Vaughany's MMA Picks...

Originally Posted by xelance

what do you think about Condit -185 vs Lytle? I think it is a great bet..but looking for opinions

Really not sure about this one, Lytle is continually under-rated, especially his BJJ. His subs on Brown and Foster were slick and Condit can be quite erratic at times (similar to Foster). However, Condit's reach and pace is going to give him an advantage but I personally dont think it warrants the -196 odds that he is at now (best you can get him at on Sportbet). I'd of taken Condit at -150 or better but think best he's been at was -170. I think the best bet is for fight to go to decision at -140 on Sportbet or Condit by decision when it comes out. I managed to get fight go to decision at Evens and should of gone a hell of a lot bigger on it as it was bound to move to -150 range.

Originally Posted by Vaughany

UFC 128 Play:

5 units on Jon Jones at -160 to win 3.125 units (plus stake).

I managed to get -180. Hopefully Shogun is a huge dog by fight night for guaranteed profit.

Strikeforce: Fedor vs Silva Plays:

0.273 units on Kharitonov by TKO/KO at +250 to win 0.683 units;

0.2 units on Fedor by TKO/KO at +225 to win 0.45 units;

0.1 units on Arlovski by decision at +400 to win 0.4 units.

Very small plays due to bet limits but I don't like putting much on Strikeforce events anyway. See value in all three of these as the odds for Fedor by TKO/KO or more like +140 to +170 range on most sites, Kharitonov by TKO/KO is like +200 to +215 and Arlovski by decision is between +330 to +350 range.

Strikeforce: Columbus Play:

1.4 units on Rafael Cavalcante at +225 to win 3.15 units.

Additional UFC 127 Play:

0.777 units on Noke/Camozzi to decision at -120 to win 0.648 units.

0.357 units on Overeem by TKO/KO at +187.5 to win 0.669 units.

Love the Overeem prop! Hopping aboard there as well.

No play yet on Miesha Tate w/ upset over Coenen?

Originally Posted by Poppa Catfish

No play yet on Miesha Tate w/ upset over Coenen?

Considering it for sure, need to watch some footage of Tate first tho...as we've said before, no female fighter should ever be a +150 or worse dog unless she's facing Cyborg!

Yeah, not a lot of separation in skills in that division except the previously mentioned female impersonator.

I've watched a little tape, its nowhere near the slam dunk that was Nunes, but I think Tate can steal a decision here.

Originally Posted by Poppa Catfish

Yeah, not a lot of separation in skills in that division except the previously mentioned female impersonator.

I've watched a little tape, its nowhere near the slam dunk that was Nunes, but I think Tate can steal a decision here.

Yeah decision seems most likely to me as well, gonna wait and see if Paddy release that prop closer to the fight...unlikely tho as it's a Bitch fight!

0.05 units on Shogun by Submission at +1800 to win 0.9 units.

Strikeforce: Fedor vs Silva Play:

75 units on Villante at -170 to win 44.118 units;

37 units on Griggs at +206 to win 76.22 units.

Risk free bet: 1.22 units profit if Griggs wins, or 7.118 units profit if Villante wins.

Originally Posted by Vaughany

Strikeforce: Fedor vs Silva Plays:

0.273 units on Kharitonov by TKO/KO at +250 to win 0.683 units;

0.2 units on Fedor by TKO/KO at +225 to win 0.45 units;

0.1 units on Arlovski by decision at +400 to win 0.4 units.

Very small plays due to bet limits but I don't like putting much on Strikeforce events anyway. See value in all three of these as the odds for Fedor by TKO/KO or more like +140 to +170 range on most sites, Kharitonov by TKO/KO is like +200 to +215 and Arlovski by decision is between +330 to +350 range.

Adding:

0.5 units on Fedor by Submission at +500 to win 2.5 units;

0.1 units on Fedor by TKO/KO at +162.5 to win 0.163 units;

0.062 units on Del Rosario, Fedor/Silva goes the distance, Not Kharitonov by submission, & Marquardt to win 0.45 units.

you are the freakin master at arbs Vaughany