He's +160 at several books now.
So is there any arb bets?Originally Posted by urge2kill
He's +160 at several books now.
I'm only on Bodog right now, so I don't even have any props.
No arbs for Americans that I see, unless you're dumb enough to play at SBG Global who has Gracie at -155.
Prangley is at +160 on Bodog.I only have Sportbet and Bookmaker accounts, still +150 and +155 on them. Would need to be at least +160 to make the arb worthwhile as I can get Gracie at -137.5 on StanJames.He's +160 at several books now.
Bookmaker just hit +160.
ha yeah but unfortunetly the odds for Gracie have changed now as well on stanjames to 4/7Bookmaker just hit +160.
Additional UFC 126 play:
2 units on Anderson Silva by TKO/KO at +200 to win 4 units (plus stake).
Baby bump!
Kidding, like the play bro
Summary of UFC 126 Plays so far:
Parlay: 0.837 units on Mitrione, Barry, Hominick, & Ellenberger to win 2.17 units (plus stake);
2 units on Anderson Silva by TKO/KO at +200 to win 4 units (plus stake);
0.9 units on Yamamoto/MightyMouse! to go the Distance at +137.5 to win 1.238 units (plus stake);
0.54 units on Miguel Torres by decision at +250 to win 1.35 units (plus stake);
2.195 units on Griffin/Franklin to decision at +120 to win 2.634 units (plus stake);
0.43 units on Griffin/Franklin to decision at Evens to win 0.43 units (plus stake);
1.5 units on Bader at +285 to win 4.275 units (plus stake);
0.5 units on Jon Jones by decision at +400 to win 2 units (plus stake).
Going in to the event on -1.256 as Coy screwed the following parlay:
Parlay: 1.256 units on Coy, Diaz, & Anderson Silva to win 1.843 units (plus stake).
Additional 126 play:
6 units on Romero at +115 to win 6.9 units (plus stake).
Last edited by Vaughany; 02-01-11 at 04:57 PM.
Wow big on Romero huh? I thought u were liking Kingsbury?Additional 126 play:
6 units on Romero at +115 to win 6.9 units (plus stake).
Yee pretty big for me! I was always liking Romero in this one but I expected Kingsbury to come out as an undervalued dog (due to Romero being the superior wrestler and because of his impressive comeback against Petruzelli) so was going to take Kingsbury at +175 or better. Was anticipating Romero to come out at -140 to -190 range or something along those lines so couldn't help but go bigger than usual at the +115 odds available.Wow big on Romero huh? I thought u were liking Kingsbury?
IMO Romero has an advantage in both wrestling and BJJ. He has Div1 Wrestling experience at Rutgers with 94 wins at 197lbs. He earned No10 National Ranking at one point during his college career. He also has a purple belt in Gracie BJJ and owns a 1st round sub win over Nova Uniao black belt Silmar Rodrigo. For me this does not bode well for Kingsbury who has struggled in the past against wrestlers and been susceptible to submissions. Both Soszynski and Bader subbed Kingsbury on TUF and Tom Lawler (a natural 185lb'er) decisioned him at the finale. In his last two fights in the UFC Kingsbu didn't have to worry about a significant grappling threat as Hamann and Al-Hassan are predominantly stand-up based. In fact, Kingsbu even had the edge in wrestling and was able to score significant points against both fighters through takedowns (Kingsbury used his size advantage to clinch with Hamman against the cage whenever he started taking shots from Hamman and get take downs, mostly in first round). He showed limited ability to control Hamann when he did get him to the ground, as Hamman was able to pop right back up everytime. Moreover, both Hamman and Al-Hassan are tall rangy strikers who aren't very bulky 205ers and Kingsbu clearly had a strength advantage which helped a lot. Against Romero, although he will still have a height and reach advantage, he wont necessarily have a strength advantage as Romero has a very different body type to Al-Hassan and Hamann (built more like a bull!). One area that Kingsbury may have an advantage in is cardio. However, Romero had his jaw broken in the first round against Petruzelli and this undoubtely effected his breathing and along with the first time octagon 'jitters' it was not surprising that he looked gassed out before pulling off the submission. Training with the likes of the Miller brothers and Charlie Brenneman at AMA I think Romero's cardio will be okay and more vitally his grit and determination will narrow the margin. Overall, the key for a Romero win will be to pressure Kingsbu early against the cage and drag him to the mat and from there work a submission such as a keylock, arm-triangle, or kimura. Even if Romero stands with Kingsbury, he has shown that he has a granite chin and some power so will be able to hang there. Im not convinced that Kingsbury's takedown and submission defence will have improved enough since his time on TUF and that Romero will eventually find a way to get this to the ground and submit Kingsbu.
5 units on Mighty Mouse at +120 to win 6 units (plus stake).
I will be looking to arb this with Yamamoto at -109 or better on Pinnacle. I think based on the line movement that there's a chance that Might Mouse ends up as favourite or Yamamoto at least improves from -109 to Evens.
Great write up on Romaro, I think you convinced who to bet in this fight.
I wouldn't underestimate Kingsburys TDD as it is much improved since working at AKA. And Romero`s TDs are usually telegraphed which will help Kingsbury with the sprawl. Also, if anyone has seen Romero`s ROC fights, he`s had the size advantage in most of his fights. He`s been able to bully ppl against the cage and drag them down. Or when he gets in trouble on the feet, he`s been able to shoot with some sloppy singles to pull off the TD. That isn`t going to work against a big Kingsbury and he`s going to be forced to stand for portions of this fight against Kingsbury`s reach and better boxing. Romeros best chance is to try and finish this early while he is fresh and the fighters arent slippery. His cardio is suspect and he carries some excess weight for a 205lber. GL with your bet, but I will most likely be on the other side if I can get Kingsbury around the Sportsbook opener of -115 as I missed it.
