10.-TO Password - I have no Clue on the 10 as I did not in the last Bc classic with the Japanese horse. One of these days one will win but without data, I’m lost so I will toss.
11. Forever Young - same thing here. Adding to that the difficulty of coming from Dubai that others have had, I will pass and hope this isn’t the year a Japanese horse wins.
They will at some point.
12. Track Phantom-A speed horse with burners on both sides leaving the gate, and adds Blinkers. Whew.
If he wires these it would be incredible. Or will Rosario take him back and try and lay 4th with the blinkers and get first jump around the far turn?
Too many questions I can’t answer so I will pass.
13.West Saratoga - it would take a huge step forward to compete in here.
You never know but I will pass.
14. Endlessly- Never run on the dirt. He is 5 for 6 but I will pass without a dirt effort to lean on.
15. Domestic Product- I’m not shocked if he wins. In a year with speed a plenty and solid deep closers he could be 7th through 12th early and with a clean trip why not at a big price. I think he has a better chance than his numbers might show.
16. Grand Mo The First -a win here would certainly surprise me. Doesn’t mean he can’t but I can’t see it.
17. Fierceness- Fastest horse in here when he runs. Will he with all the speed inside? As good as he is, I don’t think he will make the lead and I can’t trust him from previous races that he will not sulk a little as he has done previously. If he stalks happily it’s his to lose. But as the favorite in a race with plenty of legit contenders I will skip 3-1 and assume he plays the every other race game.
Tough to do because I see him as the best in here but he has to overcome something before I can trust him stalking. So far he has not.
18. Stronghold- very consistent and he has won over the track.
Nobody is talking about him and all he does is run. Would not shock but I will use others in my top4 picks.
19. Resilience- would be cool to see a Wood winner run big in the Derby.
Not a shock but I can’t use them all. So I will pass and hope.
my 2 leans 18/19.
20. Society Man- just too many others to consider. I’ll pass.
21.Epic Ride- in this game anything can happen but this is another one that I will not use simply because I prefer others
If I pick four horses I will do so like this
(17. Fierceness no doubt a monster but I will take a hot pace view and assume this will be an off race for the horse who I see as clearly the best.)
Top 4:
2. Sierra Leon
7.Honor Marie
4. Catching Freedom
15. Domestic Product
All deep closers.
I’m betting on a 46 or faster first 1/2 mile and a 1:09 and change or 10 flat 3/4 time. If so, I’ve got a shot.
A slow early pace and my tickets will land on the floor before they reach the stretch. Lol.
Good luck everyone. Enjoy the race.
.
These first few inside slots are considered a tough draw but the running style of this one as a deep closer pretty much negates those worries for me.When it comes to getting buried behind flights, this one was going to do that anyways. Even if he he drew more to the outside, he'd be looking to work hisway over and end up in this spot anyways. With the #1 horse poised to go fast, he should get a stress-free start on the rail and save ground before thework begins of choosing whether to fight through traffic or go inside to out circling the field. When it comes to closers in general, we always consider thatfundamentally dirt racing is all about deceleration (or lack thereof) and as visually impressive as it is to see a runner overtake a field in stretch, it's rarely atrue statement they are "taking the race away" from their rivals completely against their will. It's much more likely there's an element of help involved withan honest race flow causing the better-positioned runners to be backing up. So, he can't spot this field too much leniency as the risk exists of a moreforwardly-placed runner (or more) getting brave late after getting a clean enough trip. With all that said, the $2.3 million purchase is bred and trained torelish the "classic distance" and more often than not, the Derby produces a favorable pace scenario for closers (whether or not they take advantage). Asoft pace on slop should scream forwardly-placed winner all day so the Risen Star win looks very impressive with the 56h/71h score. Stepped it up evenmore in last to trigger a DTOP and even while running fastest 4F/6F of lifetime, still had reserve in the tank to blow by rivals like they were standing stilllate. DTOP is a regressive pattern in general but can often be assessed differently on 3-year olds who are given leniency as the DTOP has a betterchance of signalling peak condition that can be more likely sustained since they are still developing runners and don't yet have an established ceiling likeolder horses do. There's probably little chance this runner isn't storming down the stretch for at least a piece.
Sierrra Leone take from predicteform
