Vaughany's MMA Picks...

Picks: Garza and Valencia
Why: I would say a good rule of thumb is wrestler/grapplers beat pure strikers 75% of the time. Garza ia +140 and Valencia is +160. I just need one of thse two srestler/grappling guys to win, to come out ahead.

Garza's wrestling is poor and he got soundly out-grappled by Zhang who's not a particularly good grappler (despite how they're hyping him up).

Also, Menjivar isn't a pure striker. I wouldn't be surprised to see him tap Valencia.

true, but valencia is a better wresterl. Obviously Menjivar and Valencia are not great fighters, but i always go w/ wrestlers esp if they are above a +120. Menjivar definitely has a sumbission game, so Valencia needs to be careful. Having said that, most of Valencia's losses came to the top dogs, and Menjivar is not a top dog. At +160, its a good bet.

Garza is not a great wrestler by any means but hes trained with minnestoa wrestling crew w/ sherk + volkmann and hes a good sub guy. He's got a lot more reach than Yves, so Yves needs to come in as hes a pure striker. Once again, two average fighters that can win on any given day. +135 + grappler seals the deal for me when it comes to a bet.

Originally Posted by aznufcguy

Pick: Bocek to win straight up
Why: People say Henderson is not submittable, but yet he always get himself caught in submission attempts. That's dangerous against a guy like Bocek, who is probably a top 5 UFC BBJ Lightweight guy in terms of functional BBJ. Henderson' s striking is a little better than Boceks, but Bocek has a 4 inch reach advantage which means Henderson needs to come in to strike, and this allows Bocek to get takedowns easier. Given near Even odds, Bocek.

Pick: Bocek and Henderson not a decision
Why: At+120, decent bet. Both guys go for a lot of submission attempts, and both guys are not known to do boring Couture Clinching on the fence or Fitch actionless on top action. I see a finish over a decision 50% of the time between these two, so +120 is good odds.

Pick: Ellenberger
Why: Pierson, despite having a wrestling background, did not use his wrestling a lot against Riddle. In fact, he outstruck Riddle. Ellenberger is a take down machine and is relentless w/ G+P. Plus Riddle did quite well in the 2nd half of the fight as he probably was caught off guard against a Pierson that people did not scount since that was his 1st time in the UFC. Pierson also gassed, whereas Ellenberger is in great shape despite taking this on 2 weeks notice. Odds aren't great at -200, but I actually think this is an easy fight for Ellenberger.

Pick: Patrick
Why: Roberts has some Gracie hype on him, but his striking is mediocre. I would say both guys' jiu-jitsu cancel out, and Patrick actually took down Wilks with ease and completed outgrappled him. Patrick has better striking, and has better gas tank. Canada crowd will help. At -150, not bad odds.

Picks: Garza and Valencia
Why: I would say a good rule of thumb is wrestler/grapplers beat pure strikers 75% of the time. Garza ia +140 and Valencia is +160. I just need one of thse two srestler/grappling guys to win, to come out ahead.

hope you`re right about ellenberger...but after looking hard at this, i suspect that this will be a more difficult stand-up fight (early) than many think....pierson throws a straight left hand from a lefty stance that seems to find the mark pretty consistently.....

and he`s a little longer than elleneberger....

i`m thinking that ellenberger will take over as the fight progresses,but it`s only 3 rounds and in canada,so it could be a bit dicey if it goes to decision.....

still,i took some ellenberger at -170....pierson has been beaten by much lesser guys than ellenberger...and beating a one-dimensional riddle with his stand-up isn`t a monster accomplishment.....

hopefully the home crowd won`t goose a herculean effort out of pierson...

true, but valencia is a better wresterl. Obviously Menjivar and Valencia are not great fighters, but i always go w/ wrestlers esp if they are above a +120. Menjivar definitely has a sumbission game, so Valencia needs to be careful. Having said that, most of Valencia's losses came to the top dogs, and Menjivar is not a top dog. At +160, its a good bet.

Are you kidding me? If Menjivar starts putting together smart game plans, you're looking at a super elite fighter at 135. The reason he's racked up so many losses in the past is because he's always been too keen to fight his opponents in their specialist areas. That doesn't apply too much in this instance, though: Menjivar is better on the feet, and the moment Valencia takes him down, Menjivar will be looking for the submission.

Garza is not a great wrestler by any means but hes trained with minnestoa wrestling crew w/ sherk + volkmann and hes a good sub guy. He's got a lot more reach than Yves, so Yves needs to come in as hes a pure striker. Once again, two average fighters that can win on any given day. +135 + grappler seals the deal for me when it comes to a bet.

But he's not a good grappler, and - regardless of who he trains with - his wrestling is still extremely deficient.

His best chance of victory is in the stand-up given the big reach advantage in my opinion. Even then, I don't like his chances too much. He's a bit frail and I think he'll wilt under Jabouin's pressure.

Tonights the night!

i like yves jabouin quickest tko prop

Originally Posted by Mr.Kitty

Tonights the night!

Should be awesome, what plays u got? Av u taken Machida KO of the Night prop? Im gonna be taking it at +500

Originally Posted by corcoran65

i like yves jabouin quickest tko prop

Yeah reasonable value in it, but I think Jensen is better value at +1500. Jabouin is a technical stand-up fighter who likes to move a lot, throw a lot of leg kicks and pick apart his opponent so I think if he does finish Garza it would be later on in the fight - second or third round.

Originally Posted by Ladle

Are you kidding me? If Menjivar starts putting together smart game plans, you're looking at a super elite fighter at 135. The reason he's racked up so many losses in the past is because he's always been too keen to fight his opponents in their specialist areas. That doesn't apply too much in this instance, though: Menjivar is better on the feet, and the moment Valencia takes him down, Menjivar will be looking for the submission.

Yeah Menjivar could be legit for sure. Although Valencia might be perceived to be the better wrestler I wouldnt be surprised if he struggles to get Menjivar down (unless Menjivar is too flashy with the spinning backfists etc...), as Menjivar should have a size advantage - Valencia could fight at 125 while Menjivar was fighting GSP at 170 years ago! Also training at Tristar with Zahabi makes me think his gameplanning will improve considerably. Moreover, Valencia looked poor against Torres.

Originally Posted by rocky mattioli

hope you`re right about ellenberger...but after looking hard at this, i suspect that this will be a more difficult stand-up fight (early) than many think....pierson throws a straight left hand from a lefty stance that seems to find the mark pretty consistently.....

and he`s a little longer than elleneberger....

i`m thinking that ellenberger will take over as the fight progresses,but it`s only 3 rounds and in canada,so it could be a bit dicey if it goes to decision.....

still,i took some ellenberger at -170....pierson has been beaten by much lesser guys than ellenberger...and beating a one-dimensional riddle with his stand-up isn`t a monster accomplishment.....

hopefully the home crowd won`t goose a herculean effort out of pierson...

Good points...I agree that Pierson will be a lot tougher then many are expecting, could actually have better grappling than Ellenberger. Im still considering Fight to go distance and Ellenberger by TKO/KO play.

Originally Posted by Vaughany

Should be awesome, what plays u got? Av u taken Machida KO of the Night prop? Im gonna be taking it at +500

For tonight I got the following:

Machida by KO/TKO @ +138, 3 units

Ivan Menjivar @ -142, 2 units

Think I wanna add something more but I dont know what at the moment. Maybe Menjivar/Valencia FOTN, Aldo/Hominick FOTN, still looking at those. Who do you like for the FOTN?
I dident play Machida KO of the Night because if either Aldo/Hominick or GSP also wins by KO/TKO then I think they are more likely to win it. And it would be brutal if Machida wins by KO/TKO but dont win KotN.

Good luck tonight mate

Originally Posted by Mr.Kitty

For tonight I got the following:

Machida by KO/TKO @ +138, 3 units

Ivan Menjivar @ -142, 2 units

Think I wanna add something more but I dont know what at the moment. Maybe Menjivar/Valencia FOTN, Aldo/Hominick FOTN, still looking at those. Who do you like for the FOTN?
I dident play Machida KO of the Night because if either Aldo/Hominick or GSP also wins by KO/TKO then I think they are more likely to win it. And it would be brutal if Machida wins by KO/TKO but dont win KotN.

Good luck tonight mate

Great plays

I like Hominick/Aldo FOTN as well, cant rule out Diaz/Macdonald tho. I've gone for Machida KO of the Night and Aldo KO of the Night, just gotta hope tht one of them gets it. Might even add GSP KO of the Night as well as have I've got a risk free arb on fight going distance/not going distance.

Good luck tonight! Aldo is the only major juice I feel comfortable with. Ellenberger and Diaz are other large plays for myself. GL!

Final Summary of UFC 129 Plays:


12.6 units on GSP/Shields to go the distance at -114 to win 11.025 units;

6.157 units on GSP/Shields to not go the distance at +205 to win 12.622 units;

7.2 units on GSP/Shields to go the distance at -114 to win 6.3 units;

6.157 units on GSP/Shields to not go the distance at +175 to win 10.775 units;


17.512 units on Not Machida by decision at -286 to win 6.123 units;

5.1 units on Machida by decision at +350 to win 17.85 units;

14.695 units on Not Machida by decision at -240 to win 6.123 units;

4.2 units on Machida by decision at +350 to win 14.7 units;


15.726 units on Ellenberger/Pierson to go the distance at -105 to win 14.977 units;

14.8 units on Ellenberger/Pierson to not go the distance at +125 to win 18.5 units;


2.667 units on Henderson by TKO/KO or Decision at +187.5 to win 5 units;

2.5 units on Bocek at +110 to win 2.75 units;


5.667 units on Bocek/Henderson to go the distance at Evens to win 5.667 units;

5.5 units on Bocek/Henderson to not go the distance at +110 to win 6.05 units;


0.288 units on Macdonald by decision at +500 to win 1.44 units;


0.267 units on Aldo Submission of the Night at +1800 to win 4.806 units;


0.066 units on Shields Submission of the Night at +2500 to win 1.65 units;


2.006 units on Jensen/MacDonald to not go the distance at -150 to win 1.337 units;


1.359 units on Patrick/Roberts to go the distance at Evens to win 1.359 units;


0.639 units on Machida/Couture to go the distance at +137.5 to win 0.879 units;


1 unit on Machida by TKO/KO at +125 to win 1.25 units;


1 unit on GSP by decision at +120 to win 1.2 units;


5 units on Machida by TKO/KO or decision at -150 to win 3.462 units;


2.727 units on Diaz/Macdonald to go the distance at +150 to win 4.091 units;


1.4 units on Aldo KO of the Night at +500 to win 7 units;


3.6 units on Machida KO of the Night at +550 to win 19.8 units;


0.3 units on Jensen Quickest TKO/KO of the Night at +1500 to win 4.493 units;


4.05 units on Menjivar at -135 to win 3 units;

5 units on Menjivar at -143 to win 3.5 units;


Parlay: 8.897 units on Aldo & GSP to win 4.385 units;


0.599 units on Aldo by submission at +1200 to win 7.189 units.

Garza won! Pretty easy too! As i predicted - reach grappling generally wins! Good luck everyone!