I second using R (might take a little effort to learn if you haven't used it before, but should be well worth it), and that looks like a very handy package HH. I can't believe I've never checked the R package repositories for anything similar!Looks like there's some NBA and MLB and NFL.
holy crap... looks like I'm not getting any actual work done for a while now
can anyone post a video of predicting possibilities for soccer matches with R?
Nivi, guys like Heehaw + Peace are doing a very good job in this thread. I can't pin-point the link, but the Poisson Dist output is a good start. Here is the basic premise:Originally Posted by nivi
can anyone post a video of predicting possibilities for soccer matches with R?
*We need to get to the point where we project TWO NUMBERS, E (HomeGoals) and E (AwayGoals). if we assume two INDEPENDENT Poisson distibutions...then everything else falls out. Think of it like two columns:
F(0), F(1), F(2), etc. From that we get f(0), f(1), f(2) etc. Do that for both Home + Away. We can then calculate our Home Wins, Away Wins etc. This is a very good starting point.
And I echo Peace's note above. Read Nate Silver's book. He's not going to give u a license to print money...but it's a very good starting point.
peacebyinches gave ChuckyTheGoat 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.
It's a link u posted in another thread:
https://annabet.com/en/poissoned/
Navigate those tabs on the top. Poisson is a really good basic approach for soccer game analysis.
The real question is whether your INPUT will be close to correct. The output from that link is certainly good, if not a little confusing to look at.
yeah this calculator looks dopeIt's a link u posted in another thread:
https://annabet.com/en/poissoned/
Navigate those tabs on the top. Poisson is a really good basic approach for soccer game analysis.
The real question is whether your INPUT will be close to correct. The output from that link is certainly good, if not a little confusing to look at.
but i really have no idea how to use it
here is a more simple one
https://sinceawin.com/data/tools/poisson
I'll read that next.Nate Silver (of fivethirtyeight.com) wrote an entire (very accessible) book on how it applies to sports betting, poker, finance, politics, weather, and even earthquakes called 'The signal and the noise'. It's a great place to start learning about statistics that is an easy read, not math intense, and entertaining in my opinion. If you prefer a more academic place to start there are a ton of cheap text books that show you the math behind the madness, such as this.
Thx.
can anyone post a video of predicting possibilities for soccer matches with R?
bump
this
HI EMT - Combato here. What is the latest from your CLV baseball system thus far. We are into August now. Curious how it has gone since I checked out
