Arkansas vs K State: What's the better play here?

OK Bettors,
the line stands at Arkansas -7.5 at the moment. I think Arkansas takes the game BUT I think the better play here is taking the TT for the Hogs of 36 pts. K State should be able to hang in there and possiby get a back-door cover with that line slightly over one TD. Arkansas, with their very effective QB and his two WR's should match up well against a K State team that does not defend the pass very well. Thoughts? How are you gonna approach this matchup?

Kst won or lost by only a few against some good teams. Only real let down was against RGIII. And don't see Ark. QB being that mobile. Snyder should have them ready to play

Arkansas put 44 on S. Carolina and Miss. State....2 teams with a much better defense and team speed than K-State. South Carolina will prob put atleast 4-5 guys on that D in the NFL. Bill Snyder is a great coach & they've had a great year but their offense is too dependent on Klein and they won't be able to keep pace. I look at the Oklahoma beatdown of K-State (58-17) where Landry throws 5 tds and K-State just didn't have the passing game to stay close. I'm thinking the crowd in Dallas will be atleast 80% Arkansas as well.

Arkansas 41 K-State 24

Over

I've got Ark -7.5 and the Over.

Originally Posted by shopbar picks

Kst won or lost by only a few against some good teams. Only real let down was against RGIII. And don't see Ark. QB being that mobile. Snyder should have them ready to play

Lost 58-17 against OU and beat Baylor

I just feel like the competition has been tougher for Arkansas. I throw out the win K State had against Baylor because that team, despite all their many talents on offense, absolutely stinks on ice when it comes to their defense. Any team should be able to rack up points against them really (heck, even the Huskies who weren't good at all this year took them to the brink in their Bowl game). I think the Hogs take it by 10 to 14 pts. While K State has talent it's mostly on their QB, whereas Arkansas has more talent in more places. Arkansas a near top #10 passing team nationwide vs a passing defense that is one of the worst in the country at #115th. Should be another good game all the same. The clock strikes midnight on K State's great season Friday night.

Back to my original question now: is the Arkansas TT a solid bet at 36 pts?

Problem is Arkansas has been brutal on the road, so it depends if it will really be like a home game for them or not.

Originally Posted by DJ Dana

I just feel like the competition has been tougher for Arkansas. I throw out the win K State had against Baylor because that team, despite all their many talents on offense, absolutely stinks on ice when it comes to their defense. Any team should be able to rack up points against them really (heck, even the Huskies who weren't good at all this year took them to the brink in their Bowl game). I think the Hogs take it by 10 to 14 pts. While K State has talent it's mostly on their QB, whereas Arkansas has more talent in more places. Arkansas a near top #10 passing team nationwide vs a passing defense that is one of the worst in the country at #115th. Should be another good game all the same. The clock strikes midnight on K State's great season Friday night.

Back to my original question now: is the Arkansas TT a solid bet at 36 pts?

I like Arkansas Over 36.....kicking around if thats a better play than the Over or Arkansas -7.5? I've got Arkansas in some teasers so far but haven't committed to anything else yet. It seems like if the Razorbacks Over 36 is a play then so is Arkansas and Over 63. To answer the other guys question about the crowd....Arkansas is right next to Texas and its a state school. The place will be all SOOOOOOEEEEEEEE all night!!

the only thing that worries me is Bill Snyder is magic. I think Arkansas takes the game but I'm leaning K-State +7.5...might wait til tomorrow see if there is any movement.

Originally Posted by plc44

the only thing that worries me is Bill Snyder is magic. I think Arkansas takes the game but I'm leaning K-State +7.5...might wait til tomorrow see if there is any movement.

There's no such thing as magic.

Originally Posted by DJ Dana

OK Bettors,
the line stands at Arkansas -7.5 at the moment. I think Arkansas takes the game BUT I think the better play here is taking the TT for the Hogs of 36 pts. K State should be able to hang in there and possiby get a back-door cover with that line slightly over one TD. Arkansas, with their very effective QB and his two WR's should match up well against a K State team that does not defend the pass very well. Thoughts? How are you gonna approach this matchup?

Why not bet the over 63.5 or 63?

Game could end up 35-31 and your bet would be fukked.

Originally Posted by convick

Why not bet the over 63.5 or 63?

Game could end up 35-31 and your bet would be fukked.

Well, I haven't bet anything yet amigo. That was my point in starting the thread, right? I still like Arkansas' top passing game putting up points against a K State team that has a very bad pass defense (it's ranked # 105 coming into this game or somewhere at the very, very bottom).

Thanks for the feedback all the same. And yes, I've been considering the over in this one as well.

the pig suks. the only team they beat this year was south carolina at home they pulled a miracle to beat vandy and the rest of their wins i wouldnt give any credence to whatsoever.the most overated team in top 25 this year. k state will kik the pig silly. im down huge on mony line with k state

This game just moved to Ark - 8 at my book. A little surprised that the total has basically just sat at 63. I feel that number will move higher before kickoff.

I originally liked Arkansas. Don't think I can lay over a touchdown. Both teams have been good to me, but I rarely take ARK on the road. The big stat that is like a red light is highlighted below.

KSU 4-1 SU/5-0 ATS ON THE ROAD (KSU 7-1 ATS DOG)

ARK 3-2 SU/1-4 ATS ON THE ROAD (ARK 6-3 AS A FAV)

KSU lost to OK and OK ST. The only Defense that really stopped ARK was ALA + LSU.

Wilson was impressive this year and had some big shoes to fill following Mallet. He can sling it.

Klein was a big surprise and is a threat running and passing. I watched a lot of their games and I wasn't sure he was going to make it through season. He took a lot of hits and D's keyed on him. Snyder seemed to be careful with him towards the end of the season and will let him run wild in this bowl. KST has been money this year covering 9 of 11 with one miss by 4 points.

On the otherhand, not sure if I want to go against that air attack of Ark. They are loaded at wide receiver + have 3 solid RB's.

I'm back and forth on this game. Want to take ARK. Like the team, but over a TD seems to generous and they can struggle on the road. KSU is in favored dog role, but damn they pulled some of those out of their hat. Ark will do everything they can to shut down Klein. ARK seems to have more weapons and KSU could have their hands full.

I think I will hit the over 63 before it moves higher. All over the place with other options. Considered teasing ARK (6) points with the over . That would be ARK under a field goal = ARK -2 / ARK ov + 57 ? Then again, something keeps telling me to just put the majority of my cash on the OV 63. Root for scores and put a fraction of my wager on KSU moneyline + 260. Would anyone really be shocked it KSU won this game?

Interested to see what others think. Vegas is showing a High % on over , but it hasn't moved. Seen a couple 63.5's but thats about it.

Gl