U put "Couture get's KO'd. definitely" but then say Couture inside the distance?Originally Posted by ufcmma36
I called this awhile back definitely hope Im right
hmm i like your machida tko and fight to go the distance hedge.
nog dropped couture twice and didnt finish him. The value is on Couture but if machida wins I defiantly see it being a decision. Machida by ko is very slim because Couture thought he had better boxing then Nog and tried to trade and sat in the pocket for two rounds. Couture is going to pretty copy and paste the game plan from the Vera fight for this one. However I actually think Vera has better TDD then Machida. Machida could sweep Randy on the ground but If Randy gets him down (which I think he will) I can see Machida being stuck there for almost the whole round. I got money down on Couture at +300.
Yeah but Nog didn't finish him because he made the mistake of going for the submission in the first round even though Randy was a sittin duck waiting to be finished with strikes.nog dropped couture twice and didnt finish him. The value is on Couture but if machida wins I defiantly see it being a decision. Machida by ko is very slim because Couture thought he had better boxing then Nog and tried to trade and sat in the pocket for two rounds. Couture is going to pretty copy and paste the game plan from the Vera fight for this one. However I actually think Vera has better TDD then Machida. Machida could sweep Randy on the ground but If Randy gets him down (which I think he will) I can see Machida being stuck there for almost the whole round. I got money down on Couture at +300.
I somewhat agree with sideloaded, I think Couture chose to trade with Nog (though I disagree that he did so because he thought he had better boxing, probably just didn't like his chances in Nog's guard), and that he won't do so with Machida.
Beauty of MMA is that he doesn't have to engage Machida with stand up, if he doesn't want to. I have little doubt that he would get KO'd if he fought that fight, but its going to be awfully difficult for Machida to counter if Couture engages him in a wrestling match.
Again I agree with sideloaded, the value is on Couture, so either that or no bet.
Adding:
3.049 units on Diaz/Macdonald to go the distance at +120 to win 3.659 units.
Yeah he was cautious of Nog's guard I think, there was a moment early in first round wer it went to ground (not sure if Nog pulled guard) and Randy just got back up.I somewhat agree with sideloaded, I think Couture chose to trade with Nog (though I disagree that he did so because he thought he had better boxing, probably just didn't like his chances in Nog's guard), and that he won't do so with Machida.
Beauty of MMA is that he doesn't have to engage Machida with stand up, if he doesn't want to. I have little doubt that he would get KO'd if he fought that fight, but its going to be awfully difficult for Machida to counter if Couture engages him in a wrestling match.
Again I agree with sideloaded, the value is on Couture, so either that or no bet.
It wouldn't hurt to take another look at MacDonald, he's still has somethings to work on but his grappling is nice.
Yeah I need to re-watch his fights before I make any rash decisions!
What do think about Randy/Machida... do u agree that he'll be elusive enough and have good enough grappling to resist a COuture/Vera situation? The way he tossed Thiago Silva around makes me think he'll be comfortable with Randy even if he does get tied up against the cage.
I'm still working on my thoughts about the Couture/Machida fight, a couple of variables here including Machida's fighting style and the fact this is supposed to be Randy's last fight. This is a retirement fight and that in itself raises some major red flags for me.
I think any bets on Couture should be Couture wins by DEC. I don't think he has any way to finish Machida and I could see a 3 round cage hump.
I agree with The Hoff.
Your current hedge looks extremely good I must add, but not having access to those lines I am trying to find my own way to make money off this fight.
DId you see all 5 undercard fights on facebook now! Good stuff by Dana
Sorry I wasnt all that clear I meant if he stands with him he definitely will get KO'd, him knowing that Im sure its not his gameplan to just stand in front of him and bang. I seem Randy smothering him up against the cage, maybe a 3rd rd. TKO?U put "Couture get's KO'd. definitely" but then say Couture inside the distance?
Randys not finishing anybody. Are you serious? Wtf. Machida inside the distance is the play.
Sorry I wasnt all that clear I meant if he stands with him he definitely will get KO'd, him knowing that Im sure its not his gameplan to just stand in front of him and bang. I seem Randy smothering him up against the cage, maybe a 3rd rd. TKO?It's not impossible but I highly doubt Randy finishes Machida. Can't knock anybody for playin Couture by decision tho, I think it's second most likely outcome after Machida by TKO/KO.Randys not finishing anybody. Are you serious? Wtf. Machida inside the distance is the play.
Id say 3rd most likely after Machida by decision. Lets be serious, throw the name out the window, he's pushing 50. He's human. He's fighting a top guy. He should've lost to Vera a few years ago. He's not beating Machida. Ufc is using him to build Machida back up. The fact that he's hanging up the gloves shows the motivation for him is gone also.
