Cubs . Then, the Cubs got lights and now the day games are usually for opening day, travel purposes, logistics and holidays.

Football expanded and today they play games several days a week, and in different countries. Used to be many fewer games. Next year, probably 18 and THEN the playoffs.

Let's face reality. Owners and trainers attitudes about running every two or three weeks has changed. Maryland has to get rid of the current ownership, which is in the making, get with NY racing, and devise a strategy to rewrite the dates of the triple crown races.

I know this sounds very difficult, but umm , I have thought about it for 10 minutes tops and have come up with

First Saturday in May
First Saturday in June
And July 4th weekend

Now that wasn't so hard was it. This still leaves plenty of time for the Saratoga historic racing as well as the Breeders Cup which could slide one more week it seems.

Is this so hard ??? It still has the effort of stamina and soundness within the dates as well as more time in between races.

If Md. racing keeps it up, the Preakness will risk losing it's G-1 ranking over time. And don't think NY racing wouldn't love to eliminate the Preakness and add the Travers to the select 3 triple crown races. Have you seen the date change of the Belmont that NY racing has proposed? HELLO???

So Maryland, I think you are better than this and racing needs to catch up to the rest of the world. If not, Md. racing might just be on the clock in a not so good way. Here is hoping for the saving of a racing product I loved so much that I spent damn near everyday there for 29 years. Md. Racing. C'mon Man !

agree 100% str..it hasn't been a race every 2 or 3 week game for I'd say at least 30 years..2 weeks maybe 40 or 50..mean much more if it reflected today's spacing of races and your schedule would work well..I think the series should be called something to reflect the changes ..maybe "the big 3" to reflect 3 races for 3yo..another thought if practical to do would be a compromise in timing..make the preakness 3 weeks after and keep the same spacing to the belmont
..so it means something to run again less than what's normal but not the unrealistic 2 week break..3 race series , 3 weeks apart for 3yo's..like all the 3's and maybe some marketability if they rename the series like suggested above..whatever they'd decide to call it

you may have seen that deterministic is running in the peter pan on saturday (R6 #7 @ 5-1 ml).. i think this would be the time to play off what you saw in his last race and our overall feeling about the horse..might be a little value there also ..some rain on friday
but looks like it'll be a fast track on saturday