What's preferred? Yield or ROI

I don't agree. The most important thing to evaluate a tipster is the yield or ROI. Always.

Following your reasoning I can say that we pay the bills with money, not with units. Units are another stat like yield and win rate. In your example the one who has won 10 units may be has made more money than who has won 14 units. And of course I prefer the first case.

It's curious how the US players make the units the more important and don't care about yield. It's really annoying cause in rest of the world is the yield which determinate how good a tipster is.

For example, I'm looking for some good handicapper to follow and bet in US sports but it's impossible. All the stats I found are something like "180-120 (60%) +35 units". WTF? Who cares about his units and win rate? Without yield it's impossible to know if he is a profitable tipster or not.

I found a really interesting handicapper with stats pretty similar to 650-250 (72%) +10000units. I thought he should be a money machine, awesome. But making a more detailed research of his historical I realized he has a 3% yield. Mediocre tipster. And people paying 500$ for him. Off course, he has a lot of units....

Sorry for my english.

3% is not at all mediocre if it is against real widely available lines. almost no one does better than that over the long haul, although 900 picks is a fairly small sample size so could be due to luck.

most everyone i know uses roi the way you are describing yield, the return on the individual bets without accounting for bankroll growth.

Originally Posted by skrtelfan

3% is not at all mediocre if it is against real widely available lines. almost no one does better than that over the long haul, although 900 picks is a fairly small sample size so could be due to luck.

most everyone i know uses roi the way you are describing yield, the return on the individual bets without accounting for bankroll growth.

Well, I consider a good tipster who have between 10-30% yield. All wich I follow have this yield. Ok, 3% isn't mediocre if you don't want to call it this way but is a really low yield and it's not worht to follow.

And yes, ROI and yield are pretty the same.

Originally Posted by Raizen

Well, I consider a good tipster who have between 10-30% yield.

Those records will have been faked, or are simply random (ie not a big enough sample size).

Originally Posted by HeeeHAWWWW

Those records will have been faked, or are simply random (ie not a big enough sample size).

No man, those records exist, I have been following many tipsters with it for 3-4 years....

About the sample size, some people consider it's all about the number of picks. I think that when a tipster is specialized in a particular leage it's impossible to wait until he have 3000-5000 picks, it may take 10 years to achieve this number. I think in this cases the time is also important, about 2-3 season will be enough to evaluate a tipster, even he have only 300-400 picks.

Originally Posted by Raizen

No man, those records exist, I have been following many tipsters with it for 3-4 years....

About the sample size, some people consider it's all about the number of picks. I think that when a tipster is specialized in a particular leage it's impossible to wait until he have 3000-5000 picks, it may take 10 years to achieve this number. I think in this cases the time is also important, about 2-3 season will be enough to evaluate a tipster, even he have only 300-400 picks.

Put it this way: 400 bets at 20% roi using half-Kelly turns a thousand bucks into a mean of $7 million. Using the median, you would quadruple your bankroll every 82 bets.

Originally Posted by HeeeHAWWWW

Put it this way: 400 bets at 20% roi using half-Kelly turns a thousand bucks into a mean of $7 million.

Yield/ROI is the profit on the investment. If your stake average are 2 units, in 400 bets you have staked 800 units. In this 400 bets you have a net profit of 100 units. Your yield will be 12.5% and your ROI 112.5%. ROI consider all the returned and yield only the net profit.

the guy with the lower roi might just be squeezing out more value by finding more bets that are less profitable whereas the guy with the higher roi is leaving some money on the table.

At the end of the day, (or month) what really matters is..How much your bankroll is increased. It's definetely another subject but wanted to say anyway: DON'T WITHDRAW MONEY OFTEN. DON'T WITHDRAW ANY MONEY FROM YOUR BANKROLL 'TIL YOU REACH YOUR TARGET! ALWAYS REINVEST YOUR PROFITS!!

I can't stress it enough!

The snow ball thing you know. The bigger the bankroll is, more profits..MORE POWER!!

Guys, about yield/roi thing. I think this way. It doesn't mean this is the universal truth. You may be disagree with me, I respect you. It's your opinion your after all. But my truth is this. I'm paying the bills with UNITS. I'm even paying my mortgage with my fukking units.

I wish everyone a profitable sunday. May Lady Luck Be With You!

Originally Posted by Raizen

No man, those records exist, I have been following many tipsters with it for 3-4 years....

About the sample size, some people consider it's all about the number of picks. I think that when a tipster is specialized in a particular leage it's impossible to wait until he have 3000-5000 picks, it may take 10 years to achieve this number. I think in this cases the time is also important, about 2-3 season will be enough to evaluate a tipster, even he have only 300-400 picks.

Yes, some people do consider a sample size to be the most important factor when evaluating prediction results.
And these people are right.

According to the law of small numbers, "short term" is a land of unbelievable extremes and yet, short term variance is commonly and drastically underestimated.

Universe does not care how long you have to wait till you get an appropriate number.
You not going to get any preferential treatment just because you are on a big hurry to get rich.
If you chose to chase most spectacular short term results you'll be chasing luckiest, not the best.
That's given.

Moreover, the best would not be advertising or fighting for your attention either, but that's another story.

Originally Posted by Inspirited

the guy with the lower roi might just be squeezing out more value by finding more bets that are less profitable whereas the guy with the higher roi is leaving some money on the table.

In a comparation of both that's true. But in terms of following them, you will adapt their stake average at what you want. In an equitable adaptation who will bring you more profit is who will have more yield even with less picks.

Originally Posted by Sawyer

At the end of the day, (or month) what really matters is..How much your bankroll is increased. It's definetely another subject but wanted to say anyway: DON'T WITHDRAW MONEY OFTEN. DON'T WITHDRAW ANY MONEY FROM YOUR BANKROLL 'TIL YOU REACH YOUR TARGET! ALWAYS REINVEST YOUR PROFITS!!

I can't stress it enough!

The snow ball thing you know. The bigger the bankroll is, more profits..MORE POWER!!

Guys, about yield/roi thing. I think this way. It doesn't mean this is the universal truth. You may be disagree with me, I respect you. It's your opinion your after all. But my truth is this. I'm paying the bills with UNITS. I'm even paying my mortgage with my fukking units.

I wish everyone a profitable sunday. May Lady Luck Be With You!

Let me put one last example:

Two fixed-term deposits with no limit investment:

a) 9% interest rate

b) 5% interest rate

It's obvious that everybody would choose the option "a", but you are saying that will choose the "b" and put the double money that people are depositing in "a" for win more than them. Good luck.

Originally Posted by hutennis

Yes, some people do consider a sample size to be the most important factor when evaluating prediction results.
And these people are right.

According to the law of small numbers, "short term" is a land of unbelievable extremes and yet, short term variance is commonly and drastically underestimated.

Universe does not care how long you have to wait till you get an appropriate number.
You not going to get any preferential treatment just because you are on a big hurry to get rich.
If you chose to chase most spectacular short term results you'll be chasing luckiest, not the best.
That's given.

Moreover, the best would not be advertising or fighting for your attention either, but that's another story.

As I said the time is another important factor. For example:

If I make one bet each month, and after 30 years I have 360 picks and 30% yield. Would you say that may be I've been lucky for 30 years?

And I'm who advise you. I can't believe that in a big fourm like this nobody knwos how to follow tipsters and make money even with no sports knowledge. It's shocking.

Originally Posted by Raizen

As I said the time is another important factor.

You said it - OK.
I'm not sure why you did and I certainly don't agree.

Time is an arbitrary measure and is completely useless for these types of evaluations.

For example:

If I make one bet each month, and after 30 years I have 360 picks and 30% yield. Would you say that may be I've been lucky for 30 years?

I absolutely would say it and you most certainly were lucky for 30 years.
Or, rather, over 360 flips (picks, tries...). Was it over 30 years, weeks or seconds does not matter.

And I'm who advise you.

Don;t worry, you don't.
You just exhibit a very common misunderstanding of a fairly simple subject.

I can't believe that in a big fourm like this nobody knwos how to follow tipsters and make money even with no sports knowledge. It's shocking.

That is, probably, not because nobody knows, but b/c pretty much everyone is totally aware that following tipsters and making money is oxymoron.
This is true, weather it is shocking to you or not.

Let me put one last example:

Two fixed-term deposits with no limit investment:

a) 9% interest rate

b) 5% interest rate

It's obvious that everybody would choose the option "a", but you are saying that will choose the "b" and put the double money that people are depositing in "a" for win more than them. Good luck.

If you believe, that numbers shown by tipster today are as guaranteed to stay the same in a future as interest rate on your CD (thus making tipster and CD basically the same thing in your mind) - then good luck to you.You gonna need a lot of it.

Sorry hutennis but my english is really poor and keep a conversation with technicals terms is an extra effort for me so I will leave here the conversation.

Just one point, I'm living of this (following tipsters) since 4 years and know a lot of people also and we use this methods I've described. Here in europe is really common. It's curious how in US is really difference.

I disagree with you but anyway thank you for your correct debate. Good luck in future