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Vaughany's MMA Picks...

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#616

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I followed you on the Barry and Hominick plays. I have concerns with Roop and Beltran utilizing takedowns to win, but you're a better fight picker than me. Considering the drastic talent difference in the standup, Hominick and Barry still have value here. Beltran has nothing for Barry standing and is a super easy matchup for him if he stands. Roop may give problems to Hominick with his reach though. But still, Hominick is a top level striker and Roop just started becoming good at striking. Good luck.

From what you've seen, do you think Roop can win this via takedowns? That's my main concern of the two fights.
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#617

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Quote Originally Posted by koscheckbaby View Post
I followed you on the Barry and Hominick plays. I have concerns with Roop and Beltran utilizing takedowns to win, but you're a better fight picker than me. Considering the drastic talent difference in the standup, Hominick and Barry still have value here. Beltran has nothing for Barry standing and is a super easy matchup for him if he stands. Roop may give problems to Hominick with his reach though. But still, Hominick is a top level striker and Roop just started becoming good at striking. Good luck.

From what you've seen, do you think Roop can win this via takedowns? That's my main concern of the two fights.
From what I've read and seen in interviews Hominick has been working hard on his wrestling at Brock University along side Sean Pierson who is one of the best wrestlers in Canada. Moreover, Roop doesnt exactly have an illustrious wrestling background. If he had a wrestling background such as even being a Div 2 qualifier or decent college level wrestler I'd be concerned, but even though he showed he has takedowns against the likes of Garcia and Polakowski on TUF, this doesnt mean he's gonna be able to do it against Hominick. Firstly, as we know, Garcia is aggressive, wild and wide-open meaning that most WEC/UFC level guys should be able to take him down. Also he tried to choke out Roop twice with a guillotine after he was taken down so he may have even been letting Roop take him down just so that he could go for the guillotine. As far as I can remember Garcia got back to his feet pretty easily after Roop took him down and after the the second guillotine attempt Roop even stood back up which suggested he wasnt confident in keeping the fight on the ground. Moreover, Roop's takedown defence isnt great in itself, Dave Kaplan was able to take him down in their fight. I dont foresee Hominick having any issues getting back to his feet if Roop does take him down or even reversing Roop on the ground and submitting him. Of course with the dodgy judges anything is possible and they might give Roop a decision if Hominick doesnt finish him. Afterall, Hominick only got a split-decision against Garcia even tho he took no more than a couple of leg kicks and a couple of grazing punches in 3 rounds! So with this in mind it might be worth included the fight to go to decision either as a hedge or within a couple of parlays.
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#619

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curious to see if roop is as good as many seem to think....the height is a real issue...but i`m not sure whether exciting fights vs garcia and k.z. means he beats a guy like hominick...

he won`t be the first to fool people by being involved in and exciting exciting fight with leonard garcia...

korean zombie fooled quite a few off an exciting fight with garcia..and turned out to be another garcia clone...one dimensional with lousy defense...this kind of kamikaze style works with some...but in the ufc,it shouldn`t work for too long(unless the judges keep crediting guys for spasms of unproductive activity over guys that pick their spots and actually land the punches that they throw)

other than garcia and k.z.,i see nothing on roop`s record that makes me think he beats an experienced,well rounded guy like hominick...

but......every day is "anything can happen" day in mma...
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#620

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Quote Originally Posted by rocky mattioli View Post
curious to see if roop is as good as many seem to think....the height is a real issue...but i`m not sure whether exciting fights vs garcia and k.z. means he beats a guy like hominick...

he won`t be the first to fool people by being involved in and exciting exciting fight with leonard garcia...

korean zombie fooled quite a few off an exciting fight with garcia..and turned out to be another garcia clone...one dimensional with lousy defense...this kind of kamikaze style works with some...but in the ufc,it shouldn`t work for too long(unless the judges keep crediting guys for spasms of unproductive activity over guys that pick their spots and actually land the punches that they throw)

other than garcia and k.z.,i see nothing on roop`s record that makes me think he beats an experienced,well rounded guy like hominick...

but......every day is "anything can happen" day in mma...
Hit the nail on the head there Rocky.
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#623

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Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
Summary of Fight for the Troops 2 Plays so far: 2.5 units on Hominick at -224 to win 1.116 units (plus stake); 0.2 units on Hominick by Submission at +400 to win 0.8 units (plus stake); 1 unit on Wiman at +190 to win 1.9 units (plus stake); 1.746 units on C.Miller/Wiman to decision at -137.5 to win 1.27 units (plus stake); 0.211 units on Wiman by KO at +750 to win 1.582 units (plus stake); 0.4 units on Mitrione by Decision at +333 to win 1.333 units (plus stake); 0.05 units on Beltran by Submission at +1400 to win 0.7 units (plus stake); Parlay: 0.837 units on Mitrione, Barry, Hominick, & Ellenberger to win 2.17 units (plus stake).
dude u make wayyyy too many bets
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#625

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0.1 units on Guymon by decision at +500 to win 0.5 units (plus stake);

0.05 units on Damarques Johnson by submission at +350 to win 0.175 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Edwards by TKO/KO at +400 to win 0.4 units (plus stake);

0.05 units on McKenzie by submission at +333 to win 0.167 units (plus stake).
Last edited by Vaughany; 01-19-11 at 12:22 PM.
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#627

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I dont know what Paddypower have against Kyle Noke (maybe they're anti-Australian?!) but they brought him out as the dog once again (as they did against Kimmons)!...

5.55 units (max bet allowed unfortunatley) on Noke at +125 to win 6.944 units (plus stake).

Will arb this with Camozzi towards end of February before the event. Im thinking the Noke line of -166 on Pinnacle should get some action which in turn should improve the current +150 Camozzi line. Hopefully will get him at +160 to +175 range by fight time.
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#628

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Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
I dont know what Paddypower have against Kyle Noke (maybe they're anti-Australian?!) but they brought him out as the dog once again (as they did against Kimmons)!... 5.55 units (max bet allowed unfortunatley) on Noke at +125 to win 6.944 units (plus stake). Will arb this with Camozzi towards end of February before the event. Im thinking the Noke line of -166 on Pinnacle should get some action which in turn should improve the current +150 Camozzi line. Hopefully will get him at +160 to +175 range by fight time.
WTF!!! why do I always miss when the bookmaker release their odds. Now paddy has Noke at -175, would have loved to get him at +125, this makes me ******* sick as a mofo
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#629

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Quote Originally Posted by Mr.Kitty View Post
WTF!!! why do I always miss when the bookmaker release their odds. Now paddy has Noke at -175, would have loved to get him at +125, this makes me ******* sick as a mofo
ha sorry bro, they changed it to -175 about 5 minutes after I placed my bet! Pays to be sharp with paddy and check at least 5 times a day!
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