I really need a Euro beard.
o i see. yeah +3300 is very appealing
but hunt is a k1 champ! i think sbr had him at +190 so i went all in
im more of a predict who will win guy, the numbers still confuse me....
noob question of the day.....
whats arb......
ha yeah I forgot about my betpoints, should of put them on some of the underdogs on tht undercard.Originally Posted by RaiderNation MMA
o i see. yeah +3300 is very appealing
but hunt is a k1 champ! i think sbr had him at +190 so i went all in
im more of a predict who will win guy, the numbers still confuse me....
noob question of the day.....
whats arb......
Arb (arbitrage betting)/arbing is basically betting markets due to bookmakers' different opinions on event outcomes, or taking under-valued openers that u expect will change significantly later on and therefore be able to bet on the opponent (or opposite) so that it is a risk free play. So you're using the differences in the odds provided by bookmakers on selected events to make yourself a guaranteed RISK FREE profit. So for example's sake, Bookmaker may have Shogun at +175 whilst Pinnacle may have Jon Jones at -165. It would be possible to play both of these with no risk of losing money, although in this case the guaranteed profit margin would be very low even if you put a grand on each so would not be worth it. You'll get greater potential guaranteed profit margin by catching the openers and judging line movement. For instance, when Jeremy Stephens ridiculously came out as on Sportsbook as a +110 underdog against Marcus Davis it was quite obvious that that line was way off and that it would get hammered. So even if u personally thought Davis would win the fight, an experienced arbitrage bettor would hammer that Stephens line with as much $ as possible, as it was a 99% certainty tht Stephens would end up a considerably big favourite - which of course ended up happening with Davis reaching +260 underdog on Pinnacle by fight time. So if u'd caught tht opener and put $500 on Stephens at +110 u'd of been in a very nice position as u could of "arbed" out with Davis at +260 for a substantial guaranteed profit. So to be able to be successful with arb betting u really need to have numerous accounts with different books and also a good understanding of potential line movement. There's a chance that a good arb opportunity may present itself this week with the Chris Weidman vs Sakara fight. If Weidman comes out as a dog against Sakara before their fight on Thursday, it would be smart to hammer his line as he has a lot of hype and superior wrestling to Sakara so will probably end up being the favourite.
Last edited by Vaughany; 02-27-11 at 03:51 PM.
ha yeah I forgot about my betpoints, should of put them on some of the underdogs on tht undercard.
Arb (arbitrage betting)/arbing is basically betting markets due to bookmakers' different opinions on event outcomes, or taking under-valued openers that u expect will change significantly later on and therefore be able to bet on the opponent (or opposite) so that it is a risk free play. So you're using the differences in the odds provided by bookmakers on selected events to make yourself a guaranteed RISK FREE profit. So for example's sake, Bookmaker may have Shogun at +175 whilst Pinnacle may have Jon Jones at -165. It would be possible to play both of these with no risk of losing money, although in this case the guaranteed profit margin would be very low even if you put a grand on each so would not be worth it. You'll get greater potential guaranteed profit margin by catching the openers and judging line movement. For instance, when Jeremy Stephens ridiculously came out as on Sportsbook as a +110 underdog against Marcus Davis it was quite obvious that that line was way off and that it would get hammered. So even if u personally thought Davis would win the fight, an experienced arbitrage bettor would hammer that Stephens line with as much $ as possible, as it was a 99% certainty tht Stephens would end up a considerably big favourite - which of course ended up happening with Davis reaching +260 underdog on Pinnacle by fight time. So if u'd caught tht opener and put $500 on Stephens at +110 u'd of been in a very nice position as u could of "arbed" out with Davis at +260 for a substantial guaranteed profit. So to be able to be successful with arb betting u really need to have numerous accounts with different books and also a good understanding of potential line movement. There's a chance that a good arb opportunity may present itself this week with the Chris Weidman vs Sakara fight. If Weidman comes out as a dog against Sakara before their fight on Thursday, it would be smart to hammer his line as he has a lot of hype and superior wrestling to Sakara so will probably end up being the favourite.
ooooooo i see i seee
so basically your just scanning all the books for lines you think will flip flop and then you bet against that so you cant really lose. i think i understand now!
man i just broke that down in my mind, thats crazy good how ppl do that
u seem like a very experienced dude, its good to have guys like u around to help teach as im still kinda young and learning the game.
so just to clarify
if anderson silva came out as a +500
i would put 100 on him
then after awhile it shifted so GSP is at +250
i put 100 on him too
that way if gsp loses i make my 500
but if ando loses i still make 250?
is that right?
So how long is that SF heavyweight tournament money tied up for
ha gd question! F**k knws! I'll be happy if I see a return by 2013!So how long is that SF heavyweight tournament money tied up for
Almost, when you say make do you mean overall return or actual profit? If you mean return then you are correct, but if you mean profit than you have to remember that no matter who wins u'l be losing one half of the total 200 stake (as u'd have 100 on Fighter A and 100 on Fighter B) and you wouldn't coutn your original 100 stake on Anderson. So if Anderson won u'd have a return of 600 (100 stake plus 500 winnings), but of course u'd lose the 100 that u had on GSP so ur actual profit would be 400 (600 minus 100 stake on Anderson = 500, minus 100 stake on GSP = 400). If GSP won your actual profit would be 150 as u'd have 350 return (stake of 100 plus 250 winnings)...350 minus the stake of 100 and stake of 100 for Anderson bet would give you 150 profit.so just to clarify
if anderson silva came out as a +500
i would put 100 on him
then after awhile it shifted so GSP is at +250
i put 100 on him too
that way if gsp loses i make my 500
but if ando loses i still make 250?
is that right?
Last edited by Vaughany; 02-28-11 at 04:21 AM.
If you want to place anymore future SF tournament bets, and this goes for all not just Vaughany, you can do so at the brand new betting site called Poppa C's bank account.
Remember when ze SF > UFC crew was talking non stop about how awesome this tournament was, uh yeah......
Hey V, what do you think about Roller/Tavares? I'm considering hitting up Roller based on his wrestling. He's seen some slight movement on him since opening right around even at most books and I don't wanna end up paying more juice if it keeps moving.
I'm really not sure about this one, I lean Roller because like u say the wrestling advantage, only concern is his cardio and Tavares isn't exactly going to be easy to dominate on the ground. I agree tho tht if u are gonna take him probly best to do it soon (-106 on sportbet) as he'll probly get more action than Tavares.Hey V, what do you think about Roller/Tavares? I'm considering hitting up Roller based on his wrestling. He's seen some slight movement on him since opening right around even at most books and I don't wanna end up paying more juice if it keeps moving.
Wow, looks like the Lytle surgery rumours were indeed true... http://www.mmafighting.com/2011/02/2...rgery-ufc-127/Hey V. Have you heard anything regarding Chris Lytle and a possible recent knee surgery? He's my biggest play and I'm getting nervous hearing these whispers last minute. I saw a mention of it on cagepotato, though they far from confirmed it.
I should of looked in to it more perhaps!
ooo i see yeah i meant return but i see what ur saying now with profit. sweet i got it
That's the reason I like Tavares in this one. Maybe a late submission after Roller gasses out.I'm really not sure about this one, I lean Roller because like u say the wrestling advantage, only concern is his cardio and Tavares isn't exactly going to be easy to dominate on the ground. I agree tho tht if u are gonna take him probly best to do it soon (-106 on sportbet) as he'll probly get more action than Tavares.
I don't think Roller will be able to keep Tavares down. He'll probably get a few takedowns but gas himself out in the process. Roller's top control and ground game is too sloppy to handle Tavares imo.
