Vaughany's MMA Picks...

Originally Posted by omalley21

I like Page inside distance too. I also agree about getting the cheap seats at events. Your watchin the screen either way.

Do you ever pass up on an arb oppurtunity? I see no way Kampmann sanchez doesnt go the distance. If I were to arb out, I would take kampmann inside the distance because diego isnt finishing him.

Yeah when Im very confident in the play I'll pass it up..as is the case with this Sanchez/Kampmann fight. I've got 10 units at risk at moment, if the "Not go the distance" goes back up to +230 or better I might arb out again but I'll probly stick with it as I see it goin to decision at least 80% the time. I'll also resist arbing the Weidman play.

Diamiond actually does have prop bets, they just normally arent up till the day before or the day of the event. They have ko of the night, fight of the night, by dec, quickest sub, etc...

Page could catch Bowels but more likely tht Bowels chokes out Page. And Sanchez/Kampmann to decision of course.

Originally Posted by The HOFF

What do you think about Yang. I know -240 is a bit steep, but this looks like Zhang's fight at 127. Asian fighter that the UFC wants to get a win. I think it's worth a unit or two.

I'd be careful fading any one of Greg's boys to foreign indy circuit talent. Said it.

Originally Posted by jacktheknife

I'd be careful fading any one of Greg's boys to foreign indy circuit talent. Said it.

I thought I may have read an article the other day that indicated that the "Grimsdale Reaper" hadn't been workin with Jackson that much, that he'd switched up his camp quite a lot? Might be wrong tho!

Originally Posted by Vaughany

UFC Live on Versus 3 Plays:


0.5 units on Tavares/Roller to go to decision at +125 to win 0.625 units;

0.084 units on Roller by TKO/KO at +1000 to win 0.84 units;
6.75 units on Weidman at -135 to win 5 units;
2 units on Palhares at -180 to win 1.11 units;
10 units on Sanchez/Kampmann to go to decision at -167 to win 6 units;
13.529 units on Sanchez/Kampmann to go to decision at -167 to win 8.117 units;

6.15 units on Sanchez/Kampmann to not go to decision at +220 to win 13.53 units;


2.795 units on Bowles/Page to go to decision at +325 to win 9.084 units (Looking to arb this one);


Strikeforce: Columbus Play:

1.4 units on Rafael Cavalcante at +225 to win 3.15 units.

Been out of the loop since Thursday as been on a four-day drinking binge with buddies! Missed the UFC Versus 3 and Strikeforce event, pissed because I didnt make half the bets that I planned on doing Wanted to take Bowles by submission, and add more to Palhares play and add Dongi to a few parlays but never got the chance to do it! Don't regret the play on Cavalcante, at +225 it was too good to pass up on. Ah well on to the next one!

UFC Live on Versus 3 Review:

Total stake: 41.808 units


Total return: 53.43 units

Profit: +11.622 units



Strikeforce: Columbus Review:

Total stake: 1.4 units

Loss: -1.4 units


Overall for both events:


Single outright plays: +4.71 units (Palhares, Weidman, Cavalcante)

Props without arbing: +3.545 units

Arbs: +1.967



Total Profit for UFC Versus 3 and Strikeforce: Columbus: +10.222 units

Originally Posted by Vaughany

Been out of the loop since Thursday as been on a four-day drinking binge with buddies! Missed the UFC Versus 3 and Strikeforce event, pissed because I didnt make half the bets that I planned on doing Wanted to take Bowles by submission, and add more to Palhares play and add Dongi to a few parlays but never got the chance to do it! Don't regret the play on Cavalcante, at +225 it was too good to pass up on. Ah well on to the next one!

UFC Live on Versus 3 Review:

Total stake: 41.808 units


Total return: 53.43 units

Profit: +11.622 units



Strikeforce: Columbus Review:

Total stake: 1.4 units

Loss: -1.4 units


Overall for both events:


Single outright plays: +4.71 units (Palhares, Weidman, Cavalcante)

Props without arbing: +3.545 units

Arbs: +1.967



Total Profit for UFC Versus 3 and Strikeforce: Columbus: +10.222 units

Thats rough. Hendo was -140 at closing. Couldve arbed out on feijao.

Originally Posted by omalley21

Thats rough. Hendo was -140 at closing. Couldve arbed out on feijao.

Yeah, actually got to -128 on Pinnacle, but I probly wouldnt of arbed anyway as I'd made almost 12 units from the UFC event so had a nice windfall to fall back on. I'll take the +10.222 units all day, could of been worse!

he will just wipe away his tears with his stacks of money

UFC Fight Night 24 Plays:

15.919 units on Davis/Nogueira to go the distance at -120 to win 13.266 units;

8.131 units on Davis by decision at +175 to win 14.229 units.

how much is a unit vaughany

Originally Posted by FlashinLeather

how much is a unit vaughany

£10

UFC 128 Plays:

3 units on Miller/Shalorus to go the distance at +110 to win 3.3 units (also have a free bet worth 5 units on the fight going distance but wont include this on my record on here);

1 unit on Schaub by decision at +400 to win 4 units;

0.086 units on Wineland by decision at +800 to win 0.688 units.

nice!

damn, i really want a piece of that +400, is that paddy's line? almost an identical price to "schaub by decision" against Gonzaga

doubt we see 5dimes put up anything better than +300.

Originally Posted by illmatick

nice!

damn, i really want a piece of that +400, is that paddy's line? almost an identical price to "schaub by decision" against Gonzaga

doubt we see 5dimes put up anything better than +300.

Yeah, paddy's. I expect +250 to +310 range on 5dimes/Sportbet. I'll add some on Schaub KO of the Night as well at +550 or better.